Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest – 26 Oct 2025

Premier League Gameweek 9 Sun, Oct 26 · 14:00 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 5th · 15 pts · 8 played WDDWD

2–0Full time

Nottingham Forest 18th · 5 pts · 8 played LDLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bournemouth were slight favourites.

Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 62). Bournemouth had 8 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 2.8 and had to travel 253 km.

Away travel253 kmRest days8 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Bournemouth53%

Draw24%

Nottingham Forest23%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.12

Bournemouth53%

Draw25%

Nottingham Forest22%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.04

Bournemouth54%

Draw24%

Nottingham Forest22%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.12

Bournemouth45%

Draw26%

Nottingham Forest29%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.26

Bournemouth52%

Draw25%

Nottingham Forest23%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.05

Over 2.5 56% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

No weather data yet

RefereeSamuel Barrott

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 65

Team strength

Bournemouth

Nottingham Forest

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 62

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 70

83 AttackIn forecast 68

82 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Nottingham Forest

1.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63

1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.88

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81

+0.44 Goals minus xGContext -0.51

88% Scored inContext 38%

38% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.38 ShotsContext 11.50

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75

36% On target shareContext 33%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.75

60% Box shareContext 69%

14% ConversionContext 5%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.80

11.38 Shots allowedContext 13.00

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.38

3.13 BlocksContext 4.00

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

68% Save rateContext 65%

51% PossessionIn forecast 55%

418 PassesContext 498

337 Accurate passesContext 429

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.69

12.00 FoulsContext 11.63

11.25 Fouls sufferedContext 11.25

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 1.45

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.61

+0.37 Goals minus xGContext -0.65

90% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.70 ShotsContext 12.70

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

35% On target shareContext 34%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.70

60% Box shareContext 70%

13% ConversionContext 6%

2.30 OffsidesContext 1.83

10.60 Shots allowedContext 12.00

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

3.00 BlocksContext 3.75

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

64% Save rateContext 59%

51% PossessionIn forecast 54%

426 PassesContext 488

346 Accurate passesContext 421

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.70

12.80 FoulsContext 12.90

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km301 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nottingham Forest

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel253 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Oct	2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	253 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	301 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 44V. Milosavljević 20Álex Jiménez

12T. Adams 8A. Scott

24A. Semenyo 19J. Kluivert 16M. Tavernier

22E. Kroupi

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26M. Sels(G)

3N. Williams 5Murillo 31N. Milenković 37N. Savona

8E. Anderson 12Douglas Luiz

7C. Hudson-Odoi 10M. Gibbs-White 14D. Ndoye

19Igor Jesus

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nottingham Forest Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth-0.5 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Nottingham Forest+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.50

Nottingham Forest · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Bournemouth	Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace	D 3–3 A	D 1–1 A
Newcastle	D 0–0 H	L 0–2 A
Points	2 of 6 · 1.00 per game	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Bournemouth wins3 draws0 Nottingham Forest wins

Goals per game2.13 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

25 Jan 2025Bournemouth5–0Nottingham Forest
17 Aug 2024Nottingham Forest1–1Bournemouth
4 Feb 2024Bournemouth1–1Nottingham Forest
23 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest2–3Bournemouth
21 Jan 2023Bournemouth1–1Nottingham Forest
3 Sep 2022Nottingham Forest2–3Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	1.75	0.63
Conceded per game	1.38	1.88
Match goals	3.13	2.50	2.94
Over 1.5	63%	88%
Over 2.5	63%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	50%	13%
Both teams scored	63%	38%	57%
Clean sheets	38%	0%
Failed to score	13%	63%
Games	8	8

	Bournemouth	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	1.75	0.80
Conceded per game	1.38	1.90
Match goals	3.13	2.70	2.94
Over 1.5	63%	90%
Over 2.5	63%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	63%	40%	57%
Clean sheets	38%	10%
Failed to score	13%	50%
Games	8	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	5.29	4.75
Corners conceded	4.43	4.88
Match total	9.72	9.63	9.81
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	57% 4/7	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.00
Opponent cards	2.13	1.63
Match total	4.63	3.63	3.73
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	50% 4/8	38% 3/8

	Bournemouth	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	4.89	4.90
Corners conceded	3.89	5.30
Match total	8.78	10.20	9.81
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.20
Opponent cards	2.10	1.80
Match total	4.50	4.00	3.73
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Samuel Barrott 65 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.72league 3.62

Red cards0.08league 0.12

Cards 5+34%league 40%

Fouls20.7league 22.0

Penalties0.23league 0.20

Home wins37%league 49%

Bournemouth3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

D19 Apr 25A · Crystal Palace0–04
W30 Mar 24H · Everton2–11
W28 Oct 23H · Burnley2–12

Nottingham Forest6 with this referee

Record3-2-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

W18 May 25A · West Ham2–13
W14 Dec 24H · Aston Villa2–10
W24 Aug 24A · Southampton1–03
L24 Feb 24A · Aston Villa2–42
D9 Dec 23A · Wolves1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.