Brentford
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Brentford22.5%fair odds 4.45
Draw24.8%fair odds 4.03
Arsenal52.7%fair odds 1.90
Expected goals1.06 – 1.74total 2.81
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Arsenal
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Brentford ↓ · Arsenal → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Brentford goals, columns Arsenal goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.48
- 0–19.9%10.07
- 1–29.8%10.25
- 0–29.2%10.90
- 0–06.6%15.09
- 2–16.0%16.78
- 1–05.8%17.15
- 1–35.7%17.63
- 0–35.3%18.76
- 2–25.2%19.26
Winning margin
2.5%
Brentford by 3+
fair 40.58
6.1%
Brentford by 2
fair 16.43
13.9%
Brentford by 1
fair 7.17
24.8%
Draw
fair 4.03
23.2%
Arsenal by 1
fair 4.31
16.3%
Arsenal by 2
fair 6.12
13.1%
Arsenal by 3+
fair 7.61
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Brentford goals
35%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
Arsenal goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
15%3
10%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 22.5% | 22.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 24.8% | 26.2% | -1.4 pp |
| Arsenal win | 52.7% | 51.0% | +1.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 48.0% | +5.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.6% | 50.9% | +3.8 pp |
| Expected goals Brentford | 1.06 | 0.99 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Arsenal | 1.74 | 1.60 | +0.14 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Brentford win22.5%4.45
- Draw24.8%4.03
- Arsenal win52.7%1.90
- Double chance Brentford or draw47.3%2.11
- Double chance Brentford or Arsenal75.2%1.33
- Double chance Arsenal or draw77.5%1.29
- Draw no bet Brentford29.9%3.34
- Draw no bet Arsenal70.1%1.43
Goals
- Over 0.593.4%1.07
- Over 1.577.6%1.29
- Over 2.553.2%1.88
- Over 3.531.0%3.23
- Over 4.515.3%6.52
- Under 1.522.4%4.47
- Under 2.546.8%2.14
- Under 3.569.0%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes54.6%1.83
- No45.4%2.20
- Yes and over 2.542.8%2.33
- Brentford win and yes11.6%8.60
- Draw and yes18.2%5.50
- Arsenal win and yes24.8%4.03
Team goals
- Brentford over 0.565.5%1.53
- Brentford over 1.528.8%3.47
- Brentford over 2.59.2%10.81
- Arsenal over 0.582.5%1.21
- Arsenal over 1.552.0%1.92
- Arsenal over 2.525.4%3.93
- Brentford clean sheet17.5%5.72
- Arsenal clean sheet34.5%2.90
- Brentford win to nil10.9%9.20
- Arsenal win to nil27.9%3.59
Handicap
- Brentford −1.58.6%11.69
- Brentford −2.52.5%40.58
- Arsenal +1.591.4%1.09
- Arsenal +2.597.5%1.03
- Arsenal −1.529.5%3.39
- Brentford +1.570.5%1.42
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored259
Favourite won49.8%
Avg chance given to result39.4%
1X2 Brier0.616
Over 2.5 called right54.4%
BTTS called right55.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37 | 38.2% | 40.5% |
| 40–50% | 95 | 44.9% | 44.2% |
| 50–60% | 71 | 54.6% | 52.1% |
| 60–70% | 33 | 64.2% | 57.6% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 73.4% | 65.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 229 of 259 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6181 | 0.6047 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.4% | 40.2% |
| Favourite won | 49.3% | 51.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 229 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 259 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.