Brentford vs Arsenal – 12 Feb 2026

Premier League Gameweek 26 Thu, Feb 12 · 20:00 Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex

Brentford 7th · 39 pts · 25 played WLLWW

1–1Full time

Arsenal 1st · 56 pts · 25 played DDLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were slight favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 76). Absences weigh more on Arsenal. Brentford had 5.1 days of rest, Arsenal 5.2 and had to travel 13 km.

Away travel13 kmRest days5.1 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Brentford22%

Draw25%

Arsenal53%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.74

Brentford21%

Draw25%

Arsenal54%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.75

Brentford22%

Draw24%

Arsenal54%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.78

Brentford17%

Draw23%

Arsenal60%

Expected goals 0.95 – 1.95

Brentford23%

Draw26%

Arsenal51%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.60

Over 2.5 53% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)

No weather data yet

RefereeJohn Brooks

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 98

Team strength

Brentford

Arsenal

76 L90 StrengthIn forecast 94

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 94

73 AttackIn forecast 86

73 DefenceIn forecast 95

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brentford

Arsenal

1.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.96

1.36 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.68

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.67

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

72% Scored inContext 88%

24% Clean sheetsContext 52%

10.32 ShotsContext 14.92

4.08 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.04

40% On target shareContext 34%

7.95 Shots in the boxContext 11.28

72% Box shareContext 75%

15% ConversionContext 13%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.11

12.84 Shots allowedContext 7.60

4.04 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.65

4.56 BlocksContext 3.00

3.05 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.94

70% Save rateContext 73%

47% PossessionIn forecast 57%

390 PassesContext 482

310 Accurate passesContext 410

80% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.87 Team ratingContext 7.05

11.24 FoulsContext 10.08

9.25 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

1.96 Yellow cardsContext 1.36

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

2.06 xGVia Att/Def 2.05

1.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.55

70% Scored inContext 80%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.00 ShotsContext 15.50

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

43% On target shareContext 36%

9.11 Shots in the boxContext 11.30

73% Box shareContext 72%

16% ConversionContext 17%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.56

12.50 Shots allowedContext 9.10

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.88

4.80 BlocksContext 3.56

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.17

78% Save rateContext 68%

53% PossessionIn forecast 54%

459 PassesContext 441

379 Accurate passesContext 370

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.06 Team ratingContext 7.03

10.40 FoulsContext 11.60

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brentford

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,105 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Arsenal

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel13 km544 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brentford	Arsenal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.1Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Feb	5.2Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	13 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,105 km	544 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8.8	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

3R. Henry 4S. van den Berg 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode

27V. Janelt 18Y. Yarmoliuk

23K. Lewis-Potter 8M. Jensen 19D. Ouattara

9Thiago

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1David Raya(G)

5P. Hincapié 6Gabriel Magalhães 3Cristhian Mosquera 12J. Timber

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi

19L. Trossard 10E. Eze 20C. Madueke

14V. Gyökeres

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brentford Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Arsenal Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brentford+0.8 pp
Draw+0.4 pp
Arsenal-1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Brentford · Home 2.00points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 7-3-2
Scored: 1.92
Conceded: 1.00

Arsenal · Away 2.00points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 7-3-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Brentford	Arsenal
Newcastle	W 3–2 AW 3–1 H	W 2–1 A
Aston Villa	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H	W 4–1 HL 1–2 A
Nottingham Forest	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H
Chelsea	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	D 1–1 A
Sunderland	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A	W 3–0 HD 2–2 A
Everton	W 4–2 A	W 1–0 A
Tottenham	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A	W 4–1 H
Bournemouth	W 4–1 H	W 3–2 A
Wolves	W 2–0 A	W 2–1 H
Leeds	D 1–1 H	W 4–0 AW 5–0 H
Burnley	W 3–1 H	W 2–0 A
Brighton	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
Crystal Palace	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 H
Liverpool	W 3–2 H	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
West Ham	W 2–0 A	W 2–0 H
Manchester City	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 H
Manchester United	W 3–1 H	L 2–3 HW 1–0 A
Fulham	L 1–3 A	W 1–0 A
Points	39 of 72 · 1.63 per game	53 of 72 · 2.21 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 Brentford wins2 draws6 Arsenal wins

Goals per game0.78 – 1.67 Over 2.544% Both scored56% Clean sheets11% · 33%

3 Dec 2025Arsenal2–0Brentford
12 Apr 2025Arsenal1–1Brentford
1 Jan 2025Brentford1–3Arsenal
9 Mar 2024Arsenal2–1Brentford
25 Nov 2023Brentford0–1Arsenal
11 Feb 2023Arsenal1–1Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brentford	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.56	1.96
Conceded per game	1.36	0.68
Match goals	2.92	2.64	2.81
Over 1.5	84%	72%
Over 2.5	52%	52%	53%
Over 3.5	40%	28%
Both teams scored	52%	44%	55%
Clean sheets	24%	52%
Failed to score	28%	12%
Games	25	25

	Brentford	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	2.10
Conceded per game	1.00	0.80
Match goals	2.80	2.90	2.81
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	53%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	40%	50%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brentford	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	5.08	6.17
Corners conceded	5.29	3.26
Match total	10.37	9.43	9.98
Over 8.5	75% 18/24	52% 12/23
Over 9.5	67% 16/24	48% 11/23
Over 10.5	63% 15/24	48% 11/23
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.36
Opponent cards	1.72	1.72
Match total	3.72	3.08	3.86
Over 3.5	56% 14/25	40% 10/25
Over 4.5	40% 10/25	16% 4/25

	Brentford	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	7.25
Corners conceded	5.80	4.00
Match total	10.40	11.25	9.98
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	75% 6/8
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	75% 6/8
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.50
Opponent cards	1.20	1.60
Match total	3.20	3.10	3.86
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · John Brooks 98 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.35league 3.72

Red cards0.12league 0.12

Cards 5+48%league 38%

Fouls22.6league 21.3

Penalties0.23league 0.22

Home wins55%league 43%

Brentford7 with this referee

Record1-2-4 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 1

L17 Jan 26A · Chelsea0–22
D14 Dec 25H · Leeds1–10
L21 Sep 24A · Tottenham1–31
W28 May 23H · Manchester City1–04
L5 Apr 23A · Manchester United0–12

Arsenal4 with this referee

Record3-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against2 · 0

W27 Dec 25H · Brighton2–12
W4 Oct 25H · West Ham2–00
L2 Nov 24A · Newcastle0–14
W6 Apr 24A · Brighton3–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.