Brentford vs Brighton – 21 Feb 2026

Premier League Gameweek 27 Sat, Feb 21 · 15:00 Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex

Brentford 7th · 40 pts · 26 played LLWWD

0–2Full time

Brighton 14th · 31 pts · 26 played DLDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brentford were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Brentford. Brentford had 8.8 days of rest, Brighton 9.8 and had to travel 71 km.

Away travel71 kmRest days8.8 · 9.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Brentford49%

Draw26%

Brighton25%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.11

Brentford47%

Draw26%

Brighton27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Brentford49%

Draw26%

Brighton25%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.12

Brentford42%

Draw27%

Brighton31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.25

Brentford49%

Draw27%

Brighton25%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.03

Over 2.5 52% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)

No weather data yet

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 100

Team strength

Brentford

Brighton

76 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

73 AttackIn forecast 87

73 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brentford

Brighton

1.54 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.31

1.35 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.31

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

73% Scored inContext 77%

23% Clean sheetsContext 19%

10.38 ShotsContext 12.85

4.04 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.23

39% On target shareContext 33%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.31

72% Box shareContext 66%

15% ConversionContext 10%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.43

12.62 Shots allowedContext 12.27

3.96 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.50 BlocksContext 3.52

2.96 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.77

69% Save rateContext 69%

46% PossessionIn forecast 53%

387 PassesContext 472

307 Accurate passesContext 398

79% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.27 FoulsContext 11.96

9.32 Fouls sufferedContext 10.23

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.42

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.29

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

70% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.50 ShotsContext 11.50

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

39% On target shareContext 32%

9.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.10

73% Box shareContext 73%

14% ConversionContext 10%

2.56 OffsidesContext 2.50

12.30 Shots allowedContext 13.20

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

4.50 BlocksContext 4.38

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

75% Save rateContext 71%

51% PossessionIn forecast 53%

443 PassesContext 486

362 Accurate passesContext 409

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.84

10.10 FoulsContext 12.20

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brentford

Rest8.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km795 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brighton

Rest9.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel71 km439 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brentford	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.8Premier League 2025-2026, 12 Feb	9.8Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	71 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	795 km	439 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

3R. Henry 4S. van den Berg 20K. Ajer 2A. Hickey

27V. Janelt 6J. Henderson

19D. Ouattara 8M. Jensen 23K. Lewis-Potter

9Thiago

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 27M. Wieffer

30P. Groß 20J. Milner 13J. Hinshelwood

22K. Mitoma 18D. Welbeck 25D. Gómez

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brentford Absences are shown before kick-off

Brighton Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brentford+0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Brighton-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Brentford · Home 1.92points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 7-4-2
Scored: 1.85
Conceded: 1.00

Brighton · Away 0.77points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 2-4-7
Scored: 1.08
Conceded: 1.54

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Brentford	Brighton
Arsenal	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A	L 1–2 A
Newcastle	W 3–2 AW 3–1 H	W 2–1 H
Aston Villa	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H	L 0–1 AL 3–4 H
Nottingham Forest	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A	W 2–0 A
Chelsea	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	W 3–1 A
Sunderland	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A	D 0–0 H
Everton	W 4–2 A	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Tottenham	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A	D 2–2 H
Bournemouth	W 4–1 H	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Wolves	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 A
Leeds	D 1–1 H	W 3–0 H
Burnley	W 3–1 H	W 2–0 H
Crystal Palace	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A
Liverpool	W 3–2 H	L 0–2 A
West Ham	W 2–0 A	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H
Manchester City	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Manchester United	W 3–1 H	L 2–4 A
Fulham	L 1–3 A	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Points	40 of 75 · 1.60 per game	28 of 75 · 1.12 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 Brentford wins3 draws4 Brighton wins

Goals per game1.22 – 1.33 Over 2.544% Both scored44% Clean sheets33% · 44%

22 Nov 2025Brighton2–1Brentford
19 Apr 2025Brentford4–2Brighton
27 Dec 2024Brighton0–0Brentford
3 Apr 2024Brentford0–0Brighton
6 Dec 2023Brighton2–1Brentford
1 Apr 2023Brighton3–3Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brentford	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.54	1.31
Conceded per game	1.35	1.31
Match goals	2.88	2.62	2.76
Over 1.5	85%	85%
Over 2.5	50%	46%	52%
Over 3.5	38%	19%
Both teams scored	54%	65%	55%
Clean sheets	23%	19%
Failed to score	27%	23%
Games	26	26

	Brentford	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	0.90
Conceded per game	1.00	1.10
Match goals	2.80	2.00	2.76
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	30%	52%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	55%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brentford	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.12	4.92
Corners conceded	5.24	4.69
Match total	10.36	9.61	9.96
Over 8.5	76% 19/25	58% 15/26
Over 9.5	68% 17/25	54% 14/26
Over 10.5	60% 15/25	46% 12/26
Cards
Cards	2.04	2.42
Opponent cards	1.73	2.15
Match total	3.77	4.57	3.87
Over 3.5	58% 15/26	73% 19/26
Over 4.5	42% 11/26	46% 12/26

	Brentford	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	4.40
Corners conceded	5.90	5.30
Match total	10.70	9.70	9.96
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.30
Opponent cards	1.20	2.50
Match total	3.10	4.80	3.87
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 100 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.65league 3.72

Red cards0.10league 0.11

Cards 5+37%league 38%

Fouls20.1league 21.3

Penalties0.23league 0.22

Home wins38%league 43%

Brentford11 with this referee

Record3-3-5 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.3 Pens for · against2 · 1

L18 May 25H · Fulham2–34
L8 Mar 25H · Aston Villa0–12
L2 Feb 25H · Tottenham0–20
W20 Apr 24A · Luton5–12
D2 Mar 24H · Chelsea2–23

Brighton5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.6 Pens for · against2 · 1

D5 Oct 25A · Wolves1–14
L25 Apr 24H · Manchester City0–42
W28 Dec 23H · Tottenham4–23
W16 Sep 23A · Manchester United3–12
L26 Apr 23A · Nottingham Forest1–30

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.