Brentford
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester City were slight favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 69). Absences weigh more on Manchester City. Brentford had 8.2 days of rest, Manchester City 8.1 and had to travel 257 km.
Away travel257 kmRest days8.2 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Brentford28%
Draw25%
Manchester City47%
Brentford28%
Draw27%
Manchester City46%
Brentford27%
Draw25%
Manchester City48%
Brentford22%
Draw24%
Manchester City54%
Brentford29%
Draw27%
Manchester City44%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)
No weather data yet
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 103
Team strength
Brentford
Manchester City
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
87
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
91
73
AttackIn forecast
92
73
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrentfordManchester City
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
1.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.90
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
100%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
8.50
ShotsContext
12.67
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
47%
On target shareContext
37%
6.75
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
75%
Box shareContext
69%
18%
ConversionContext
18%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.00
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
5.00
BlocksContext
3.00
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
64%
Save rateContext
73%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
320
PassesContext
502
249
Accurate passesContext
433
78%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.71
Team ratingContext
7.07
13.00
FoulsContext
8.50
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.17
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.94
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
100%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.10
ShotsContext
14.80
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
47%
On target shareContext
35%
8.63
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
80%
Box shareContext
67%
17%
ConversionContext
16%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.30
Shots allowedContext
9.60
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
5.20
BlocksContext
2.89
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
66%
Save rateContext
71%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
348
PassesContext
562
278
Accurate passesContext
497
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.11
11.90
FoulsContext
7.80
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brentford
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester City
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel257 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brentford |
Manchester City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 8.1Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 257 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 524 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.1 | 12.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brentford
Confirmed XI
1C. Kelleher(G)
2A. Hickey
22N. Collins
4S. van den Berg
20K. Ajer
33M. Kayode
24M. Damsgaard
6J. Henderson
18Y. Yarmoliuk
7K. Schade
9Thiago
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
24J. Gvardiol
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
16Rodri
26Savinho
47P. Foden
4T. Reijnders
52O. Bobb
9E. Haaland
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brentford
Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester City
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brentford+1.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Manchester City-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Brentford · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Manchester City · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Brentford | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Brentford wins1 draws5 Manchester City wins
Goals per game0.88 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets13% · 38%
- 14 Jan 2025Brentford2–2Manchester City
- 14 Sep 2024Manchester City2–1Brentford
- 20 Feb 2024Manchester City1–0Brentford
- 5 Feb 2024Brentford1–3Manchester City
- 28 May 2023Brentford1–0Manchester City
- 12 Nov 2022Manchester City1–2Brentford
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brentford | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 3.33 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Brentford | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 3.33 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brentford | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.83 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 4.16 | 3.16 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Brentford | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 8.50 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.20 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 103 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.21league 3.80
Red cards0.11league 0.13
Cards 5+41%league 42%
Fouls22.3league 22.2
Penalties0.29league 0.22
Home wins45%league 49%
Brentford12 with this referee
Record6-0-6
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds1
- W1 May 25A · Nottingham Forest2–05
- W15 Feb 25A · West Ham1–01
- L27 Apr 24A · Everton0–12
- L20 Feb 24A · Manchester City0–14
- W20 Jan 24H · Nottingham Forest3–21
Manchester City9 with this referee
Record8-0-1
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.3
Pens for · against3 · 2
Reds1
- L31 Aug 25A · Brighton1–22
- W2 Apr 25H · Leicester2–01
- W3 Apr 24H · Aston Villa4–11
- W20 Feb 24H · Brentford1–02
- W15 Apr 23H · Leicester3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brentford6 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Manchester City6 games · scored 14 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 17 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
6
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
46-60
6
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
