Brighton vs Bournemouth – 19 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 22 Mon, Jan 19 · 20:00 The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex

Brighton 12th · 29 pts · 21 played DLDWD

1–1Full time

Bournemouth 15th · 26 pts · 21 played DLDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brighton were slight favourites.

Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 69). Brighton had 12 days of rest, Bournemouth 12 and had to travel 128 km.

Away travel128 kmRest days12 · 12Matches / 14d1 · 1

Brighton50%

Draw25%

Bournemouth25%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.16

Brighton50%

Draw26%

Bournemouth24%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.08

Brighton51%

Draw25%

Bournemouth24%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.15

Brighton43%

Draw26%

Bournemouth31%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.30

Brighton49%

Draw26%

Bournemouth25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.09

Over 2.5 55% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)

No weather data yet

RefereePaul Tierney

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 114

Team strength

Brighton

Bournemouth

77 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

87 AttackIn forecast 83

85 DefenceIn forecast 82

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brighton

Bournemouth

1.48 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.62

1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.57

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

81% Scored inContext 81%

24% Clean sheetsContext 24%

13.19 ShotsContext 13.76

4.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.95

34% On target shareContext 36%

8.24 Shots in the boxContext 8.65

64% Box shareContext 59%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.14

12.71 Shots allowedContext 12.38

4.24 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

3.58 BlocksContext 3.71

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

69% Save rateContext 62%

52% PossessionIn forecast 51%

463 PassesContext 411

390 Accurate passesContext 329

84% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.79

12.29 FoulsContext 12.86

10.38 Fouls sufferedContext 10.57

2.62 Yellow cardsContext 2.43

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

1.68 xGVia Att/Def 1.85

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.87

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.30 ShotsContext 15.10

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

29% On target shareContext 38%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

68% Box shareContext 61%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.80

15.90 Shots allowedContext 14.80

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

5.22 BlocksContext 4.40

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

73% Save rateContext 58%

53% PossessionIn forecast 47%

480 PassesContext 379

408 Accurate passesContext 290

85% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.74

12.70 FoulsContext 13.80

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brighton

Rest12 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km652 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bournemouth

Rest12 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel128 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brighton	Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	12Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Jan	12Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	128 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	652 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4.8	4.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 34J. Veltman

30P. Groß 13J. Hinshelwood

22K. Mitoma 25D. Gómez 8B. Gruda

18D. Welbeck

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 23J. Hill 20Álex Jiménez

4L. Cook 8A. Scott

21A. Adli 22E. Kroupi 16M. Tavernier

9Evanilson

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brighton Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bournemouth Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brighton-0.9 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Bournemouth+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Brighton · Home 1.90points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 5-4-1
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 1.10

Bournemouth · Away 0.70points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 1-4-5
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 2.90

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Brighton	Bournemouth
Manchester City	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	L 1–3 A
Burnley	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 H
West Ham	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
Arsenal	L 1–2 A	L 2–3 H
Sunderland	D 0–0 H	L 2–3 A
Liverpool	L 0–2 A	L 2–4 A
Aston Villa	L 3–4 H	L 0–4 A
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 A	W 2–0 H
Brentford	W 2–1 H	L 1–4 A
Crystal Palace	D 0–0 A	D 3–3 A
Leeds	W 3–0 H	D 2–2 A
Manchester United	L 2–4 A	D 4–4 A
Newcastle	W 2–1 H	D 0–0 H
Wolves	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Chelsea	W 3–1 A	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H
Tottenham	D 2–2 H	W 3–2 HW 1–0 A
Everton	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 H
Fulham	D 1–1 H	W 3–1 H
Points	29 of 60 · 1.45 per game	23 of 60 · 1.15 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

5 Brighton wins0 draws2 Bournemouth wins

Goals per game1.57 – 1.14 Over 2.571% Both scored57% Clean sheets29% · 14%

13 Sep 2025Bournemouth2–1Brighton
25 Feb 2025Brighton2–1Bournemouth
23 Nov 2024Bournemouth1–2Brighton
28 Apr 2024Bournemouth3–0Brighton
24 Sep 2023Brighton3–1Bournemouth
4 Apr 2023Bournemouth0–2Brighton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brighton	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.48	1.62
Conceded per game	1.33	1.90
Match goals	2.81	3.52	2.89
Over 1.5	90%	76%
Over 2.5	52%	67%	55%
Over 3.5	24%	62%
Both teams scored	67%	67%	57%
Clean sheets	24%	24%
Failed to score	19%	19%
Games	21	21

	Brighton	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.70
Conceded per game	1.30	2.20
Match goals	2.70	3.90	2.89
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	55%
Over 3.5	20%	70%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	57%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brighton	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	5.58
Corners conceded	4.62	5.16
Match total	9.29	10.74	9.92
Over 8.5	57% 12/21	74% 14/19
Over 9.5	52% 11/21	63% 12/19
Over 10.5	43% 9/21	53% 10/19
Cards
Cards	2.62	2.48
Opponent cards	2.14	2.10
Match total	4.76	4.58	3.88
Over 3.5	76% 16/21	71% 15/21
Over 4.5	48% 10/21	43% 9/21

	Brighton	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	5.11
Corners conceded	5.50	5.89
Match total	9.10	11.00	9.92
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.70
Opponent cards	2.10	2.10
Match total	4.50	4.80	3.88
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Paul Tierney 114 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.84league 3.74

Red cards0.11league 0.11

Cards 5+41%league 38%

Fouls22.3league 21.4

Penalties0.18league 0.20

Home wins38%league 45%

Brighton4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L28 Apr 24A · Bournemouth0–32
W21 May 23H · Southampton3–12
D11 Mar 23A · Leeds2–21
W7 Aug 22A · Manchester United2–11

Bournemouth4 with this referee

Record1-0-3 Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.8 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W28 Apr 24H · Brighton3–02
L27 Feb 24H · Leicester0–14
L21 Oct 23H · Wolves1–23
L25 Feb 23H · Manchester City1–42

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.