Brighton vs Manchester United – 24 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 38 Sun, May 24 · 16:00 The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex

Brighton 7th · 53 pts · 37 played DWLWL

0–3Full time

Manchester United 3rd · 68 pts · 37 played WWWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brighton were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Brighton. Brighton had 7 days of rest, Manchester United 7.1 and had to travel 326 km.

Away travel326 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Brighton48%

Draw23%

Manchester United29%

Expected goals 1.92 – 1.46

Brighton40%

Draw27%

Manchester United33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Brighton48%

Draw23%

Manchester United29%

Expected goals 1.92 – 1.46

Brighton40%

Draw24%

Manchester United37%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.64

Brighton46%

Draw24%

Manchester United29%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.36

Over 2.5 66% Both score 66% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)

No weather data yet

RefereeSamuel Barrott

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 85

Team strength

Brighton

Manchester United

78 L90 StrengthIn forecast 82

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

87 AttackIn forecast 72

85 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brighton

Manchester United

1.41 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.78

1.16 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.35

1.53 xGVia Att/Def 1.72

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

78% Scored inContext 89%

27% Clean sheetsContext 19%

13.03 ShotsContext 15.81

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.65

36% On target shareContext 36%

8.65 Shots in the boxContext 10.56

67% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.68 Shots allowedContext 11.57

3.92 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.76

3.41 BlocksContext 3.83

2.81 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.65

72% Save rateContext 66%

54% PossessionIn forecast 52%

476 PassesContext 466

399 Accurate passesContext 386

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.99

11.95 FoulsContext 10.11

10.14 Fouls sufferedContext 10.89

2.32 Yellow cardsContext 1.68

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 37 and 37 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.71 xGVia Att/Def 1.69

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.11

80% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.70 ShotsContext 15.70

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

42% On target shareContext 37%

9.80 Shots in the boxContext 10.20

71% Box shareContext 61%

12% ConversionContext 12%

1.57 OffsidesContext 1.40

10.00 Shots allowedContext 13.20

3.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.11 BlocksContext 4.20

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

74% Save rateContext 71%

58% PossessionIn forecast 49%

493 PassesContext 460

412 Accurate passesContext 382

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.00 Team ratingContext 7.05

11.70 FoulsContext 11.40

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brighton

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km682 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Manchester United

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel326 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brighton	Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 17 May	7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	326 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	682 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	90.9	89.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 27M. Wieffer

20J. Milner 30P. Groß

29M. De Cuyper 13J. Hinshelwood 25D. Gómez

18D. Welbeck

Manchester United Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31S. Lammens(G)

23L. Shaw 6L. Martínez 5J. Maguire 3N. Mazraoui

37K. Mainoo 7Mason Mount

13P. Dorgu 8Bruno Fernandes 16A. Diallo

19B. Mbeumo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brighton Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester United Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brighton+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Manchester United+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Brighton · Home 1.83points per game · 18 home games

W-D-L: 9-6-3
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 0.94

Manchester United · Away 1.44points per game · 18 away games

W-D-L: 6-8-4
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.44

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Brighton	Manchester United
Leeds	L 0–1 AW 3–0 H	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Wolves	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 HW 4–1 A
Newcastle	L 1–3 AW 2–1 H	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H
Chelsea	W 3–0 HW 3–1 A	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H
Tottenham	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A
Burnley	W 2–0 AW 2–0 H	D 2–2 AW 3–2 H
Liverpool	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A	W 3–2 HW 2–1 A
Sunderland	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H
Arsenal	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	W 3–2 AL 0–1 H
Nottingham Forest	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A	W 3–2 HD 2–2 A
Brentford	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A
Aston Villa	L 0–1 AL 3–4 H	W 3–1 HL 1–2 A
Crystal Palace	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Everton	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A	W 1–0 AL 0–1 H
Fulham	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	W 3–2 HD 1–1 A
Bournemouth	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	D 2–2 AD 4–4 H
Manchester City	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 HL 0–3 A
West Ham	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H
Points	53 of 108 · 1.47 per game	65 of 108 · 1.81 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

7 Brighton wins0 draws3 Manchester United wins

Goals per game1.90 – 1.30 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%

11 Jan 2026Manchester United1–2Brighton
25 Oct 2025Manchester United4–2Brighton
19 Jan 2025Manchester United1–3Brighton
24 Aug 2024Brighton2–1Manchester United
19 May 2024Brighton0–2Manchester United
16 Sep 2023Manchester United1–3Brighton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brighton	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.41	1.78
Conceded per game	1.16	1.35
Match goals	2.57	3.14	3.38
Over 1.5	81%	84%
Over 2.5	49%	62%	66%
Over 3.5	19%	38%
Both teams scored	57%	73%	66%
Clean sheets	27%	19%
Failed to score	22%	11%
Games	37	37

	Brighton	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.80
Conceded per game	0.90	1.30
Match goals	2.50	3.10	3.38
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	66%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	80%	66%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brighton	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.75
Corners conceded	4.86	5.14
Match total	9.86	9.89	10.08
Over 8.5	62% 23/37	58% 21/36
Over 9.5	59% 22/37	56% 20/36
Over 10.5	46% 17/37	39% 14/36
Cards
Cards	2.32	1.76
Opponent cards	2.08	2.19
Match total	4.40	3.95	3.91
Over 3.5	65% 24/37	59% 22/37
Over 4.5	41% 15/37	43% 16/37

	Brighton	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	6.10
Corners conceded	5.20	4.80
Match total	10.50	10.90	10.08
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.70
Opponent cards	2.00	2.10
Match total	4.10	4.80	3.91
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Samuel Barrott 85 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 3.79

Red cards0.06league 0.12

Cards 5+31%league 38%

Fouls20.2league 21.6

Penalties0.24league 0.21

Home wins38%league 43%

Brighton5 with this referee

Record1-3-1 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.4 Pens for · against2 · 0

D16 Aug 25H · Fulham1–13
W9 Nov 24H · Manchester City2–13
D14 Sep 24H · Ipswich0–04
L10 Feb 24A · Tottenham1–23
D2 Jan 24A · West Ham0–00

Manchester United4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

D8 Nov 25A · Tottenham2–21
W30 Aug 25H · Burnley3–21
L4 Dec 24A · Arsenal0–23
W19 Oct 24H · Brentford2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.