Burnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Fulham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 56). Absences weigh more on Burnley. Burnley had 7.1 days of rest, Fulham 6 and had to travel 292 km.
Away travel292 kmRest days7.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 3
Burnley38%
Draw26%
Fulham36%
Burnley39%
Draw27%
Fulham34%
Burnley39%
Draw26%
Fulham35%
Burnley31%
Draw26%
Fulham44%
Burnley38%
Draw27%
Fulham35%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Burnley)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 196
Team strength
Burnley
Fulham
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
27
AttackIn forecast
66
25
DefenceIn forecast
68
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BurnleyFulham
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
2.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
67%
Scored inContext
80%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.27
ShotsContext
11.73
3.54
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.07
37%
On target shareContext
32%
4.87
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
57%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.21
16.07
Shots allowedContext
10.93
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.07
4.57
BlocksContext
3.33
3.87
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.92
69%
Save rateContext
69%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
365
PassesContext
455
284
Accurate passesContext
380
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.93
FoulsContext
12.00
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.53
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
2.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.20
ShotsContext
12.60
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
39%
On target shareContext
33%
4.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
55%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.56
14.60
Shots allowedContext
11.30
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.56
BlocksContext
3.50
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
66%
Save rateContext
64%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
395
PassesContext
466
314
Accurate passesContext
390
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.60
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.20
FoulsContext
10.50
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Burnley
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km273 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fulham
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel292 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Burnley |
Fulham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 6Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 292 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 273 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 9.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
3Q. Hartman
5M. Estève
18H. Ekdal
6A. Tuanzebe
16Florentino
24J. Cullen
8L. Ugochukwu
7J. Bruun Larsen
27A. Broja
9L. Foster
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
33A. Robinson
3C. Bassey
5J. Andersen
2K. Tete
17A. Iwobi
16S. Berge
19S. Chukwueze
32E. Smith Rowe
8H. Wilson
7R. Jiménez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Burnley
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fulham
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Burnley-0.9 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Fulham+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Burnley · Home
1.00points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 1.00
Fulham · Away
0.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-5
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Burnley | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Crystal Palace | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Brentford | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Chelsea | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Wolves | W 3–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Leeds | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Manchester City | L 1–5 A | L 4–5 H |
| Manchester United | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Sunderland | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Tottenham | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 9 of 36 · 0.75 per game | 16 of 36 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Burnley wins2 draws0 Fulham wins
Goals per game1.75 – 0.75
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 3 Feb 2024Burnley2–2Fulham
- 23 Dec 2023Fulham0–2Burnley
- 10 May 2021Fulham0–2Burnley
- 17 Feb 2021Burnley1–1Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Burnley | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.07 | 2.93 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 53% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 20% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Burnley | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Burnley | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.27 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.53 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 10.20 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 9/15 | 73% 11/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 8/15 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 6/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.27 | 1.53 | |
| Match total | 2.94 | 3.26 | 3.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 7/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 3/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Burnley | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 10.30 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 2.90 | 3.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 196 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 3.64
Red cards0.14league 0.12
Cards 5+34%league 39%
Fouls22.5league 22.0
Penalties0.27league 0.20
Home wins42%league 49%
Burnley8 with this referee
Record1-1-6
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.1
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- L14 Sep 25H · Liverpool0–12
- L16 Aug 25A · Tottenham0–30
- L6 Apr 24A · Everton0–12
- L11 Nov 23A · Arsenal1–31
- L10 Apr 22A · Norwich0–21
Fulham7 with this referee
Record3-1-3
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W20 Sep 25H · Brentford3–14
- L14 Apr 25A · Bournemouth0–12
- L2 Apr 24A · Nottingham Forest1–30
- W24 Feb 24A · Manchester United2–15
- L2 Sep 23A · Manchester City1–54
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Burnley15 games · scored 16 · conceded 30
1
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
8
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
10
76-90
Fulham15 games · scored 20 · conceded 24
4
0-15
4
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
9
46-60
5
61-75
4
6
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
8
31-45
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
8
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
4
0-15
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
