Burnley
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Burnley
19th · 12 pts · 20 played
LDDLL
2–2Full time
Manchester United
7th · 31 pts · 20 played
DLWDD
Burnley29.6%fair odds 3.37
Draw25.9%fair odds 3.86
Manchester United44.5%fair odds 2.25
Expected goals1.26 – 1.59total 2.85
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Manchester United
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Burnley ↓ · Manchester United → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Burnley goals, columns Manchester United goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.19
- 1–29.2%10.85
- 0–18.6%11.62
- 0–27.3%13.65
- 2–17.3%13.71
- 1–06.7%14.96
- 0–06.4%15.59
- 2–25.8%17.25
- 1–34.9%20.49
- 2–04.6%21.79
Winning margin
4.3%
Burnley by 3+
fair 23.50
8.5%
Burnley by 2
fair 11.73
16.9%
Burnley by 1
fair 5.93
25.9%
Draw
fair 3.86
21.5%
Manchester United by 1
fair 4.66
13.6%
Manchester United by 2
fair 7.35
9.4%
Manchester United by 3+
fair 10.61
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Burnley goals
28%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Manchester United goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 29.6% | 30.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.9% | -1.0 pp |
| Manchester United win | 44.5% | 43.2% | +1.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 50.4% | +3.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.6% | 54.8% | +2.8 pp |
| Expected goals Burnley | 1.26 | 1.20 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Manchester United | 1.59 | 1.49 | +0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Burnley win29.6%3.37
- Draw25.9%3.86
- Manchester United win44.5%2.25
- Double chance Burnley or draw55.5%1.80
- Double chance Burnley or Manchester United74.1%1.35
- Double chance Manchester United or draw70.4%1.42
- Draw no bet Burnley40.0%2.50
- Draw no bet Manchester United60.0%1.67
Goals
- Over 0.593.6%1.07
- Over 1.578.3%1.28
- Over 2.554.2%1.85
- Over 3.531.9%3.14
- Over 4.516.0%6.26
- Under 1.521.7%4.61
- Under 2.545.8%2.18
- Under 3.568.1%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes57.6%1.74
- No42.4%2.36
- Yes and over 2.545.4%2.20
- Burnley win and yes15.6%6.39
- Draw and yes19.5%5.14
- Manchester United win and yes22.5%4.45
Team goals
- Burnley over 0.571.6%1.40
- Burnley over 1.535.8%2.79
- Burnley over 2.513.3%7.50
- Manchester United over 0.579.6%1.26
- Manchester United over 1.547.2%2.12
- Manchester United over 2.521.4%4.68
- Burnley clean sheet20.4%4.90
- Manchester United clean sheet28.4%3.52
- Burnley win to nil14.0%7.15
- Manchester United win to nil22.0%4.54
Handicap
- Burnley −1.512.8%7.83
- Burnley −2.54.3%23.50
- Manchester United +1.587.2%1.15
- Manchester United +2.595.7%1.04
- Manchester United −1.523.0%4.34
- Burnley +1.577.0%1.30
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored207
Favourite won52.7%
Avg chance given to result40.1%
1X2 Brier0.600
Over 2.5 called right55.1%
BTTS called right54.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 30 | 38.2% | 46.7% |
| 40–50% | 79 | 44.9% | 45.6% |
| 50–60% | 53 | 54.7% | 54.7% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 64.0% | 63.0% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 73.4% | 68.8% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 177 of 207 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5992 | 0.5865 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.3% | 41.1% |
| Favourite won | 52.5% | 53.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 177 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 207 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.