Burnley vs Manchester United – 7 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 21 Wed, Jan 7 · 20:15 Turf Moor, Burnley

Burnley 19th · 12 pts · 20 played LDDLL

2–2Full time

Manchester United 7th · 31 pts · 20 played DLWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester United were slight favourites.

Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 52). Burnley had 4.2 days of rest, Manchester United 3.3 and had to travel 35 km.

Away travel35 kmRest days4.2 · 3.3Matches / 14d3 · 3

Burnley30%

Draw26%

Manchester United44%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.59

Burnley30%

Draw27%

Manchester United43%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.49

Burnley30%

Draw26%

Manchester United44%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.59

Burnley23%

Draw24%

Manchester United52%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.78

Burnley30%

Draw27%

Manchester United43%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.49

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Burnley)

No weather data yet

RefereeStuart Attwell

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 130

Team strength

Burnley

Manchester United

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

27 AttackIn forecast 72

25 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Burnley

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Burnley

Manchester United

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.95 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.79

1.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

65% Scored inContext 85%

15% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.00 ShotsContext 16.05

3.65 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.45

34% On target shareContext 34%

5.25 Shots in the boxContext 10.95

57% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 11%

1.81 OffsidesContext 1.88

15.65 Shots allowedContext 11.35

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

4.44 BlocksContext 3.28

3.74 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

66% Save rateContext 61%

42% PossessionIn forecast 53%

379 PassesContext 460

296 Accurate passesContext 376

78% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.94

10.10 FoulsContext 10.05

8.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.35

1.55 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.80

1.84 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

60% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.60 ShotsContext 16.80

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

32% On target shareContext 33%

6.20 Shots in the boxContext 12.00

57% Box shareContext 65%

8% ConversionContext 10%

1.38 OffsidesContext 2.43

13.60 Shots allowedContext 11.00

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

4.13 BlocksContext 3.67

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

58% Save rateContext 60%

47% PossessionIn forecast 56%

425 PassesContext 478

335 Accurate passesContext 395

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.62 Team ratingContext 6.96

10.60 FoulsContext 10.30

8.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Burnley

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km715 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Manchester United

Rest3.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel35 km115 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Burnley	Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Moderate · 23
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Jan	3.3Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	35 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	715 km	115 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	9.8	9.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Burnley Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1M. Dúbravka(G)

12B. Humphreys 5M. Estève 29J. Laurent

23Lucas Pires 16Florentino 8L. Ugochukwu 2K. Walker

28H. Mejbri 10M. Edwards

27A. Broja

Manchester United Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31S. Lammens(G)

23L. Shaw 6L. Martínez 26A. Heaven 2Diogo Dalot

18Casemiro 25M. Ugarte

13P. Dorgu 8Bruno Fernandes 10Matheus Cunha

30B. Šeško

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Burnley Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester United Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Burnley+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Manchester United+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Burnley · Home 0.80points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-6
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 1.30

Manchester United · Away 1.30points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-3
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 1.70

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Burnley	Manchester United
Brighton	L 0–2 A	W 4–2 H
Newcastle	L 1–3 HL 1–2 A	W 1–0 H
Everton	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 H
Bournemouth	D 1–1 A	D 4–4 H
Fulham	L 2–3 H	D 1–1 A
Crystal Palace	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 A
Brentford	L 1–3 A	L 1–3 A
Chelsea	L 0–2 H	W 2–1 H
West Ham	L 2–3 A	D 1–1 H
Arsenal	L 0–2 H	L 0–1 H
Wolves	W 3–2 A	D 1–1 HW 4–1 A
Leeds	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
Aston Villa	L 1–2 A	L 1–2 A
Manchester City	L 1–5 A	L 0–3 A
Nottingham Forest	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 A
Liverpool	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 A
Sunderland	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 H
Tottenham	L 0–3 A	D 2–2 A
Points	12 of 57 · 0.63 per game	28 of 57 · 1.47 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

0 Burnley wins2 draws5 Manchester United wins

Goals per game0.86 – 1.86 Over 2.543% Both scored71% Clean sheets0% · 29%

30 Aug 2025Manchester United3–2Burnley
27 Apr 2024Manchester United1–1Burnley
23 Sep 2023Burnley0–1Manchester United
8 Feb 2022Burnley1–1Manchester United
30 Dec 2021Manchester United3–1Burnley
18 Apr 2021Manchester United3–1Burnley

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Burnley	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.70
Conceded per game	1.95	1.50
Match goals	2.95	3.20	2.85
Over 1.5	85%	85%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	54%
Over 3.5	35%	35%
Both teams scored	55%	75%	58%
Clean sheets	15%	10%
Failed to score	35%	15%
Games	20	20

	Burnley	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.70
Conceded per game	2.00	1.40
Match goals	2.80	3.10	2.85
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	58%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Burnley	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	3.75	4.70
Corners conceded	6.00	4.90
Match total	9.75	9.60	9.89
Over 8.5	55% 11/20	60% 12/20
Over 9.5	50% 10/20	55% 11/20
Over 10.5	40% 8/20	30% 6/20
Cards
Cards	1.65	1.45
Opponent cards	1.25	2.30
Match total	2.90	3.75	3.85
Over 3.5	40% 8/20	55% 11/20
Over 4.5	15% 3/20	40% 8/20

	Burnley	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	5.50
Corners conceded	5.50	4.70
Match total	10.40	10.20	9.89
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.60
Opponent cards	1.30	2.10
Match total	3.00	3.70	3.85
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Stuart Attwell 130 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.98league 3.70

Red cards0.13league 0.11

Cards 5+45%league 38%

Fouls21.0league 21.4

Penalties0.20league 0.20

Home wins50%league 45%

Burnley4 with this referee

Record1-0-3 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 3 Reds2

L6 Dec 25A · Newcastle1–23
L30 Dec 23A · Aston Villa2–33
L7 Oct 23H · Chelsea1–42
W21 Apr 22H · Southampton2–02

Manchester United12 with this referee

Record7-3-2 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against2 · 2

W4 Oct 25H · Sunderland2–01
W14 Sep 24A · Southampton3–04
W26 Aug 23H · Nottingham Forest3–24
W25 May 23H · Chelsea4–11
L2 Apr 23A · Newcastle0–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.