Burnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards West Ham. Burnley had 4.8 days of rest, West Ham 6.9 and had to travel 292 km.
Away travel292 kmRest days4.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Burnley39%
Draw26%
West Ham35%
Burnley43%
Draw27%
West Ham30%
Burnley39%
Draw26%
West Ham34%
Burnley32%
Draw26%
West Ham42%
Burnley38%
Draw27%
West Ham35%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Burnley)
No weather data yet
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 113
Team strength
Burnley
West Ham
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
27
AttackIn forecast
68
25
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWest Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BurnleyWest Ham
1.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.21
1.96
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
2.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
67%
Scored inContext
67%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
4%
8.67
ShotsContext
10.46
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.05
33%
On target shareContext
34%
5.17
Shots in the boxContext
7.24
58%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.95
OffsidesContext
2.05
16.96
Shots allowedContext
15.00
6.04
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.42
4.86
BlocksContext
4.45
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.58
67%
Save rateContext
66%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
378
PassesContext
374
296
Accurate passesContext
297
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.73
9.96
FoulsContext
11.13
8.96
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
70%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.80
3.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
29%
On target shareContext
31%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.13
63%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.80
Shots allowedContext
13.30
6.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
5.25
BlocksContext
3.11
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
67%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
430
PassesContext
429
347
Accurate passesContext
346
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.90
FoulsContext
12.90
8.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Burnley
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km269 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
West Ham
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel292 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Burnley |
West Ham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 2 Feb | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 292 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 269 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
23Lucas Pires
5M. Estève
12B. Humphreys
2K. Walker
11J. Anthony
8L. Ugochukwu
16Florentino
28H. Mejbri
10M. Edwards
19Z. Flemming
West Ham
Confirmed XI
1M. Hermansen(G)
12E. Diouf
4A. Disasi
15K. Mavropanos
29A. Wan-Bissaka
7C. Summerville
18Mateus Fernandes
28T. Souček
20J. Bowen
9C. Wilson
11V. Castellanos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Burnley
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
West Ham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Burnley-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- West Ham+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Burnley · Home
0.83points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.42
West Ham · Away
0.83points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-6
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Burnley | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | W 3–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Liverpool | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Manchester United | D 2–2 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Brighton | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Newcastle | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Everton | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bournemouth | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Fulham | L 2–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Brentford | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Chelsea | L 0–2 H | L 2–3 AL 1–5 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Wolves | W 3–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Leeds | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Manchester City | L 1–5 A | L 0–3 A |
| Nottingham Forest | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Points | 15 of 69 · 0.65 per game | 17 of 69 · 0.74 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Burnley wins3 draws4 West Ham wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.57
Over 2.557%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets14% · 29%
- 8 Nov 2025West Ham3–2Burnley
- 10 Mar 2024West Ham2–2Burnley
- 25 Nov 2023Burnley1–2West Ham
- 17 Apr 2022West Ham1–1Burnley
- 12 Dec 2021Burnley0–0West Ham
- 3 May 2021Burnley1–2West Ham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Burnley | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.04 | 1.21 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.96 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.21 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 96% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 71% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 63% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 4% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Burnley | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Burnley | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 5.35 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.79 | 6.39 | |
| Match total | 9.17 | 11.74 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 12/24 | 83% 19/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 11/24 | 74% 17/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 8/24 | 70% 16/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.13 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 2.88 | 3.79 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 9/24 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 4/24 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Burnley | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.90 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 4.80 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 113 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.19league 3.71
Red cards0.12league 0.12
Cards 5+42%league 38%
Fouls22.3league 21.3
Penalties0.28league 0.20
Home wins44%league 45%
Burnley5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D30 Mar 24A · Chelsea2–24
- D10 Mar 24A · West Ham2–24
- L2 Sep 23H · Tottenham2–54
- W27 Dec 22H · Birmingham3–01
- W25 Apr 21A · Wolves4–02
West Ham7 with this referee
Record2-1-4
Cards · opp.1.6 · 0.9
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L30 Nov 25H · Liverpool0–23
- L26 Apr 25A · Brighton2–31
- L15 Feb 25H · Brentford0–11
- D10 Mar 24H · Burnley2–22
- L30 Dec 22H · Brentford0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Burnley24 games · scored 25 · conceded 47
2
8
0-15
5
3
16-30
3
12
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
6
61-75
9
12
76-90
West Ham24 games · scored 29 · conceded 48
8
7
0-15
2
2
16-30
7
9
31-45
1
9
46-60
2
11
61-75
9
10
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
2
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
6
3
0-15
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
46-60
6
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
