Cagliari
Attack−2%
Defense risk−9%
Our take
It looks too close to call.
Bologna are the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cagliari. Cagliari have 4.9 days of rest, Bologna 6.9 and have to travel 613 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel613 kmRest days4.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cagliari36%
Draw27%
Bologna37%
Cagliari35%
Draw27%
Bologna37%
Cagliari36%
Draw27%
Bologna36%
Cagliari29%
Draw27%
Bologna44%
Cagliari37%
Draw26%
Bologna37%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cagliari)
21°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 3%
- Wind 25 km/h
- Humidity 45%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Cagliari and Bologna. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Cagliari
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Cagliari
−0.51
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.31xG against1.82
-
Insight
Cagliari
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Defence
-
Insight
Cagliari
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Cagliari
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Cagliari
−0.51
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.31xG against1.82
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Cagliari
Bologna
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
31
AttackIn forecast
35
31
DefenceIn forecast
48
72
Form indexContext
32
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack+15%
Defense risk−16%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
CagliariBologna
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
71%
Scored inContext
57%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.57
ShotsContext
12.57
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
38%
On target shareContext
28%
6.57
Shots in the boxContext
8.43
60%
Box shareContext
65%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.83
19.57
Shots allowedContext
13.71
5.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
4.86
BlocksContext
4.14
4.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
81%
Save rateContext
67%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
408
PassesContext
438
345
Accurate passesContext
380
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.68
10.43
FoulsContext
12.71
8.57
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.29
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.40
ShotsContext
11.90
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
35%
On target shareContext
31%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
61%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.50
17.10
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
4.10
BlocksContext
3.80
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
78%
Save rateContext
60%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
429
PassesContext
437
365
Accurate passesContext
378
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.00
FoulsContext
12.20
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cagliari
WWWDL
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,412 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 72 · 10 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · +3.8 vs expected
Bologna
DLDWL
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel613 km1,450 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 32 · 5 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cagliari |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9Serie A 2026-2027, 19 Oct | 6.9Serie A 2026-2027, 17 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 613 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,412 km | 1,450 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.3 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cagliari
Last XI · not confirmed
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
15J. Rodríguez
26Y. Mina
2Zé Pedro
4Alessandro Romano
6H. Winks
8M. Adopo
70D. Maldini
18M. Nzola
31Paul Mendy
Bologna
Last XI · not confirmed
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
3A. Theate
16N. Casale
36M. Darmian
33Juan Miranda
4T. Pobega
19L. Ferguson
20N. Zortea
28N. Cambiaghi
10F. Bernardeschi
91R. Piccoli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cagliari
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −2.2% of weighted minutes
- DEF Riyad Idrissi Rotation 6.47 Def −2.2%
Bologna
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Cagliari-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Bologna+0.2 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Cagliari · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Bologna · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Cagliari | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lecce | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Cagliari wins1 draws5 Bologna wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets13% · 50%
- 3 May 2026Bologna0–0Cagliari
- 19 Oct 2025Cagliari0–2Bologna
- 2 Mar 2025Bologna2–1Cagliari
- 29 Oct 2024Cagliari0–2Bologna
- 14 Jan 2024Cagliari2–1Bologna
- 2 Sep 2023Bologna2–1Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cagliari | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 1.86 | 2.29 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 43% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 43% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 57% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Cagliari | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.80 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cagliari | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.29 | 6.17 | |
| Match total | 10.29 | 10.50 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.29 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.14 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 2.43 | 4.14 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 14% 1/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cagliari | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.11 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 3.80 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Cagliari7 games · scored 6 · conceded 7
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Bologna7 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
