Como vs Sassuolo – 24 Oct 2026

Serie A Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como

Como 5th · 14 pts · 7 played WWLDW

VS— Compare

Sassuolo 13th · 8 pts · 7 played DWLDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Como are clear favourites.

Como are the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 33). Como come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Sassuolo are without I. Koné. Como have 2.8 days of rest, Sassuolo 7.8 and have to travel 173 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel173 kmRest days2.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d4 · 2

Como66%

Draw19%

Sassuolo15%

Expected goals 2.37 – 1.05

Como65%

Draw21%

Sassuolo14%

Expected goals 2.07 – 0.86

Como65%

Draw19%

Sassuolo15%

Expected goals 2.33 – 1.06

Como58%

Draw22%

Sassuolo20%

Expected goals 2.11 – 1.17

Como71%

Draw17%

Sassuolo13%

Expected goals 2.63 – 1.06

Over 2.5 66% Both score 59% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Como)

17°CMainly clear

Precipitation 5%
Wind 16 km/h
Humidity 28%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Sassuolo 7 Scoring in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Como

Sassuolo

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

72 AttackIn forecast 41

67 DefenceIn forecast 32

50 Form indexContext 32

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Como

Attack+16%

Defense risk−6%

Sassuolo

Attack−12%

Defense risk+27%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Como

Sassuolo

1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.71

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.55

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

71% Scored inContext 100%

14% Clean sheetsContext 0%

21.43 ShotsContext 15.86

6.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.43

32% On target shareContext 41%

13.43 Shots in the boxContext 9.57

62% Box shareContext 60%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.67 OffsidesContext 2.17

14.71 Shots allowedContext 15.71

3.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.57

2.86 BlocksContext 4.43

2.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.57

69% Save rateContext 70%

61% PossessionIn forecast 48%

588 PassesContext 446

527 Accurate passesContext 387

90% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.80

8.29 FoulsContext 9.71

9.57 Fouls sufferedContext 11.43

1.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.29

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.57

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

+0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 0%

19.00 ShotsContext 14.30

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

34% On target shareContext 41%

12.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

63% Box shareContext 62%

12% ConversionContext 11%

3.20 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.60 Shots allowedContext 15.20

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70

2.70 BlocksContext 3.80

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

69% Save rateContext 67%

60% PossessionIn forecast 51%

571 PassesContext 458

513 Accurate passesContext 397

90% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.79

9.70 FoulsContext 9.80

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Como WLDLW

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel0 km2,082 km in 14d

Schedule load48%High

Form 50 · 7 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected

W18 OctA · Fiorentina3–11.8 xPts
L14 OctA · Feyenoord2–31.2 xPts
D11 OctH · AS Roma0–01.4 xPts
L20 SepA · Frosinone0–22.1 xPts
W14 SepH · Parma2–12.4 xPts

Sassuolo DWLDL

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel173 km810 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 32 · 5 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

L16 OctA · Frosinone2–41.3 xPts
D11 OctH · AC Milan1–11.2 xPts
L18 SepA · Monza1–21.6 xPts
W13 SepH · Juventus3–21.1 xPts
D6 SepA · Bologna2–20.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Como	Sassuolo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	High · 48	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	Yes	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Oct	7.8Serie A 2026-2027, 16 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	173 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,082 km	810 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 4 / 4	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.3	3.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Como Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Fiorentina (A) 3–1, 18 Oct

1J. Butez(G)

3Álex Valle 2M. Kempf 99T. Chalobah 28I. Smolčić

7L. da Cunha 6Luis Milla

8M. Caqueret 10N. Paz 30M. Liberali

9A. Douvikas

Sassuolo Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Frosinone (A) 2–4, 16 Oct

49A. Murić(G)

3J. Doig 15D. Ćaleta-Car 26C. Odenthal 20I. Van der Brempt

50D. Bakola 18N. Matić

45A. Laurienté 42K. Thorstvedt 10D. Berardi

94S. Esposito

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Como No reported absences

Sassuolo Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −9.1% · Defence line −6.3% of weighted minutes

MID I. Koné Starter 6.97 Att −9.1% Def −5.3%
DEF Fali Candé Rotation 6.45 Def −1.0%

3 without recent minutes (no impact): E. Pieragnolo, D. Boloca, Y. Paz

Total impact vs full squads

Como+0.9 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Sassuolo-0.5 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Como · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.50

Sassuolo · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Como	Sassuolo
Frosinone	L 0–2 A	L 2–4 A
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Como wins0 draws1 Sassuolo wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

17 Apr 2026Sassuolo2–1Como
28 Nov 2025Como2–0Sassuolo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Como	Sassuolo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.71	1.71
Conceded per game	1.00	2.00
Match goals	2.71	3.71	3.42
Over 1.5	86%	100%
Over 2.5	57%	86%	66%
Over 3.5	29%	43%
Both teams scored	71%	100%	59%
Clean sheets	14%	0%
Failed to score	29%	0%
Games	7	7

	Como	Sassuolo	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.50
Conceded per game	1.20	2.00
Match goals	3.40	3.50	3.42
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	80%	66%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	80%	90%	59%
Clean sheets	10%	0%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Como	Sassuolo	League
Corners
Corners won	7.29	4.29
Corners conceded	4.57	6.14
Match total	11.86	10.43	9.38
Over 8.5	86% 6/7	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	57% 4/7	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.29	1.29
Opponent cards	2.14	2.00
Match total	3.43	3.29	3.43
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	29% 2/7

	Como	Sassuolo	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	3.70
Corners conceded	4.40	5.90
Match total	10.10	9.60	9.38
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.40
Opponent cards	2.70	2.40
Match total	4.30	3.80	3.43
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.