Inter
Attack+11%
Defense risk−5%
Our take
Inter are clear favourites.
Inter are the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Inter. Inter have 3.7 days of rest, Fiorentina 6.9 and have to travel 248 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel248 kmRest days3.7 · 6.9Matches / 14d3 · 1
Inter82%
Draw11%
Fiorentina7%
Inter74%
Draw17%
Fiorentina9%
Inter82%
Draw11%
Fiorentina7%
Inter75%
Draw14%
Fiorentina10%
Inter82%
Draw11%
Fiorentina7%
Over 2.5 79%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 3–0
EloLambda forecast, updated 4 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
13°COvercast
- Precipitation 3%
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 59%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Inter and Fiorentina. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Inter
+1.37
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.73xG against1.36
-
Trend
Inter
78%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Inter
2.8
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Fiorentina
2.4
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Fiorentina
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Fiorentina
5
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Attack
-
Insight
Inter
+1.37
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.73xG against1.36
-
Trend
Inter
2.8
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Inter
78%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Fiorentina
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Fiorentina
5
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Defence
Team strength
InterFiorentina
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
91
AttackIn forecast
42
73
DefenceIn forecast
34
76
Form indexContext
20
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFiorentina
Attack−23%
Defense risk+85%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
InterFiorentina
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.43
2.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
100%
Scored inContext
71%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
21.57
ShotsContext
16.43
7.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.43
34%
On target shareContext
33%
15.14
Shots in the boxContext
10.14
70%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.83
OffsidesContext
1.83
11.00
Shots allowedContext
12.14
4.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.43
2.71
BlocksContext
2.00
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
68%
Save rateContext
55%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
616
PassesContext
390
556
Accurate passesContext
328
90%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.20
Team ratingContext
6.54
8.14
FoulsContext
11.00
9.43
Fouls sufferedContext
12.43
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
2.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
100%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
21.00
ShotsContext
14.90
7.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
34%
On target shareContext
32%
14.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
70%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.88
OffsidesContext
1.89
11.40
Shots allowedContext
13.90
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
2.80
BlocksContext
2.40
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
64%
Save rateContext
70%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
586
PassesContext
388
529
Accurate passesContext
324
90%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.68
8.70
FoulsContext
11.10
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
WDWLW
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km401 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 76 · 10 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected
Fiorentina
LWDLL
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel248 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 4 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
Fiorentina |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Oct | 6.9Serie A 2026-2027, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 248 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 401 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.3 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Last XI · not confirmed
1Josep Martínez(G)
95A. Bastoni
25M. Akanji
31Y. Bisseck
32F. Dimarco
8P. Sučić
7P. Zieliński
23N. Barella
11L. de Lima
94F. Esposito
9M. Thuram
Fiorentina
Last XI · not confirmed
43David de Gea(G)
33Viery
5M. Pongračić
3R. Drăgușin
20Álex Jiménez
44N. Fagioli
27C. Ndour
25A. Njie
28Pote
30Franco Mastantuono
32Mateo Pellegrino
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
No reported absences
Fiorentina
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
1 without recent minutes (no impact): R. Sottil
Total impact vs full squads
- Inter+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fiorentina+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
3.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 3.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Fiorentina · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Inter | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | D 2–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Napoli | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
6 Inter wins2 draws2 Fiorentina wins
Goals per game1.90 – 1.10
Over 2.560%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets30% · 20%
- 22 Mar 2026Fiorentina1–1Inter
- 29 Oct 2025Inter3–0Fiorentina
- 10 Feb 2025Inter2–1Fiorentina
- 6 Feb 2025Fiorentina3–0Inter
- 28 Jan 2024Fiorentina0–1Inter
- 3 Sep 2023Inter4–0Fiorentina
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 2.43 | |
| Match goals | 4.29 | 3.57 | 4.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 86% | 79% |
| Over 3.5 | 71% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 71% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Inter | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.80 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.60 | 2.90 | 4.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 60% | 79% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.86 | 5.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.43 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 9.29 | 9.15 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 3.57 | 4.14 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Inter | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.40 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Inter7 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
Fiorentina7 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 28 · conceded 18
3
4
0-15
3
5
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
9
2
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
