Genoa vs Venezia – 25 Oct 2026

Serie A Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 25 · 14:00 Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova

Genoa 17th · 4 pts · 7 played LDLWL

VS— Compare

Venezia 20th · 3 pts · 7 played LLLLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Genoa are slight favourites.

Genoa are the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 15). Genoa have 7.8 days of rest, Venezia 8 and have to travel 290 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel290 kmRest days7.8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Genoa57%

Draw24%

Venezia19%

Expected goals 1.85 – 0.99

Genoa57%

Draw24%

Venezia19%

Expected goals 1.83 – 0.98

Genoa57%

Draw24%

Venezia19%

Expected goals 1.85 – 0.99

Genoa49%

Draw26%

Venezia25%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.11

Genoa59%

Draw22%

Venezia19%

Expected goals 2.03 – 1.08

Over 2.5 54% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 1 hour ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Genova)

16°COvercast

Precipitation 10%
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 51%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Genoa

Venezia

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 15

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 15

23 AttackIn forecast 21

44 DefenceIn forecast 14

24 Form indexContext 19

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genoa

Attack+48%

Defense risk−23%

Venezia

Attack+1%

Defense risk−23%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Genoa

Venezia

0.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.86

1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.29

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.38

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.57

57% Scored inContext 57%

0% Clean sheetsContext 14%

11.14 ShotsContext 14.14

2.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.43

26% On target shareContext 31%

7.57 Shots in the boxContext 9.29

68% Box shareContext 69%

6% ConversionContext 6%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.83

15.00 Shots allowedContext 17.29

4.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.14

6.17 BlocksContext 4.14

2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50

61% Save rateContext 69%

45% PossessionIn forecast 54%

380 PassesContext 470

306 Accurate passesContext 400

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.56 Team ratingContext 6.75

9.43 FoulsContext 9.86

11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 10.29

2.86 Yellow cardsContext 2.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

0.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.08

-0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.33

50% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.60 ShotsContext 13.00

2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

25% On target shareContext 32%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

68% Box shareContext 69%

6% ConversionContext 8%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.38

13.40 Shots allowedContext 17.10

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50

5.38 BlocksContext 4.50

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.56

60% Save rateContext 65%

48% PossessionIn forecast 51%

395 PassesContext 438

322 Accurate passesContext 367

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.62 Team ratingContext 6.76

9.40 FoulsContext 10.90

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genoa LDLWL

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km804 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

L17 OctA · AS Roma0–20.5 xPts
W10 OctH · Fiorentina2–11.3 xPts
L20 SepA · Parma1–21.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Frosinone1–11.6 xPts
L4 SepH · Como1–41.0 xPts

Venezia LLLLW

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel290 km419 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 19 · 3 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected

W17 OctH · Napoli1–00.6 xPts
L12 OctA · Atalanta1–30.5 xPts
L19 SepH · Lazio0–20.6 xPts
L11 SepH · Fiorentina2–41.2 xPts
L6 SepA · Frosinone2–30.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genoa	Venezia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Serie A 2026-2027, 17 Oct	8Serie A 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	290 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	804 km	419 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.2	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Genoa Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs AS Roma (A) 0–2, 17 Oct

1J. Bijlow(G)

22J. Vásquez 5L. Østigård 27A. Marcandalli

31D. Puczka 32M. Frendrup 71S. Wiafe 77M. Ellertsson

92S. El Shaarawy 10J. Messias

18M. Osmajić

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Venezia Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs Napoli (H) 1–0, 17 Oct

1F. Stanković(G)

15Juan Jesus 2M. Moreno 25R. Halhal

5R. Haps 26T. Bašić 19S. Sohm 71Kike Pérez 18A. Hainaut

45A. Adams 10J. Yeboah

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genoa

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes 1 without recent minutes (no impact): L. Venturino

Venezia

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes 1 without recent minutes (no impact): M. Šverko

Total impact vs full squads

Genoa+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Venezia+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Genoa · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Venezia · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Genoa	Venezia
Fiorentina	W 2–1 H	L 2–4 H
Frosinone	D 1–1 H	L 2–3 A
Lazio	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 H
Napoli	L 0–2 H	W 1–0 H
Points	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game	3 of 12 · 0.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Genoa wins2 draws1 Venezia wins

Goals per game0.75 – 0.75 Over 2.50% Both scored25% Clean sheets50% · 50%

17 Feb 2025Genoa2–0Venezia
21 Sep 2024Venezia2–0Genoa
20 Feb 2022Venezia1–1Genoa
31 Oct 2021Genoa0–0Venezia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Genoa	Venezia	Forecast
Scored per game	0.71	0.86
Conceded per game	1.86	2.29
Match goals	2.57	3.14	2.84
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	43%	43%	54%
Over 3.5	14%	43%
Both teams scored	57%	43%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	14%
Failed to score	43%	43%
Games	7	7

	Genoa	Venezia	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	0.86
Conceded per game	1.60	2.29
Match goals	2.20	3.14	2.84
Over 1.5	70%	86%
Over 2.5	40%	43%	54%
Over 3.5	10%	43%
Both teams scored	50%	43%	54%
Clean sheets	10%	14%
Failed to score	50%	43%
Games	10	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genoa	Venezia	League
Corners
Corners won	4.43	4.33
Corners conceded	4.57	4.17
Match total	9.00	8.50	9.38
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	33% 2/6
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	17% 1/6
Over 10.5	14% 1/7	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.86
Opponent cards	1.86	1.14
Match total	4.86	4.00	3.43
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	29% 2/7

	Genoa	Venezia	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	4.56
Corners conceded	4.10	4.89
Match total	8.50	9.45	9.38
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.30
Opponent cards	1.80	1.60
Match total	4.10	3.90	3.43
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.