Napoli
Attack−21%
Defense risk+26%
Our take
It looks too close to call.
AS Roma are the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 63). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Napoli. Napoli are without A. Buongiorno. Napoli have 3.9 days of rest, AS Roma 3.9 and have to travel 187 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel187 kmRest days3.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d4 · 4
Napoli37%
Draw26%
AS Roma36%
Napoli36%
Draw27%
AS Roma37%
Napoli38%
Draw27%
AS Roma35%
Napoli30%
Draw26%
AS Roma44%
Napoli38%
Draw26%
AS Roma37%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Napoli)
18°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 58%
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 85%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Napoli and AS Roma. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
AS Roma
+1.08
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.19xG against1.11
-
Insight
AS Roma
5
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Napoli
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
AS Roma
2.2
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Napoli
+1.02
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.81xG against0.79
-
Insight
Napoli
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Attack
-
Insight
AS Roma
+1.08
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.19xG against1.11
-
Trend
AS Roma
2.2
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Napoli
+1.02
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.81xG against0.79
Defence
-
Insight
AS Roma
5
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
AS Roma
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Napoli
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Napoli
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
NapoliAS Roma
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
74
61
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
61
AttackIn forecast
72
70
DefenceIn forecast
75
44
Form indexContext
68
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack−14%
Defense risk+12%
Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
NapoliAS Roma
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.29
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.43
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
2.10
0.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
86%
Scored inContext
86%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
71%
16.71
ShotsContext
18.14
5.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
33%
On target shareContext
33%
11.86
Shots in the boxContext
12.86
70%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.57
15.57
Shots allowedContext
10.29
3.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.14
4.40
BlocksContext
2.60
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
74%
Save rateContext
82%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
510
PassesContext
526
443
Accurate passesContext
447
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.14
8.57
FoulsContext
11.86
8.86
Fouls sufferedContext
8.57
0.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
2.19
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
-0.61
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
14.70
ShotsContext
16.80
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
34%
On target shareContext
35%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
11.90
67%
Box shareContext
70%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.90
OffsidesContext
3.00
16.20
Shots allowedContext
10.70
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
5.13
BlocksContext
2.57
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
69%
Save rateContext
76%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
516
PassesContext
542
450
Accurate passesContext
466
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.06
9.00
FoulsContext
12.70
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Napoli
WDWLL
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km3,506 km in 14d
Schedule load45%High
Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
AS Roma
WDDLW
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel187 km1,030 km in 14d
Schedule load35%Moderate
Form 68 · 8 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Napoli |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 45 | Moderate · 35 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Oct | 3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 187 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,506 km | 1,030 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 4 / 4 | 2 / 4 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Napoli
Last XI · not confirmed
1A. Meret(G)
5B. Badiashile
13A. Rrahmani
31S. Beukema
37L. Spinazzola
68S. Lobotka
6B. Gilmour
22G. Di Lorenzo
8S. McTominay
23Giovane
20L. Lucca
AS Roma
Last XI · not confirmed
95P. Gollini(G)
3K. Koulierakis
5O. Ndicka
26L. Balerdi
2D. Rensch
61N. Pisilli
15M. de Roon
77Emanuele Lulli
86Rodrigo Mora
18M. Soulé
9S. Castro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Napoli
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −11.8% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Buongiorno Starter 6.65 Def −11.8%
AS Roma
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
1 without recent minutes (no impact): Muhammed Bah
Total impact vs full squads
- Napoli-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- AS Roma+0.8 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Napoli · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
AS Roma · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Napoli | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Inter | L 2–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Como | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Genoa | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game | 8 of 12 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Napoli wins5 draws1 AS Roma wins
Goals per game1.10 – 0.90
Over 2.530%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 15 Feb 2026Napoli2–2AS Roma
- 30 Nov 2025AS Roma0–1Napoli
- 2 Feb 2025AS Roma1–1Napoli
- 24 Nov 2024Napoli1–0AS Roma
- 28 Apr 2024Napoli2–2AS Roma
- 23 Dec 2023AS Roma2–0Napoli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Napoli | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 2.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.71 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 57% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 29% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 71% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Napoli | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.00 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Napoli | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 5.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 7.71 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 5/5 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.86 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.29 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 2.15 | 3.71 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Napoli | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.26 | 8.40 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 4.00 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Napoli7 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
AS Roma7 games · scored 16 · conceded 3
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 22 · conceded 8
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
