Lazio vs Parma – 24 Oct 2026

Serie A Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 24 · 19:45 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

Lazio 2nd · 19 pts · 7 played WDWWW

VS— Compare

Parma 19th · 4 pts · 7 played DLWLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lazio are clear favourites.

Lazio are the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 31). Lazio have 6 days of rest, Parma 5 and have to travel 368 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel368 kmRest days6 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 1

Lazio62%

Draw23%

Parma15%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.81

Lazio63%

Draw22%

Parma15%

Expected goals 2.02 – 0.88

Lazio62%

Draw23%

Parma15%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.80

Lazio55%

Draw26%

Parma20%

Expected goals 1.66 – 0.90

Lazio64%

Draw21%

Parma15%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.90

Over 2.5 50% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

14°CClear

Precipitation 50%
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 86%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Lazio

Parma

62 L90 StrengthIn forecast 31

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

53 AttackIn forecast 20

63 DefenceIn forecast 33

87 Form indexContext 23

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lazio

Attack+8%

Defense risk−25%

Parma

Attack−15%

Defense risk+7%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Lazio

Parma

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67

0.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 0.51

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.79

+0.67 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

100% Scored inContext 50%

57% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.71 ShotsContext 8.17

4.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.67

34% On target shareContext 33%

6.86 Shots in the boxContext 5.20

56% Box shareContext 63%

16% ConversionContext 8%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.80

12.43 Shots allowedContext 18.33

4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67

3.43 BlocksContext 4.67

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.17

85% Save rateContext 74%

48% PossessionIn forecast 42%

446 PassesContext 384

381 Accurate passesContext 316

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.62

12.00 FoulsContext 10.33

11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 15.33

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 6 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 0.57

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.85

+0.45 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

80% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.90 ShotsContext 8.20

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.67

39% On target shareContext 29%

6.40 Shots in the boxContext 5.50

56% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 9%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.22

12.20 Shots allowedContext 16.50

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

3.00 BlocksContext 4.50

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

78% Save rateContext 74%

48% PossessionIn forecast 41%

450 PassesContext 363

388 Accurate passesContext 298

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.69

12.00 FoulsContext 10.30

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lazio WDWWW

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,051 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 87 · 13 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected

W18 OctA · Juventus3–00.7 xPts
W11 OctH · Monza3–12.1 xPts
W19 SepA · Venezia2–02.2 xPts
D12 SepH · AC Milan2–21.5 xPts
W7 SepA · Udinese2–11.3 xPts

Parma DLWLL

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel368 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

L19 OctH · Torino0–31.3 xPts
L10 OctA · Inter0–30.3 xPts
W20 SepH · Genoa2–11.6 xPts
L14 SepA · Como1–20.4 xPts
D6 SepH · Monza1–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lazio	Parma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Serie A 2026-2027, 18 Oct	5Serie A 2026-2027, 19 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	368 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,051 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	3.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lazio Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Juventus (A) 3–0, 18 Oct

35C. Mandas(G)

17Nuno Tavares 25Oliver Provstgaard 37J. Šutalo 15R. Floriani Mussolini

24K. Taylor 21R. Belahyane 16D. Frattesi

10M. Zaccagni 14T. Noslin 11G. Isaksen

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Parma Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Torino (H) 0–3, 19 Oct

40E. Corvi(G)

15E. Delprato 37Mariano Troilo 34Diego Carlos

14E. Valeri 16L. Keita 10Adrián Bernabé 27Sascha Britschgi

19E. Touré 80G. Fabbian

9D. Romero

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lazio Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −2.1% of weighted minutes

DEF Patric Rotation 6.68 Def −1.8%
DEF A. Furlanetto Depth 6.80 Def −0.3%

Parma No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Lazio-0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Parma+0.1 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Lazio · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Parma · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Lazio	Parma
Juventus	W 3–0 A	L 0–2 A
Monza	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 H
Genoa	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
Points	9 of 9 · 3.00 per game	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Lazio wins2 draws1 Parma wins

Goals per game1.25 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

4 Apr 2026Lazio1–1Parma
13 Dec 2025Parma0–1Lazio
28 Apr 2025Lazio2–2Parma
1 Dec 2024Parma3–1Lazio

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lazio	Parma	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.57
Conceded per game	0.57	1.86
Match goals	2.57	2.43	2.67
Over 1.5	71%	86%
Over 2.5	57%	57%	50%
Over 3.5	29%	0%
Both teams scored	43%	43%	47%
Clean sheets	57%	0%
Failed to score	0%	57%
Games	7	7

	Lazio	Parma	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	0.70
Conceded per game	1.00	1.70
Match goals	2.60	2.40	2.67
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	47%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lazio	Parma	League
Corners
Corners won	5.14	3.29
Corners conceded	5.00	5.14
Match total	10.14	8.43	9.38
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.86	1.57
Opponent cards	3.29	1.71
Match total	5.15	3.28	3.43
Over 3.5	86% 6/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	71% 5/7	43% 3/7

	Lazio	Parma	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	2.90
Corners conceded	4.40	5.80
Match total	9.30	8.70	9.38
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.70
Opponent cards	2.80	1.60
Match total	5.00	3.30	3.43
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.