Atalanta vs Frosinone – 25 Oct 2026

Serie A Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 25 · 14:00 Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Atalanta 11th · 9 pts · 7 played LLLWL

VS— Compare

Frosinone 6th · 13 pts · 7 played WDWLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atalanta are slight favourites.

Atalanta are the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Frosinone. Atalanta have 6.9 days of rest, Frosinone 8.8 and have to travel 539 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel539 kmRest days6.9 · 8.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Atalanta56%

Draw23%

Frosinone22%

Expected goals 1.98 – 1.18

Atalanta62%

Draw22%

Frosinone16%

Expected goals 1.98 – 0.91

Atalanta56%

Draw23%

Frosinone21%

Expected goals 1.99 – 1.16

Atalanta47%

Draw24%

Frosinone28%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.32

Atalanta57%

Draw21%

Frosinone22%

Expected goals 2.21 – 1.33

Over 2.5 61% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bergamo)

13°CMainly clear

Precipitation 2%
Wind 10 km/h
Humidity 59%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Atalanta

Frosinone

59 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

48 AttackIn forecast 41

45 DefenceIn forecast 25

21 Form indexContext 69

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atalanta

Attack+21%

Defense risk−8%

Frosinone

Attack0%

Defense risk+2%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Atalanta

Frosinone

1.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86

1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

1.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.20

+0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.45

86% Scored inContext 71%

14% Clean sheetsContext 29%

13.14 ShotsContext 17.29

4.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.29

35% On target shareContext 31%

8.83 Shots in the boxContext 10.86

60% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 3.00

18.00 Shots allowedContext 19.43

5.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.71

5.17 BlocksContext 5.29

4.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.29

76% Save rateContext 75%

46% PossessionIn forecast 42%

475 PassesContext 305

420 Accurate passesContext 227

88% Pass accuracyContext 74%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.29 FoulsContext 14.86

8.43 Fouls sufferedContext 11.86

0.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.71

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.20

+0.34 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

80% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.10 ShotsContext 17.50

4.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

33% On target shareContext 31%

8.67 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

63% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.20 OffsidesContext 3.00

16.60 Shots allowedContext 17.40

5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

4.33 BlocksContext 4.60

4.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

78% Save rateContext 77%

47% PossessionIn forecast 43%

472 PassesContext 315

414 Accurate passesContext 241

88% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.86

11.80 FoulsContext 12.70

8.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atalanta LLLWL

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km90 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 21 · 3 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -3.6 vs expected

L18 OctA · AC Milan2–30.7 xPts
W12 OctH · Venezia3–12.4 xPts
L20 SepA · Juventus0–20.8 xPts
L12 SepH · Cagliari1–22.0 xPts
L5 SepA · AS Roma1–20.7 xPts

Frosinone WDWLW

Rest8.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel539 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 69 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +4.1 vs expected

W16 OctH · Sassuolo4–21.5 xPts
L10 OctA · Napoli0–30.7 xPts
W20 SepH · Como2–00.7 xPts
D12 SepA · Genoa1–11.1 xPts
W6 SepH · Venezia3–21.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atalanta	Frosinone
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Serie A 2026-2027, 18 Oct	8.8Serie A 2026-2027, 16 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	539 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	90 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	4.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atalanta Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs AC Milan (A) 2–3, 18 Oct

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

47L. Bernasconi 23S. Kolašinac 31T. Kristensen 16R. Bellanova

8M. Pašalić 13Éderson 10L. Samardžić

11J. Rowe 90N. Krstović 17C. De Ketelaere

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Frosinone Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sassuolo (H) 4–2, 16 Oct

22L. Palmisani(G)

79G. Bracaglia 30I. Monterisi 2G. Cittadini 20A. Oyono

14Giacomo Calò 73P. Masini

17G. Kvernadze 10R. Schmid 7F. Ghedjemis

9A. Raimondo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atalanta Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −1.3% · Defence line −6.2% of weighted minutes

DEF I. Hien Rotation 6.75 Def −5.1%
MID K. Sulemana Rotation 6.62 Att −1.3% Def −1.0%

Frosinone No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Atalanta-0.5 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Frosinone+0.4 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Atalanta · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-1
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.00

Frosinone · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Atalanta	Frosinone
Venezia	W 3–1 H	W 3–2 H
Juventus	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 H
Sassuolo	W 2–1 H	W 4–2 H
Points	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Atalanta wins0 draws1 Frosinone wins

Goals per game3.00 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

15 Jan 2024Atalanta5–0Frosinone
26 Aug 2023Frosinone2–1Atalanta

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atalanta	Frosinone	Forecast
Scored per game	1.43	1.86
Conceded per game	1.57	1.29
Match goals	3.00	3.14	3.16
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	71%	57%	61%
Over 3.5	29%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	43%	60%
Clean sheets	14%	29%
Failed to score	14%	29%
Games	7	7

	Atalanta	Frosinone	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.86
Conceded per game	1.50	1.29
Match goals	2.90	3.14	3.16
Over 1.5	80%	86%
Over 2.5	60%	57%	61%
Over 3.5	30%	29%
Both teams scored	70%	43%	60%
Clean sheets	10%	29%
Failed to score	20%	29%
Games	10	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atalanta	Frosinone	League
Corners
Corners won	3.43	5.57
Corners conceded	5.00	6.86
Match total	8.43	12.43	9.38
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	86% 6/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	71% 5/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.71
Opponent cards	0.57	2.43
Match total	1.57	4.14	3.43
Over 3.5	0% 0/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	0% 0/7	57% 4/7

	Atalanta	Frosinone	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	6.20
Corners conceded	4.50	5.60
Match total	7.50	11.80	9.38
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.40
Opponent cards	0.80	2.00
Match total	2.10	3.40	3.43
Over 3.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.