Celtic vs VfB Stuttgart – 19 Feb 2026

UEFA Europa League Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 19 · 20:00 Celtic Park, Glasgow

Celtic

1–4Full time

VfB Stuttgart

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Celtic. Celtic had 21 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 5.1 and had to travel 1,202 km.

Away travel1,202 kmRest days21 · 5.1Matches / 14d0 · 2

Celtic35%

Draw24%

VfB Stuttgart41%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.73

Celtic31%

Draw27%

VfB Stuttgart42%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.46

Celtic36%

Draw24%

VfB Stuttgart40%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.71

Celtic28%

Draw23%

VfB Stuttgart49%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.94

Celtic35%

Draw25%

VfB Stuttgart40%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.59

Over 2.5 65% Both score 66% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Glasgow)

No weather data yet

Referee · BelgiumEric Lambrechts

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 51

Team strength

Celtic

VfB Stuttgart

49 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

50 Current StrengthIn forecast 68

74 AttackIn forecast 70

50 DefenceIn forecast 58

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celtic

Attack—

Defense risk—

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celtic

VfB Stuttgart

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

2.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.96

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

-0.46 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

90% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.40 ShotsContext 15.00

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

42% On target shareContext 40%

10.89 Shots in the boxContext 9.80

75% Box shareContext 66%

15% ConversionContext 13%

1.25 OffsidesContext 2.67

12.10 Shots allowedContext 12.10

5.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

3.67 BlocksContext 3.50

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

69% Save rateContext 69%

58% PossessionIn forecast 57%

512 PassesContext 486

439 Accurate passesContext 406

86% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.96

11.90 FoulsContext 9.40

7.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celtic

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

VfB Stuttgart

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,202 km1,067 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celtic	VfB Stuttgart
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	21UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan	5.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,202 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	1,067 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	1 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celtic Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1K. Schmeichel(G)

63K. Tierney 5L. Scales 6A. Trusty 22J. Araujo

28Paulo Bernardo 42C. McGregor 8E. Nygren

23S. Tounekti 11T. Čvančara 38D. Maeda

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

VfB Stuttgart Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

33A. Nübel(G)

3R. Hendriks 24J. Chabot 29Finn Jeltsch 4J. Vagnoman

6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor

18J. Leweling 26D. Undav 11B. El Khannouss

9E. Demirović

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celtic Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

VfB Stuttgart Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Celtic-0.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
VfB Stuttgart+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Celtic · Home No home games yet this season.

VfB Stuttgart · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Celtic	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.33
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	65%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	66%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Celtic	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	1.63	1.90
Conceded per game	1.88	1.10
Match goals	3.50	3.00	3.33
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	75%	60%	65%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	75%	60%	66%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	25%	20%
Games	8	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celtic	VfB Stuttgart	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.75
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.75
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Celtic	VfB Stuttgart	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	4.90
Corners conceded	4.50	3.50
Match total	10.70	8.40	8.75
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.00
Opponent cards	1.30	1.50
Match total	3.50	3.50	2.75
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Eric Lambrechts Belgium · 51 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 2.75

Red cards0.12league 0.00

Cards 5+41%league 0%

Fouls22.7league 20.3

Penalties0.35league 0.00

Home wins47%league 0%

Celtic

No previous matches with this referee.

VfB Stuttgart1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L27 Nov 24A · FK Crvena Zvezda1–51

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.