Chelsea
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Liverpool were slight favourites.
Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 81). Absences weigh more on Chelsea. Chelsea had 7.1 days of rest, Liverpool 7.1 and had to travel 286 km.
Away travel286 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Chelsea31%
Draw25%
Liverpool45%
Chelsea31%
Draw27%
Liverpool42%
Chelsea31%
Draw25%
Liverpool43%
Chelsea24%
Draw23%
Liverpool53%
Chelsea30%
Draw26%
Liverpool43%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Taylor
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 187
Team strength
Chelsea
Liverpool
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
91
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
84
77
AttackIn forecast
85
74
DefenceIn forecast
84
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLiverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ChelseaLiverpool
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
83%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
13.00
ShotsContext
15.17
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
33%
On target shareContext
31%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
69%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.20
10.67
Shots allowedContext
9.83
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
2.67
BlocksContext
3.60
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.80
68%
Save rateContext
56%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
538
PassesContext
538
470
Accurate passesContext
460
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.97
10.50
FoulsContext
9.50
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.20
ShotsContext
15.90
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
37%
On target shareContext
29%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
11.10
65%
Box shareContext
69%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.11
11.20
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.00
BlocksContext
3.00
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
72%
Save rateContext
65%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
516
PassesContext
542
448
Accurate passesContext
468
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.99
10.50
FoulsContext
9.30
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Chelsea
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Liverpool
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel286 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Chelsea |
Liverpool |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 524 km | 573 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.8 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Chelsea
Confirmed XI
1Robert Sánchez(G)
3Marc Cucurella
5B. Badiashile
34J. Acheampong
24R. James
25M. Caicedo
27M. Gusto
49A. Garnacho
8E. Fernández
7Pedro Neto
20João Pedro
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
25G. Mamardashvili(G)
6M. Kerkez
4V. van Dijk
5I. Konaté
12C. Bradley
10A. Mac Allister
38R. Gravenberch
18C. Gakpo
8D. Szoboszlai
11Mohamed Salah
9A. Isak
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Chelsea
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Liverpool
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Chelsea-0.9 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Liverpool+1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Chelsea · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Liverpool · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Chelsea | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 Chelsea wins5 draws3 Liverpool wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.30
Over 2.540%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets30% · 30%
- 4 May 2025Chelsea3–1Liverpool
- 20 Oct 2024Liverpool2–1Chelsea
- 31 Jan 2024Liverpool4–1Chelsea
- 13 Aug 2023Chelsea1–1Liverpool
- 4 Apr 2023Chelsea0–0Liverpool
- 21 Jan 2023Liverpool0–0Chelsea
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Chelsea | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 3.17 | 3.17 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Chelsea | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 3.17 | 3.17 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Chelsea | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 11.33 | 10.50 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 6/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 6/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.83 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 5.33 | 4.34 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Chelsea | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 10.23 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Taylor 187 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.68league 3.77
Red cards0.16league 0.14
Cards 5+34%league 42%
Fouls21.1league 22.1
Penalties0.28league 0.20
Home wins34%league 47%
Chelsea19 with this referee
Record9-8-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.1
Pens for · against6 · 3
Reds1
- W25 May 25A · Nottingham Forest1–02
- W20 Apr 25A · Fulham2–13
- W8 Dec 24A · Tottenham4–33
- W14 Sep 24A · Bournemouth1–08
- L18 Aug 24H · Manchester City0–21
Liverpool27 with this referee
Record13-12-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3
Pens for · against5 · 0
Reds1
- W15 Aug 25H · Bournemouth4–21
- D11 May 25H · Arsenal2–21
- W23 Feb 25A · Manchester City2–00
- W29 Dec 24A · West Ham5–00
- D27 Oct 24A · Arsenal2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Chelsea6 games · scored 11 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Liverpool6 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
4
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
8
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
