Crystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arsenal were slight favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 67). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace had 7 days of rest, Arsenal 5.8 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Crystal Palace27%
Draw27%
Arsenal46%
Crystal Palace17%
Draw23%
Arsenal60%
Crystal Palace27%
Draw27%
Arsenal46%
Crystal Palace21%
Draw25%
Arsenal54%
Crystal Palace27%
Draw28%
Arsenal45%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeFarai Hallam
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 40
Team strength
Crystal Palace
Arsenal
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
94
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
94
64
AttackIn forecast
86
54
DefenceIn forecast
95
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Crystal PalaceArsenal
1.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.86
1.32
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.74
-0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
68%
Scored inContext
92%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
51%
11.73
ShotsContext
14.46
3.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.84
32%
On target shareContext
34%
8.74
Shots in the boxContext
10.57
73%
Box shareContext
73%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.26
OffsidesContext
2.35
11.57
Shots allowedContext
8.16
4.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.81
3.21
BlocksContext
3.18
3.15
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.14
69%
Save rateContext
75%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
394
PassesContext
470
308
Accurate passesContext
395
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.04
10.51
FoulsContext
10.24
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.08
2.03
Yellow cardsContext
1.35
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
70%
11.40
ShotsContext
12.70
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
39%
On target shareContext
28%
8.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
72%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.90
Shots allowedContext
10.40
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.40
BlocksContext
3.40
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
65%
Save rateContext
78%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
348
PassesContext
453
270
Accurate passesContext
386
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.94
10.10
FoulsContext
9.90
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Crystal Palace
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km549 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Arsenal
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Crystal Palace |
Arsenal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 17 May | 5.8Premier League 2025-2026, 18 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 549 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 90 | 89.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
1D. Henderson(G)
34C. Riad
8J. Lerma
17N. Clyne
59Rio Cardines
18Daichi Kamada
19W. Hughes
2D. Muñoz
7I. Sarr
55J. Devenny
22J. Strand Larsen
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
13Kepa(G)
33R. Calafiori
5P. Hincapié
3Cristhian Mosquera
36Martín Zubimendi
49M. Lewis-Skelly
16C. Nørgaard
11Gabriel Martinelli
56M. Dowman
20C. Madueke
9G. de Jesus
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Crystal Palace
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arsenal
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Crystal Palace+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arsenal+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Crystal Palace · Home
1.17points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-9-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.17
Arsenal · Away
1.94points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 10-5-3
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 0.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Crystal Palace | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Everton | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Bournemouth | L 0–3 AD 3–3 H | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Liverpool | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| West Ham | D 0–0 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Newcastle | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Leeds | D 0–0 HL 1–4 A | W 4–0 AW 5–0 H |
| Tottenham | W 3–1 AL 0–1 H | W 4–1 AW 4–1 H |
| Manchester United | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 2–3 HW 1–0 A |
| Wolves | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Burnley | L 2–3 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Brighton | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Chelsea | L 1–3 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Sunderland | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | W 3–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Aston Villa | D 0–0 HW 3–0 A | W 4–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Fulham | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 45 of 108 · 1.25 per game | 79 of 108 · 2.19 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
1 Crystal Palace wins2 draws7 Arsenal wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.50
Over 2.570%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets10% · 40%
- 26 Oct 2025Arsenal1–0Crystal Palace
- 23 Apr 2025Arsenal2–2Crystal Palace
- 21 Dec 2024Crystal Palace1–5Arsenal
- 20 Jan 2024Arsenal5–0Crystal Palace
- 21 Aug 2023Crystal Palace0–1Arsenal
- 19 Mar 2023Arsenal4–1Crystal Palace
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Crystal Palace | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.08 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.32 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.41 | 2.57 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 51% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 46% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 51% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 8% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Crystal Palace | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.30 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Crystal Palace | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 5.74 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.27 | 3.51 | |
| Match total | 9.49 | 9.25 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 21/37 | 51% 18/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 49% 18/37 | 46% 16/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 14/37 | 43% 15/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.08 | 1.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 1.97 | |
| Match total | 3.94 | 3.32 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 24/37 | 49% 18/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 49% 18/37 | 22% 8/37 | |
| Crystal Palace | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.10 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.40 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 8.50 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.30 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Farai Hallam 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.53league 3.79
Red cards0.03league 0.12
Cards 5+30%league 38%
Fouls22.3league 21.6
Penalties0.13league 0.21
Home wins33%league 43%
Crystal Palace1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L11 Feb 26H · Burnley2–32
ArsenalNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Crystal Palace37 games · scored 40 · conceded 49
3
4
0-15
5
16-30
12
20
31-45
2
7
46-60
8
6
61-75
10
12
76-90
Arsenal37 games · scored 69 · conceded 26
8
2
0-15
6
2
16-30
15
6
31-45
14
3
46-60
10
5
61-75
16
8
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
8
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 11 · conceded 5
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
