Crystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Crystal Palace
15th · 4 pts · 5 played
LLWLD
3–1Full time
Nottingham Forest
13th · 5 pts · 5 played
LDDWL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Nottingham Forest were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 65). Absences weigh more on Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace were without D. Henderson and A. Khalaili. Crystal Palace had 21 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 21.9 and had to travel 175 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel175 kmRest days21 · 21.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Crystal Palace38%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest37%
Crystal Palace39%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest35%
Crystal Palace40%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest35%
Crystal Palace31%
Draw24%
Nottingham Forest45%
Crystal Palace38%
Draw24%
Nottingham Forest37%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
15°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 48%
RefereePeter Bankes
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 125
Team strength
Crystal PalaceNottingham Forest
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
73
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
64
AttackIn forecast
68
54
DefenceIn forecast
74
60
Form indexContext
46
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Crystal PalaceNottingham Forest
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.65
60%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.60
ShotsContext
16.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
34%
On target shareContext
21%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
65%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
5%
3.67
OffsidesContext
2.75
16.80
Shots allowedContext
10.40
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
5.00
BlocksContext
3.20
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
61%
Save rateContext
73%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
412
PassesContext
376
339
Accurate passesContext
298
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.60
FoulsContext
15.00
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.00
ShotsContext
13.60
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
34%
On target shareContext
28%
7.88
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
66%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.22
15.70
Shots allowedContext
15.30
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
4.00
BlocksContext
5.20
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
63%
Save rateContext
71%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
387
PassesContext
385
311
Accurate passesContext
309
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.86
9.60
FoulsContext
12.90
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Crystal Palace
LWLWD
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 60 · 7 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +0.0 vs expected
Nottingham Forest
LDDWL
Rest21.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel175 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 46 · 5 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Crystal Palace |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Premier League 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 21.9Premier League 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 175 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
44W. Benítez(G)
6J. Canvot
26Chris Richards
8J. Lerma
3T. Mitchell
23Q. Timber
20A. Wharton
25A. Khalaili
10Yeremy Pino
18Daichi Kamada
22J. Strand Larsen
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
5Murillo
2O. Diomande
34T. Aina
3N. Williams
24J. McAtee
21X. Schlager
27D. Muñoz
14D. Ndoye
10M. Gibbs-White
19L. Delap
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Crystal Palace
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −23.9% · Defence line −25.5% of weighted minutes
- DEF D. Henderson Starter 6.81 Def −12.8%
- ATT A. Khalaili Starter 6.82 Att −18.3%
- DEF A. Disasi Starter 6.65 Def −7.7%
- ATT J. Mateta Rotation 6.74 Att −5.6%
- DEF T. Tomiyasu Rotation 6.36 Def −2.7%
- DEF C. Riad Rotation 6.55 Def −2.3%
Nottingham Forest
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −1.8% of weighted minutes
- DEF N. Savona Rotation 6.74 Def −1.8%
Total impact vs full squads
- Crystal Palace-1.9 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Nottingham Forest+2.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Crystal Palace · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 3.50
Nottingham Forest · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Crystal Palace wins6 draws2 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game0.63 – 0.88
Over 2.50%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 38%
- 1 Feb 2026Nottingham Forest1–1Crystal Palace
- 24 Aug 2025Crystal Palace1–1Nottingham Forest
- 5 May 2025Crystal Palace1–1Nottingham Forest
- 21 Oct 2024Nottingham Forest1–0Crystal Palace
- 30 Mar 2024Nottingham Forest1–1Crystal Palace
- 7 Oct 2023Crystal Palace0–0Nottingham Forest
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 1.80 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.60 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.00 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/4 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 4.40 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.40 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.50 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Peter Bankes 125 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.04league 3.88
Red cards0.12league 0.14
Cards 5+43%league 43%
Fouls21.5league 23.1
Penalties0.14league 0.16
Home wins50%league 38%
Crystal Palace5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Nov 25H · Brentford2–00
- W4 Nov 23A · Burnley2–05
- D26 Aug 23A · Brentford1–10
- L15 Mar 23A · Brighton0–12
- L15 Jan 23A · Chelsea0–15
Nottingham Forest11 with this referee
Record7-1-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L6 Feb 26A · Leeds1–31
- L5 Oct 25A · Newcastle0–24
- W17 Aug 25H · Brentford3–11
- W21 Apr 25A · Tottenham2–14
- W6 Jan 25A · Wolves3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Crystal Palace5 games · scored 6 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Nottingham Forest5 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
7
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
