La Liga Gameweek 14 Sun, Nov 29 · 16:00 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
Real Madrid 3rd · 21 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Alaves 7th · 11 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel284 kmRest days4.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Real Madrid—%
Draw—%
Alaves—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Madrid)

Forecast from 14 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Real Madrid and Alaves. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Real MadridAlaves
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
89 Current StrengthIn forecast 48
89 AttackIn forecast 48
85 DefenceIn forecast 55
91 Form indexContext 14
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Alaves

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real MadridAlaves
2.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.11
2.41 xGVia Att/Def 1.24
1.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22
+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.20
89% Scored inContext 78%
22% Clean sheetsContext 33%
17.56 ShotsContext 12.78
7.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.38
41% On target shareContext 37%
12.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.88
69% Box shareContext 62%
15% ConversionContext 11%
2.13 OffsidesContext 3.88
12.78 Shots allowedContext 12.33
4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
3.44 BlocksContext 4.50
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
73% Save rateContext 74%
53% PossessionIn forecast 42%
528 PassesContext 340
476 Accurate passesContext 270
90% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.17 Team ratingContext 6.84
8.44 FoulsContext 13.67
14.11 Fouls sufferedContext 13.33
2.11 Yellow cardsContext 1.67
0.22 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
2.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.28
1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23
+0.38 Goals minus xGContext +0.12
90% Scored inContext 80%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
16.90 ShotsContext 13.40
7.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
43% On target shareContext 40%
12.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.11
71% Box shareContext 61%
16% ConversionContext 10%
2.00 OffsidesContext 3.78
14.20 Shots allowedContext 12.60
5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60
3.80 BlocksContext 4.22
3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40
75% Save rateContext 74%
50% PossessionIn forecast 43%
501 PassesContext 341
446 Accurate passesContext 271
89% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.13 Team ratingContext 6.84
8.90 FoulsContext 13.60
13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Madrid
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts
Alaves
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel284 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 14 · 1 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -6.0 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Celta Vigo1–21.3 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Atletico Madrid1–21.2 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Athletic Club0–01.1 xPts
  • L15 SepH · Valencia0–11.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Racing Santander1–21.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Real Madrid Alaves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 24 Nov7La Liga 2026-2027, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km284 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 2 / 41 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler
25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick
10K. Mbappé
Alaves Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Celta Vigo (A) 1–2, 18 Oct
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach 2N. Valentini 16V. Koski 17Jonny 14F. Tenaglia
10Carles Aleñá 8Antonio Blanco 19Pablo Ibáñez
15L. Boyé 11Toni Martínez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Real Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Alaves Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Real Madrid · Home 3.00points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
5-0-0
Scored
3.40
Conceded
0.60
Alaves · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-2-2
Scored
0.75
Conceded
1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentReal MadridAlaves
Villarreal W 1–0 H W 1–0 H
Atletico Madrid L 1–2 A L 1–2 H
Rayo Vallecano W 4–1 H D 1–1 A
Points6 of 9 · 2.00 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

9 Real Madrid wins0 draws1 Alaves wins
Goals per game2.60 – 0.80 Over 2.580% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 0%
  • 21 Apr 2026Real Madrid2–1Alaves
  • 14 Dec 2025Alaves1–2Real Madrid
  • 13 Apr 2025Alaves0–1Real Madrid
  • 24 Sep 2024Real Madrid3–2Alaves
  • 14 May 2024Real Madrid5–0Alaves
  • 21 Dec 2023Alaves0–1Real Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Real MadridAlavesForecast
Scored per game 2.561.44
Conceded per game 1.001.11
Match goals 3.562.56
Over 1.5 78%67%
Over 2.5 78%56%
Over 3.5 56%11%
Both teams scored 67%56%
Clean sheets 22%33%
Failed to score 11%22%
Games99
Real MadridAlavesForecast
Scored per game 2.701.40
Conceded per game 1.201.20
Match goals 3.902.60
Over 1.5 80%70%
Over 2.5 80%60%
Over 3.5 60%10%
Both teams scored 70%60%
Clean sheets 20%30%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Real MadridAlavesLeague
Corners
Corners won6.254.29
Corners conceded4.255.14
Match total10.509.439.91
Over 8.563% 5/843% 3/7
Over 9.563% 5/843% 3/7
Over 10.563% 5/829% 2/7
Cards
Cards2.331.78
Opponent cards2.672.33
Match total5.004.114.73
Over 3.578% 7/956% 5/9
Over 4.567% 6/933% 3/9
Real MadridAlavesLeague
Corners
Corners won6.305.00
Corners conceded5.005.13
Match total11.3010.139.91
Over 8.570% 7/1050% 4/8
Over 9.570% 7/1050% 4/8
Over 10.570% 7/1038% 3/8
Cards
Cards2.201.90
Opponent cards2.502.40
Match total4.704.304.73
Over 3.580% 8/1060% 6/10
Over 4.550% 5/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Real Madrid9 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
2 0-15
6 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
7 3 76-90
Alaves9 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
0-15
2 16-30
3 2 31-45
1 4 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 2 76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 0-15
8 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 1 61-75
9 4 76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1 0-15
2 16-30
3 2 31-45
1 4 46-60
2 3 61-75
5 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Valencia Osasuna Nov 2916:00 Malaga Athletic Club Nov 2916:00 Celta Vigo Villarreal Nov 2916:00 Levante Racing Santander Nov 2916:00 Espanyol Getafe Nov 2916:00 Real Madrid Alaves Nov 2916:00 Real Betis Rayo Vallecano Nov 2916:00 Deportivo La Coruna Barcelona Nov 2916:00 Real Sociedad Sevilla Nov 2916:00 Elche Atletico Madrid Nov 2916:00