La Liga Gameweek 14 Sun, Nov 29 · 16:00 Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián
Real Sociedad 5th · 16 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Sevilla 6th · 14 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel741 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Real Sociedad—%
Draw—%
Sevilla—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)

Forecast from 14 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Real Sociedad and Sevilla. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Real SociedadSevilla
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
58 Current StrengthIn forecast 50
62 AttackIn forecast 48
48 DefenceIn forecast 57
81 Form indexContext 67
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Sociedad

Attack—
Defense risk—

Sevilla

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real SociedadSevilla
1.89 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.56
1.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.78
1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.05
1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47
+0.53 Goals minus xGContext +0.51
67% Scored inContext 100%
11% Clean sheetsContext 22%
14.11 ShotsContext 11.78
5.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33
39% On target shareContext 37%
8.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.44
56% Box shareContext 61%
13% ConversionContext 13%
2.14 OffsidesContext 2.14
16.56 Shots allowedContext 12.67
6.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.63
4.00 BlocksContext 3.29
4.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38
73% Save rateContext 60%
49% PossessionIn forecast 41%
467 PassesContext 344
399 Accurate passesContext 267
85% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.89 Team ratingContext 6.74
12.11 FoulsContext 14.67
9.78 Fouls sufferedContext 12.89
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.22 Red cardsContext 0.22
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70
1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.03
1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48
+0.62 Goals minus xGContext +0.37
80% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 20%
13.80 ShotsContext 11.50
5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10
38% On target shareContext 36%
7.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.10
55% Box shareContext 59%
14% ConversionContext 12%
1.75 OffsidesContext 2.13
15.80 Shots allowedContext 12.60
5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33
3.90 BlocksContext 3.00
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
70% Save rateContext 60%
50% PossessionIn forecast 42%
481 PassesContext 353
410 Accurate passesContext 278
85% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.82 Team ratingContext 6.72
12.40 FoulsContext 15.20
10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.80
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Sociedad
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,141 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Form 81 · 10 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Malaga5–21.3 xPts
  • D15 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.9 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Deportivo La Coruna3–21.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Valencia3–21.2 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Bournemouth1–21.0 xPts
Sevilla
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel741 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 67 · 7 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.1 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
  • D12 OctA · Levante3–31.2 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Barcelona1–30.5 xPts
  • W16 SepA · Deportivo La Coruna1–01.2 xPts
  • W11 SepH · Valencia1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Real Sociedad Sevilla
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 13Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 26 Nov7La Liga 2026-2027, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km741 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,141 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 2 / 51 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Sociedad Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Malaga (A) 5–2, 18 Oct
1Álex Remiro(G)
3Aihen Muñoz 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 22Héctor Fort
7Barrenetxea 18Carlos Soler 4Jon Gorrotxategi 14T. Kubo
9O. Óskarsson 10Mikel Oyarzabal
Sevilla Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Real Madrid (A) 1–4, 18 Oct
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
17G. Suazo 4Kike Salas 5A. López Gallo 2Juan Iglesias
24Y. Fofana 6L. Agoumé
20Félix Correia 10Peque Fernández 11R. Vargas
9R. Ure

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Real Sociedad Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Sevilla Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Real Sociedad · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.50
Sevilla · Away 1.60points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
2-2-1
Scored
1.80
Conceded
1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentReal SociedadSevilla
Deportivo La Coruna W 3–2 H W 1–0 A
Valencia W 3–2 A W 1–0 H
Atletico Madrid L 0–3 H L 1–3 H
Espanyol W 2–1 H D 1–1 A
Real Madrid L 1–4 A L 1–4 A
Points9 of 15 · 1.80 per game7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

5 Real Sociedad wins2 draws3 Sevilla wins
Goals per game1.20 – 0.90 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets30% · 40%
  • 4 May 2026Sevilla1–0Real Sociedad
  • 24 Oct 2025Real Sociedad2–1Sevilla
  • 9 Mar 2025Real Sociedad0–1Sevilla
  • 3 Nov 2024Sevilla0–2Real Sociedad
  • 2 Mar 2024Sevilla3–2Real Sociedad
  • 26 Nov 2023Real Sociedad2–1Sevilla

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Real SociedadSevillaForecast
Scored per game 1.891.56
Conceded per game 1.891.78
Match goals 3.783.33
Over 1.5 78%78%
Over 2.5 78%67%
Over 3.5 56%56%
Both teams scored 67%78%
Clean sheets 11%22%
Failed to score 33%0%
Games99
Real SociedadSevillaForecast
Scored per game 1.901.40
Conceded per game 1.901.70
Match goals 3.803.10
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 80%60%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 80%70%
Clean sheets 10%20%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Real SociedadSevillaLeague
Corners
Corners won7.003.00
Corners conceded4.893.56
Match total11.896.569.91
Over 8.5100% 9/922% 2/9
Over 9.578% 7/922% 2/9
Over 10.567% 6/911% 1/9
Cards
Cards2.333.33
Opponent cards2.562.11
Match total4.895.444.73
Over 3.578% 7/978% 7/9
Over 4.578% 7/956% 5/9
Real SociedadSevillaLeague
Corners
Corners won7.003.00
Corners conceded4.703.60
Match total11.706.609.91
Over 8.590% 9/1020% 2/10
Over 9.580% 8/1020% 2/10
Over 10.570% 7/1010% 1/10
Cards
Cards2.203.10
Opponent cards2.402.00
Match total4.605.104.73
Over 3.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 4.570% 7/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Real Sociedad9 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
3 0-15
3 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
3 7 61-75
3 5 76-90
Sevilla9 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
2 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 31-45
5 2 46-60
1 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
3 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
3 6 61-75
3 6 76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 31-45
5 3 46-60
1 3 61-75
5 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Valencia Osasuna Nov 2916:00 Malaga Athletic Club Nov 2916:00 Celta Vigo Villarreal Nov 2916:00 Levante Racing Santander Nov 2916:00 Espanyol Getafe Nov 2916:00 Real Madrid Alaves Nov 2916:00 Real Betis Rayo Vallecano Nov 2916:00 Deportivo La Coruna Barcelona Nov 2916:00 Real Sociedad Sevilla Nov 2916:00 Elche Atletico Madrid Nov 2916:00