UEFA Champions League Matchday 5 Wed, Nov 25 · 20:00 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
Atletico Madrid 15th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Viking 27th · 1 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,167 kmRest days3.2 · 21Matches / 14d1 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Atletico Madrid—%
Draw—%
Viking—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Madrid)

Forecast from 10 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Atletico Madrid and Viking. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Atletico MadridViking
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
81 Current StrengthIn forecast 16
82 AttackIn forecast 18
87 DefenceIn forecast 23
96 Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Viking

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atletico MadridViking
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.00
1.21 xGVia Att/Def —
1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+0.29 Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
9.00 ShotsContext 8.00
3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50
39% On target shareContext 44%
5.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.00
49% Box shareContext 71%
17% ConversionContext 25%
3.00 OffsidesContext —
10.50 Shots allowedContext 20.00
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
2.50 BlocksContext 8.00
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —
75% Save rateContext 63%
57% PossessionIn forecast 37%
545 PassesContext 299
472 Accurate passesContext 211
87% Pass accuracyContext 71%
7.01 Team ratingContext 6.44
10.50 FoulsContext 12.00
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.83
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.17
1.70 xGVia Att/Def —
1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+0.30 Goals minus xGContext —
90% Scored inContext 100%
40% Clean sheetsContext 0%
16.10 ShotsContext 10.67
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33
37% On target shareContext 41%
9.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.33
58% Box shareContext 70%
12% ConversionContext 17%
2.20 OffsidesContext 2.33
10.20 Shots allowedContext 16.50
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.17
2.90 BlocksContext 5.17
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25
71% Save rateContext 68%
60% PossessionIn forecast 44%
588 PassesContext 359
517 Accurate passesContext 269
88% Pass accuracyContext 75%
7.04 Team ratingContext 6.67
11.30 FoulsContext 13.33
11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.83
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.17
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 6 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km25 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +6.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Espanyol1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Manchester United2–01.7 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Alaves2–11.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Real Madrid2–11.1 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Osasuna4–01.9 xPts
Viking
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel2,167 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 47 · 1 pts vs 1.4 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
  • D13 OctH · Bayern München3–30.1 xPts
  • L9 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–30.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Atletico Madrid Viking
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 8Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.2La Liga 2026-2027, 22 Nov21UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 4 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,167 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways25 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 40 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one3.812.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-1-2 · vs Espanyol (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
13J. Oblak(G)
30Dani Martínez 17D. Hancko 21C. Romero 18Marc Pubill
23M. Hjulmand 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone
7K. Lee
11A. Lookman 15J. David
Viking Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Bayern München (H) 3–3, 13 Oct
1A. Østbø(G)
28K. Haugen 25H. Falchener 6G. Stensness 5H. Heggheim
7K. Askildsen 8J. Bell 16H. Bjørdal
10Z. Tripić 22E. Botheim 20P. Christiansen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Atletico Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Viking Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00
Viking · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Atletico MadridVikingForecast
Scored per game 1.502.00
Conceded per game 1.003.00
Match goals 2.505.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 50%100%
Over 3.5 0%100%
Both teams scored 50%100%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
Atletico MadridVikingForecast
Scored per game 2.002.25
Conceded per game 1.002.25
Match goals 3.004.50
Over 1.5 90%100%
Over 2.5 80%100%
Over 3.5 30%100%
Both teams scored 50%100%
Clean sheets 40%0%
Failed to score 10%0%
Games104

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Atletico MadridVikingLeague
Corners
Corners won3.504.50
Corners conceded5.009.50
Match total8.5014.009.71
Over 8.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 9.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 10.550% 1/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards1.502.50
Opponent cards1.502.00
Match total3.004.503.80
Over 3.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 4.50% 0/250% 1/2
Atletico MadridVikingLeague
Corners
Corners won5.004.67
Corners conceded4.256.17
Match total9.2510.849.71
Over 8.550% 4/867% 4/6
Over 9.550% 4/850% 3/6
Over 10.550% 4/850% 3/6
Cards
Cards2.202.17
Opponent cards1.702.17
Match total3.904.343.80
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 3/6
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 3/6

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Atletico Madrid2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Viking2 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
1 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
2 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
8 3 76-90
Viking6 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2 3 0-15
3 2 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
1 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures UEFA Champions League

View all fixtures →
Bodo/Glimt Lask Linz Nov 2417:45 Galatasaray Aston Villa Nov 2417:45 Arsenal Borussia Dortmund Nov 2420:00 Manchester City Napoli Nov 2420:00 RB Leipzig Lens Nov 2420:00 Feyenoord FC Porto Nov 2420:00 Real Madrid PSV Eindhoven Nov 2420:00 Slovan Bratislava Real Betis Nov 2420:00 Como AEK Athens FC Nov 2420:00 Slavia Praha Villarreal Nov 2517:45 Sabah FA Barcelona Nov 2517:45 Lille Bayern München Nov 2520:00 Paris Saint Germain AS Roma Nov 2520:00 Sporting CP Manchester United Nov 2520:00 Inter VfB Stuttgart Nov 2520:00 Atletico Madrid Viking Nov 2520:00 Shakhtar Donetsk Fenerbahce Nov 2520:00 Club Brugge KV Liverpool Nov 2520:00