La Liga Gameweek 14 Sun, Nov 29 · 16:00 Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga
Malaga 20th · 4 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Athletic Club 11th · 9 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel739 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Malaga—%
Draw—%
Athletic Club—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Málaga)

Forecast from 14 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Malaga and Athletic Club. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

MalagaAthletic Club
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
41 Current StrengthIn forecast 53
28 AttackIn forecast 51
31 DefenceIn forecast 64
15 Form indexContext 70
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Malaga

Attack—
Defense risk—

Athletic Club

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

MalagaAthletic Club
0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86
0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.48
1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27
-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.48
56% Scored inContext 57%
11% Clean sheetsContext 57%
11.33 ShotsContext 14.71
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
27% On target shareContext 29%
6.67 Shots in the boxContext 9.14
62% Box shareContext 65%
6% ConversionContext 7%
1.63 OffsidesContext 3.33
14.89 Shots allowedContext 10.43
5.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.17
4.00 BlocksContext 1.80
3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
64% Save rateContext 83%
51% PossessionIn forecast 54%
481 PassesContext 494
417 Accurate passesContext 420
87% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.70 Team ratingContext 6.88
11.56 FoulsContext 11.43
11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 11.71
2.44 Yellow cardsContext 2.14
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 9 and 7 games
0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.43
1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17
-0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.43
60% Scored inContext 60%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
11.40 ShotsContext 14.60
3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.89
28% On target shareContext 30%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.80
64% Box shareContext 69%
7% ConversionContext 7%
1.63 OffsidesContext 2.50
14.70 Shots allowedContext 10.10
5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44
3.70 BlocksContext 1.71
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
66% Save rateContext 72%
51% PossessionIn forecast 50%
474 PassesContext 448
408 Accurate passesContext 372
86% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.77
10.90 FoulsContext 12.70
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Malaga
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,436 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 15 · 2 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Real Sociedad2–51.5 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Espanyol1–11.6 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Getafe0–11.2 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Villarreal1–31.3 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Celta Vigo1–11.2 xPts
Athletic Club
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel739 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Valencia0–01.4 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Alaves0–01.6 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Elche1–12.0 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Atletico Madrid3–01.3 xPts
  • W30 AugA · Celta Vigo2–01.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Malaga Athletic Club
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 22 Nov7La Liga 2026-2027, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km739 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,436 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 21 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Malaga Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 2–5, 18 Oct
1Alfonso Herrero(G)
12José Salinas 15Ángel Recio 20F. Calero Villa 31Rafita
18Pablo Martínez 8Carlos Dotor 23Izan Merino 10David Larrubia
9Chupe 21Adrián Niño
Athletic Club Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Valencia (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1Unai Simón(G)
31J. Louis-Jean 14A. Laporte 4Aitor Paredes 15Hugo Rincón
16Ruíz de Galarreta 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
23Robert Navarro 28Peio Canales 7Álex Berenguer
9I. Williams

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Malaga Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Athletic Club Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Malaga · Home 0.60points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
0-3-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00
Athletic Club · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
0.67
Conceded
0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentMalagaAthletic Club
Celta Vigo D 1–1 A W 2–0 A
Atletico Madrid L 0–2 A W 3–0 H
Points1 of 6 · 0.50 per game6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

MalagaAthletic ClubForecast
Scored per game 0.671.00
Conceded per game 2.000.86
Match goals 2.671.86
Over 1.5 78%71%
Over 2.5 33%29%
Over 3.5 33%14%
Both teams scored 56%29%
Clean sheets 11%57%
Failed to score 44%43%
Games97
MalagaAthletic ClubForecast
Scored per game 0.671.00
Conceded per game 2.001.30
Match goals 2.672.30
Over 1.5 78%80%
Over 2.5 33%30%
Over 3.5 33%20%
Both teams scored 56%40%
Clean sheets 11%40%
Failed to score 44%40%
Games910

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

MalagaAthletic ClubLeague
Corners
Corners won5.566.14
Corners conceded4.894.43
Match total10.4510.579.91
Over 8.578% 7/957% 4/7
Over 9.567% 6/957% 4/7
Over 10.544% 4/957% 4/7
Cards
Cards2.442.29
Opponent cards2.331.86
Match total4.774.154.73
Over 3.567% 6/943% 3/7
Over 4.567% 6/943% 3/7
MalagaAthletic ClubLeague
Corners
Corners won5.705.89
Corners conceded5.104.56
Match total10.8010.459.91
Over 8.580% 8/1056% 5/9
Over 9.570% 7/1056% 5/9
Over 10.550% 5/1056% 5/9
Cards
Cards2.601.80
Opponent cards2.301.70
Match total4.903.504.73
Over 3.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 4.570% 7/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Malaga9 games · scored 6 · conceded 18
1 2 0-15
5 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
2 4 76-90
Athletic Club7 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Malaga10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
1 2 0-15
5 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 1 46-60
3 3 61-75
2 5 76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
3 0-15
2 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Valencia Osasuna Nov 2916:00 Malaga Athletic Club Nov 2916:00 Celta Vigo Villarreal Nov 2916:00 Levante Racing Santander Nov 2916:00 Espanyol Getafe Nov 2916:00 Real Madrid Alaves Nov 2916:00 Real Betis Rayo Vallecano Nov 2916:00 Deportivo La Coruna Barcelona Nov 2916:00 Real Sociedad Sevilla Nov 2916:00 Elche Atletico Madrid Nov 2916:00