Everton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Crystal Palace were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 68). Absences weigh more on Everton. Everton had 5.8 days of rest, Crystal Palace 8 and had to travel 286 km.
Away travel286 kmRest days5.8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Everton34%
Draw27%
Crystal Palace39%
Everton35%
Draw27%
Crystal Palace38%
Everton35%
Draw27%
Crystal Palace38%
Everton27%
Draw26%
Crystal Palace47%
Everton34%
Draw27%
Crystal Palace39%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Salisbury
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 73
Team strength
Everton
Crystal Palace
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
61
AttackIn forecast
64
66
DefenceIn forecast
54
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCrystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EvertonCrystal Palace
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.90
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.57
67%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.50
ShotsContext
12.17
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
26%
On target shareContext
38%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
68%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
6.00
BlocksContext
3.17
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
67%
Save rateContext
79%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
380
PassesContext
349
299
Accurate passesContext
275
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.04
9.83
FoulsContext
10.33
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.83
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.65
80%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
11.50
ShotsContext
12.70
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
34%
On target shareContext
38%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
70%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
11.10
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
4.80
BlocksContext
2.90
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
76%
Save rateContext
78%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
383
PassesContext
395
310
Accurate passesContext
314
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.04
Team ratingContext
7.03
9.50
FoulsContext
9.70
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Everton
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Crystal Palace
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel286 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Everton |
Crystal Palace |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Premier League 2025-2026, 29 Sep | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
5M. Keane
6J. Tarkowski
15J. O'Brien
27I. Gueye
37J. Garner
18J. Grealish
10I. Ndiaye
20T. Dibling
11T. Barry
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
1D. Henderson(G)
6A. Guéhi
5M. Lacroix
26Chris Richards
3T. Mitchell
18Daichi Kamada
20A. Wharton
2D. Muñoz
10Yeremy Pino
7I. Sarr
14J. Mateta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Everton
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Crystal Palace
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Everton-1.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Crystal Palace+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Everton · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
Crystal Palace · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Everton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Liverpool | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Aston Villa | D 0–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
6 Everton wins3 draws1 Crystal Palace wins
Goals per game1.80 – 1.20
Over 2.570%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 10%
- 15 Feb 2025Crystal Palace1–2Everton
- 28 Sep 2024Everton2–1Crystal Palace
- 19 Feb 2024Everton1–1Crystal Palace
- 11 Nov 2023Crystal Palace2–3Everton
- 22 Apr 2023Crystal Palace0–0Everton
- 22 Oct 2022Everton3–0Crystal Palace
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 1.83 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 1.83 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Everton | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 3.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.83 | |
| Match total | 7.83 | 10.00 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 4.66 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.00 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.20 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Salisbury 73 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.52league 3.74
Red cards0.22league 0.14
Cards 5+36%league 42%
Fouls22.1league 22.0
Penalties0.25league 0.20
Home wins49%league 48%
EvertonNo previous matches with this referee.
Crystal Palace6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D23 Apr 25A · Arsenal2–21
- L27 Dec 23A · Chelsea1–22
- W13 May 23H · Bournemouth2–00
- W29 Oct 22H · Southampton1–03
- D3 Sep 22A · Newcastle0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Everton6 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Crystal Palace6 games · scored 8 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 12 · conceded 4
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
