Everton vs Tottenham – 26 Oct 2025

Premier League Gameweek 9 Sun, Oct 26 · 16:30 Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside

Everton 14th · 11 pts · 8 played DLDWL

0–3Full time

Tottenham 8th · 14 pts · 8 played WDDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Everton were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Everton had 8.1 days of rest, Tottenham 7.1 and had to travel 286 km.

Away travel286 kmRest days8.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Everton43%

Draw26%

Tottenham31%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.28

Everton43%

Draw27%

Tottenham30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Everton43%

Draw26%

Tottenham31%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.28

Everton36%

Draw26%

Tottenham38%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.44

Everton43%

Draw27%

Tottenham30%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.22

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)

No weather data yet

RefereeCraig Pawson

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 129

Team strength

Everton

Tottenham

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

61 AttackIn forecast 56

66 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Everton

Tottenham

1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.75

1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.88

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.71

63% Scored inContext 88%

25% Clean sheetsContext 38%

11.00 ShotsContext 10.88

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.63

30% On target shareContext 33%

7.63 Shots in the boxContext 7.75

70% Box shareContext 70%

10% ConversionContext 16%

1.40 OffsidesContext 2.57

14.00 Shots allowedContext 12.00

4.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.88

5.75 BlocksContext 2.43

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.43

67% Save rateContext 83%

44% PossessionIn forecast 55%

377 PassesContext 441

298 Accurate passesContext 374

79% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.96

10.75 FoulsContext 11.88

12.75 Fouls sufferedContext 9.25

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.40 xGVia Att/Def 0.89

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.51

70% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.50 ShotsContext 9.90

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.90

32% On target shareContext 29%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

69% Box shareContext 68%

10% ConversionContext 14%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.20

13.50 Shots allowedContext 13.30

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

5.10 BlocksContext 3.44

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75

73% Save rateContext 81%

44% PossessionIn forecast 52%

379 PassesContext 428

303 Accurate passesContext 361

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.10 FoulsContext 11.11

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Everton

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km99 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Tottenham

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel286 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Everton	Tottenham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Oct	7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 19 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	99 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 5M. Keane 6J. Tarkowski 15J. O'Brien

37J. Garner 27I. Gueye

18J. Grealish 22K. Dewsbury-Hall 10I. Ndiaye

9Beto

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1G. Vicario(G)

24D. Spence 37M. van de Ven 4K. Danso 23Pedro Porro

30R. Bentancur 6João Palhinha

7X. Simons 20M. Kudus 22B. Johnson

39R. Kolo Muani

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Everton Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Tottenham Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Everton+0.9 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Tottenham-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Everton · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-0
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 0.50

Tottenham · Away 2.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Everton	Tottenham
Manchester City	L 0–2 A	W 2–0 A
West Ham	D 1–1 H	W 3–0 A
Aston Villa	D 0–0 H	L 1–2 H
Wolves	W 3–2 A	D 1–1 H
Brighton	W 2–0 H	D 2–2 A
Leeds	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 A
Points	8 of 18 · 1.33 per game	11 of 18 · 1.83 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Everton wins4 draws4 Tottenham wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.560% Both scored50% Clean sheets20% · 40%

19 Jan 2025Everton3–2Tottenham
24 Aug 2024Tottenham4–0Everton
3 Feb 2024Everton2–2Tottenham
23 Dec 2023Tottenham2–1Everton
3 Apr 2023Everton1–1Tottenham
15 Oct 2022Tottenham2–0Everton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Everton	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.13	1.75
Conceded per game	1.13	0.88
Match goals	2.25	2.63	2.85
Over 1.5	75%	88%
Over 2.5	38%	63%	54%
Over 3.5	13%	13%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	25%	38%
Failed to score	38%	13%
Games	8	8

	Everton	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.13	1.75
Conceded per game	1.13	0.88
Match goals	2.25	2.63	2.85
Over 1.5	75%	88%
Over 2.5	38%	63%	54%
Over 3.5	13%	13%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	25%	38%
Failed to score	38%	13%
Games	8	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Everton	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	6.86
Corners conceded	4.88	5.00
Match total	8.38	11.86	9.76
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	86% 6/7
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	71% 5/7
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	71% 5/7
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.13
Opponent cards	1.88	1.38
Match total	4.38	3.51	3.68
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8

	Everton	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	6.00
Corners conceded	5.60	4.67
Match total	9.10	10.67	9.76
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.40
Opponent cards	1.70	1.70
Match total	4.20	4.10	3.68
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Craig Pawson 129 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.01league 3.57

Red cards0.11league 0.11

Cards 5+40%league 39%

Fouls22.9league 21.9

Penalties0.22league 0.20

Home wins43%league 51%

Everton13 with this referee

Record2-2-9 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds2

D14 Dec 24A · Arsenal0–03
D5 Oct 24H · Newcastle0–01
L14 Sep 24A · Aston Villa2–34
L2 Mar 24H · West Ham1–31
L21 Oct 23A · Liverpool0–23

Tottenham12 with this referee

Record4-1-7 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L26 Dec 24A · Nottingham Forest0–14
W3 Nov 24H · Aston Villa4–12
W11 Mar 23H · Nottingham Forest3–13
L15 Jan 23H · Arsenal0–24
W28 Aug 22A · Nottingham Forest2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.