FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC Augsburg
9th · 31 pts · 26 played
WWWLL
2–5Full time
VfB Stuttgart
4th · 50 pts · 26 played
WDWDW
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC Augsburg. FC Augsburg had 8.2 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 2.9 and had to travel 135 km.
Away travel135 kmRest days8.2 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
FC Augsburg31%
Draw25%
VfB Stuttgart44%
FC Augsburg29%
Draw27%
VfB Stuttgart45%
FC Augsburg31%
Draw25%
VfB Stuttgart44%
FC Augsburg24%
Draw23%
VfB Stuttgart52%
FC Augsburg32%
Draw26%
VfB Stuttgart42%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 124
Team strength
FC AugsburgVfB Stuttgart
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
68
72
AttackIn forecast
70
23
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC AugsburgVfB Stuttgart
1.19
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.96
1.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
69%
Scored inContext
92%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
12.15
ShotsContext
14.77
4.08
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.65
34%
On target shareContext
38%
7.36
Shots in the boxContext
9.73
61%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.38
13.15
Shots allowedContext
11.96
4.48
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.19
4.39
BlocksContext
3.15
2.91
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
63%
Save rateContext
72%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
396
PassesContext
516
317
Accurate passesContext
435
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.94
11.08
FoulsContext
9.54
11.15
Fouls sufferedContext
11.96
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.85
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.10
ShotsContext
15.10
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
38%
On target shareContext
38%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
60%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.40
Shots allowedContext
10.40
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.67
BlocksContext
2.22
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
72%
Save rateContext
64%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
392
PassesContext
541
312
Accurate passesContext
455
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.10
FoulsContext
9.10
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km854 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfB Stuttgart
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel135 km3,262 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 33 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 19 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 135 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 854 km | 3,262 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 7 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.8 | 12.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
31K. Schlotterbeck
40N. Banks
13D. Giannoulis
4H. Massengo
8E. Rexhbeçaj
19Robin Fellhauer
20A. Claude-Maurice
32F. Rieder
21Rodrigo Ribeiro
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
22L. Assignon
30Chema Andrés
6A. Stiller
10C. Führich
28N. Nartey
8Tiago Tomás
26D. Undav
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- VfB Stuttgart-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
1.62points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-4
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.46
VfB Stuttgart · Away
1.38points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-5
- Scored
- 2.23
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Augsburg | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | D 3–3 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 AL 0–6 H | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–2 AW 3–1 H | W 4–0 HW 3–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | L 0–5 H |
| SC Freiburg | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–4 A | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 0–0 H | W 4–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–0 H | W 4–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 31 of 75 · 1.24 per game | 47 of 75 · 1.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 FC Augsburg wins1 draws7 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game1.11 – 2.11
Over 2.567%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets0% · 44%
- 9 Nov 2025VfB Stuttgart3–2FC Augsburg
- 11 May 2025VfB Stuttgart4–0FC Augsburg
- 12 Jan 2025FC Augsburg0–1VfB Stuttgart
- 10 May 2024FC Augsburg0–1VfB Stuttgart
- 20 Dec 2023VfB Stuttgart3–0FC Augsburg
- 21 Apr 2023FC Augsburg1–1VfB Stuttgart
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.19 | 1.96 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.73 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 2.92 | 3.27 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 73% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 46% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 58% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 8% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| FC Augsburg | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.54 | 5.16 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.19 | 4.24 | |
| Match total | 9.73 | 9.40 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 16/26 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 13/26 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 11/26 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.54 | 1.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.65 | 1.65 | |
| Match total | 4.19 | 3.53 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 17/26 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 14/26 | 35% 9/26 | |
| FC Augsburg | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 9.90 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 124 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.69league 3.73
Red cards0.15league 0.18
Cards 5+54%league 38%
Fouls21.9league 20.4
Penalties0.31league 0.36
Home wins44%league 45%
FC Augsburg7 with this referee
Record5-0-2
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W15 Feb 26H · 1. FC Heidenheim1–00
- W23 Aug 25A · SC Freiburg3–15
- L14 Dec 24H · Bayer Leverkusen0–23
- W15 Sep 24H · FC St. Pauli3–14
- W2 Mar 24A · SV Darmstadt 986–00
VfB Stuttgart10 with this referee
Record4-2-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.2
Pens for · against4 · 3
- W10 Jan 26A · Bayer Leverkusen4–12
- W26 Oct 25H · FSV Mainz 052–13
- W18 Jan 25H · SC Freiburg4–05
- L10 Nov 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–32
- D27 Apr 24A · Bayer Leverkusen2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg26 games · scored 31 · conceded 45
3
5
0-15
3
9
16-30
6
9
31-45
8
8
46-60
2
7
61-75
9
7
76-90
VfB Stuttgart26 games · scored 51 · conceded 34
3
4
0-15
8
4
16-30
11
8
31-45
6
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
18
14
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
3
5
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
8
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
