FC Augsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Augsburg
9th · 31 pts · 26 played
WWWLL
2–5Full time
VfB Stuttgart
4th · 50 pts · 26 played
WDWDW
FC Augsburg31.0%fair odds 3.23
Draw24.7%fair odds 4.05
VfB Stuttgart44.3%fair odds 2.26
Expected goals1.39 – 1.70total 3.10
Likeliest score1–111.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Augsburg ↓ · VfB Stuttgart → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Augsburg goals, columns VfB Stuttgart goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%8.85
- 1–29.1%10.95
- 2–17.5%13.37
- 0–17.1%14.03
- 0–26.5%15.27
- 2–26.4%15.71
- 1–05.7%17.43
- 1–35.2%19.30
- 0–05.1%19.65
- 2–04.4%22.75
Winning margin
5.1%
FC Augsburg by 3+
fair 19.69
9.1%
FC Augsburg by 2
fair 11.01
16.8%
FC Augsburg by 1
fair 5.94
24.7%
Draw
fair 4.05
20.7%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 4.84
13.5%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 7.39
10.1%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 9.92
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
FC Augsburg goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
VfB Stuttgart goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 31.0% | 31.5% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 24.7% | 26.1% | -1.4 pp |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 44.3% | 42.3% | +2.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.8% | 53.9% | +5.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 62.1% | 57.7% | +4.4 pp |
| Expected goals FC Augsburg | 1.39 | 1.30 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 1.70 | 1.54 | +0.17 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Augsburg win31.0%3.23
- Draw24.7%4.05
- VfB Stuttgart win44.3%2.26
- Double chance FC Augsburg or draw55.7%1.80
- Double chance FC Augsburg or VfB Stuttgart75.3%1.33
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw69.0%1.45
- Draw no bet FC Augsburg41.2%2.43
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart58.8%1.70
Goals
- Over 0.594.9%1.05
- Over 1.582.0%1.22
- Over 2.559.8%1.67
- Over 3.537.4%2.67
- Over 4.520.1%4.97
- Under 1.518.0%5.57
- Under 2.540.2%2.49
- Under 3.562.6%1.60
Both teams to score
- Yes62.1%1.61
- No37.9%2.64
- Yes and over 2.550.8%1.97
- FC Augsburg win and yes17.9%5.60
- Draw and yes19.6%5.10
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes24.6%4.07
Team goals
- FC Augsburg over 0.575.2%1.33
- FC Augsburg over 1.540.6%2.46
- FC Augsburg over 2.516.5%6.06
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.581.8%1.22
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.550.7%1.97
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.524.3%4.11
- FC Augsburg clean sheet18.2%5.48
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet24.8%4.03
- FC Augsburg win to nil13.1%7.61
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil19.7%5.07
Handicap
- FC Augsburg −1.514.2%7.06
- FC Augsburg −2.55.1%19.69
- VfB Stuttgart +1.585.8%1.17
- VfB Stuttgart +2.594.9%1.05
- VfB Stuttgart −1.523.6%4.23
- FC Augsburg +1.576.4%1.31
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored242
Favourite won57.0%
Avg chance given to result43.4%
1X2 Brier0.558
Over 2.5 called right59.9%
BTTS called right56.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 32 | 38.3% | 37.5% |
| 40–50% | 74 | 45.0% | 45.9% |
| 50–60% | 66 | 55.2% | 62.1% |
| 60–70% | 39 | 64.5% | 69.2% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 74.1% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 11 | 86.3% | 81.8% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 195 of 242 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5497 | 0.5466 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.8% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 58.5% | 57.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 195 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 242 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.