FC Midtjylland vs Nottingham Forest – 19 Mar 2026

UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Thu, Mar 19 · 17:45 MCH Arena, Herning

FC Midtjylland 4th · 3 pts · 1 played W

First leg1–0 1–2Full time

Nottingham Forest 13th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Nottingham Forest were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 57). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Nottingham Forest. FC Midtjylland had 6.9 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 4.2 and had to travel 742 km.

Away travel742 kmRest days6.9 · 4.2Matches / 14d1 · 2

FC Midtjylland35%

Draw28%

Nottingham Forest37%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.30

FC Midtjylland40%

Draw27%

Nottingham Forest33%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.27

FC Midtjylland35%

Draw28%

Nottingham Forest37%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.29

FC Midtjylland28%

Draw27%

Nottingham Forest44%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.45

FC Midtjylland34%

Draw29%

Nottingham Forest37%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.26

Over 2.5 47% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Herning)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 123

Team strength

FC Midtjylland

Nottingham Forest

57 L90 StrengthIn forecast 63

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 70

37 AttackIn forecast 68

42 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Midtjylland

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Midtjylland

Nottingham Forest

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

+0.41 Goals minus xGContext -0.50

80% Scored inContext 60%

50% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.30 ShotsContext 16.80

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

45% On target shareContext 27%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.20

69% Box shareContext 56%

16% ConversionContext 5%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.56

12.40 Shots allowedContext 10.80

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

3.70 BlocksContext 3.33

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

83% Save rateContext 63%

56% PossessionIn forecast 46%

409 PassesContext 410

324 Accurate passesContext 340

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.87

14.30 FoulsContext 10.00

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Midtjylland

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,484 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nottingham Forest

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel742 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Midtjylland	Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 12 Mar	4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 15 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	742 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,484 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	2 / 2 / 7
Next matchdays after this one	126	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Midtjylland Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16E. Ólafsson(G)

55V. Bak Jensen 22M. Bech 6M. Erlić 4O. Diao

19P. Bravo 8P. Billing

11D. Osorio 20V. Byskov 21D. Castillo

74Júnior Brumado

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

27S. Ortega(G)

4Morato 31N. Milenković 44Z. Abbott

29D. Bakwa 16N. Domínguez 22R. Yates 14D. Ndoye

24J. McAtee 21O. Hutchinson

20L. Lucca

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Midtjylland Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nottingham Forest Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FC Midtjylland+0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Nottingham Forest-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Midtjylland · Home No home games yet this season.

Nottingham Forest · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 FC Midtjylland wins0 draws0 Nottingham Forest wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

12 Mar 2026Nottingham Forest0–1FC Midtjylland
2 Oct 2025Nottingham Forest2–3FC Midtjylland

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FC Midtjylland	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	1.00	2.55
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	53%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	FC Midtjylland	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	2.11	0.90
Conceded per game	0.89	1.20
Match goals	3.00	2.10	2.55
Over 1.5	78%	60%
Over 2.5	56%	50%	47%
Over 3.5	33%	20%
Both teams scored	44%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	56%	30%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	9	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Midtjylland	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	7.00
Corners conceded	7.00	2.00
Match total	9.00	9.00	8.50
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	0.00
Match total	1.00	1.00	3.88
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	FC Midtjylland	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	6.10
Corners conceded	5.00	3.80
Match total	10.10	9.90	8.50
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.40
Opponent cards	1.90	1.60
Match total	3.90	3.00	3.88
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 123 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.68league 3.89

Red cards0.15league 0.33

Cards 5+54%league 56%

Fouls21.7league 25.8

Penalties0.32league 0.11

Home wins44%league 44%

FC Midtjylland

No previous matches with this referee.

Nottingham Forest

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.