Ferencvarosi TC vs SC Braga – 12 Mar 2026

UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Thu, Mar 12 · 20:00 Groupama Aréna, Budapest

Ferencvarosi TC

2–0Full time

SC Braga

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

SC Braga were slight favourites.

SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 44). SC Braga usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Ferencvarosi TC had 14.1 days of rest, SC Braga 5.1 and had to travel 2,262 km.

Away travel2,262 kmRest days14.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d0 · 2

Ferencvarosi TC32%

Draw26%

SC Braga43%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.59

Ferencvarosi TC31%

Draw27%

SC Braga41%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.45

Ferencvarosi TC31%

Draw26%

SC Braga42%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.54

Ferencvarosi TC25%

Draw24%

SC Braga51%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.78

Ferencvarosi TC32%

Draw26%

SC Braga41%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.50

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Budapest)

No weather data yet

RefereeNick Walsh

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 73

Team strength

Ferencvarosi TC

SC Braga

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65

57 Current StrengthIn forecast 56

61 AttackIn forecast 42

56 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ferencvarosi TC

Attack—

Defense risk—

SC Braga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Ferencvarosi TC

SC Braga

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.44 xGVia Att/Def 1.62

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.97

+0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.58

90% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 60%

12.30 ShotsContext 11.00

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.89

34% On target shareContext 40%

8.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

72% Box shareContext 69%

12% ConversionContext 20%

1.78 OffsidesContext 1.57

12.80 Shots allowedContext 8.90

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.63

3.40 BlocksContext 2.60

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

70% Save rateContext 76%

46% PossessionIn forecast 60%

390 PassesContext 569

315 Accurate passesContext 496

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.88 Team ratingContext 7.01

14.70 FoulsContext 12.00

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ferencvarosi TC

Rest14.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

SC Braga

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel2,262 km2,479 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Ferencvarosi TC	SC Braga
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 25
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 26 Feb	5.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,262 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	2,479 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ferencvarosi TC Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

99D. Gróf(G)

4M. Gómez 28T. Raemaekers 27I. Cissé

47C. O'Dowda 16K. Zachariassen 36G. Kanichowsky 25Č. Makreckis

15M. Abu Fani

75L. Joseph 11B. Yusuf

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

SC Braga Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1L. Horníček(G)

26B. Arrey-Mbi 4S. Niakaté 14G. Lagerbielke

5Leonardo Lelo 8João Moutinho 27F. Grillitsch 20M. Dorgeles

21Ricardo Horta 10R. Zalazar

18Pau Víctor

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Ferencvarosi TC Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

SC Braga Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Ferencvarosi TC+0.1 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
SC Braga+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Ferencvarosi TC · Home No home games yet this season.

SC Braga · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Ferencvarosi TC	SC Braga	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.92
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	56%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	59%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Ferencvarosi TC	SC Braga	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	2.20
Conceded per game	1.30	0.70
Match goals	2.80	2.90	2.92
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	56%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	59%
Clean sheets	20%	60%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Ferencvarosi TC	SC Braga	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	7.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.75
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Ferencvarosi TC	SC Braga	League
Corners
Corners won	3.90	5.00
Corners conceded	4.90	2.13
Match total	8.80	7.13	7.50
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.90	1.90
Opponent cards	2.10	2.00
Match total	5.00	3.90	4.75
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Nick Walsh 73 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.55league 4.25

Red cards0.25league 0.50

Cards 5+55%league 75%

Fouls25.1league 26.8

Penalties0.30league 0.25

Home wins45%league 25%

Ferencvarosi TC1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D22 Aug 24H · Borac Banja Luka0–01

SC Braga1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.6.0 · 7.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

L23 Jan 25A · Union St. Gilloise1–26

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.