FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund

Bundesliga Gameweek 32 Sat, May 8 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 5th · 10 pts · 6 played WLWLW

VS— Compare

Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 14 pts · 6 played WWWDD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel180 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

FSV Mainz 05—%

Draw—%

Borussia Dortmund—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Mainz)

Forecast from 23 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak FSV Mainz 05 5 Scoring in a row Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

FSV Mainz 05

Borussia Dortmund

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

68 AttackIn forecast 69

56 DefenceIn forecast 80

70 Form indexContext 61

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 05

Borussia Dortmund

2.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.83

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.67

2.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.76

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

83% Scored inContext 83%

50% Clean sheetsContext 67%

17.83 ShotsContext 15.17

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.17

34% On target shareContext 34%

13.33 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

76% Box shareContext 73%

13% ConversionContext 12%

2.40 OffsidesContext 1.50

12.50 Shots allowedContext 11.67

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

4.17 BlocksContext 2.80

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

57% Save rateContext 78%

51% PossessionIn forecast 55%

446 PassesContext 530

357 Accurate passesContext 450

80% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.94 Team ratingContext 7.04

13.83 FoulsContext 11.17

11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 11.83

2.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.17

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

2.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.85

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

90% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 50%

17.10 ShotsContext 14.70

6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

36% On target shareContext 39%

12.80 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

75% Box shareContext 72%

13% ConversionContext 13%

2.22 OffsidesContext 1.63

12.50 Shots allowedContext 11.20

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

3.30 BlocksContext 2.78

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

58% Save rateContext 77%

48% PossessionIn forecast 54%

420 PassesContext 530

337 Accurate passesContext 454

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.99

12.80 FoulsContext 10.90

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05 WLWLW

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km283 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected

W17 OctA · FC Schalke 041–01.3 xPts
L10 OctH · Bayer Leverkusen3–41.2 xPts
W19 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.5 xPts
L12 SepH · Eintracht Frankfurt1–31.9 xPts
W6 SepA · Hamburger SV5–01.4 xPts

Borussia Dortmund WWDLD

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel180 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected

D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Dortmund
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14Bundesliga 2026-2027, 24 Apr	14Bundesliga 2026-2027, 24 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	180 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	283 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs FC Schalke 04 (A) 1–0, 17 Oct

1A. Schwolow(G)

48K. Potulski 4S. Posch 21D. da Costa

2P. Mwene 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 19A. Caci

9P. Tietz 23S. Becker

Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct

1G. Kobel(G)

4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou

24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson

14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri

9S. Guirassy

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FSV Mainz 05 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Borussia Dortmund Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.33

Borussia Dortmund · Away 2.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Dortmund
Hamburger SV	W 5–0 A	W 2–0 H
SC Paderborn 07	D 0–0 H	W 3–0 H
Points	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 FSV Mainz 05 wins2 draws6 Borussia Dortmund wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.90 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets10% · 30%

13 Feb 2026Borussia Dortmund4–0FSV Mainz 05
27 Sep 2025FSV Mainz 050–2Borussia Dortmund
30 Mar 2025Borussia Dortmund3–1FSV Mainz 05
9 Nov 2024FSV Mainz 053–1Borussia Dortmund
11 May 2024FSV Mainz 053–0Borussia Dortmund
19 Dec 2023Borussia Dortmund1–1FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Dortmund
Scored per game	2.33	1.83
Conceded per game	1.67	0.67
Match goals	4.00	2.50
Over 1.5	67%	67%
Over 2.5	67%	50%
Over 3.5	67%	33%
Both teams scored	50%	33%
Clean sheets	50%	67%
Failed to score	17%	17%
Games	6	6

	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Dortmund
Scored per game	2.20	1.90
Conceded per game	1.80	0.90
Match goals	4.00	2.80
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%
Over 3.5	60%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	40%
Clean sheets	40%	50%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Dortmund	League
Corners
Corners won	4.83	4.83
Corners conceded	4.00	4.67
Match total	8.83	9.50	10.72
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	2.33	2.67
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	4.33	4.67	3.51
Over 3.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6
Over 4.5	17% 1/6	50% 3/6

	FSV Mainz 05	Borussia Dortmund	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	5.80
Corners conceded	4.90	4.50
Match total	9.70	10.30	10.72
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.20
Opponent cards	1.90	1.50
Match total	3.80	3.70	3.51
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.