Bundesliga Gameweek 32 Sat, May 8 · 14:30 Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Union Berlin 17th · 5 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Werder Bremen 8th · 9 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel315 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Union Berlin—%
Draw—%
Werder Bremen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Berlin)

Forecast from 23 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Union Berlin and Werder Bremen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Union BerlinWerder Bremen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
39 Current StrengthIn forecast 43
42 AttackIn forecast 56
41 DefenceIn forecast 45
38 Form indexContext 71
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union Berlin

Attack—
Defense risk—

Werder Bremen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union BerlinWerder Bremen
0.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.58
2.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68
-0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.42
50% Scored inContext 100%
33% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.83 ShotsContext 14.00
6.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.83
35% On target shareContext 49%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.67
64% Box shareContext 66%
7% ConversionContext 14%
2.60 OffsidesContext 2.17
15.67 Shots allowedContext 15.33
7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
4.20 BlocksContext 4.50
4.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
56% Save rateContext 61%
44% PossessionIn forecast 47%
359 PassesContext 476
268 Accurate passesContext 400
75% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.58 Team ratingContext 6.96
11.67 FoulsContext 12.00
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.17
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.17
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.31
2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81
+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.09
70% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.30 ShotsContext 12.70
5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30
38% On target shareContext 42%
8.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.44
63% Box shareContext 62%
12% ConversionContext 11%
2.43 OffsidesContext 2.44
14.50 Shots allowedContext 15.70
5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60
4.13 BlocksContext 4.40
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70
57% Save rateContext 66%
45% PossessionIn forecast 46%
372 PassesContext 458
285 Accurate passesContext 380
77% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.93
10.30 FoulsContext 10.30
9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 8.80
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union Berlin
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km966 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 38 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Borussia Dortmund0–00.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · SV Elversberg1–01.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Bayern München0–70.2 xPts
  • L11 SepH · FC Schalke 041–31.6 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.7 xPts
Werder Bremen
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel315 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 71 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · SC Paderborn 072–21.7 xPts
  • D9 OctA · Borussia Dortmund2–20.5 xPts
  • W19 SepH · FC Augsburg3–21.2 xPts
  • D12 SepA · 1.FC Köln1–11.1 xPts
  • W5 SepH · RB Leipzig3–10.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union Berlin Werder Bremen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14Bundesliga 2026-2027, 24 Apr14Bundesliga 2026-2027, 24 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km315 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways966 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union Berlin Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe 2O. Uduokhai 4Z. Van Den Bosch 19J. Haberer
13A. Schäfer 20M. Aebischer
30K. Imeri 11W. Jeong 8R. Khedira
21T. Skarke
Werder Bremen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Paderborn 07 (H) 2–2, 17 Oct
1K. Hein(G)
2O. Deman 32M. Friedl 5A. Pieper 13Arthur
44Y. Regeer 15L. Reis
17M. Grüll 20Chuky 18E. Dinkçi
10N. Füllkrug

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union Berlin Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Werder Bremen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Union Berlin · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.50
Werder Bremen · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-2-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentUnion BerlinWerder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund D 0–0 H D 2–2 A
Points1 of 3 · 1.00 per game1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Union Berlin wins1 draws4 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game1.13 – 1.88 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets13% · 25%
  • 8 Mar 2026Union Berlin1–4Werder Bremen
  • 24 Oct 2025Werder Bremen1–0Union Berlin
  • 3 May 2025Union Berlin2–2Werder Bremen
  • 21 Dec 2024Werder Bremen4–1Union Berlin
  • 16 Mar 2024Union Berlin2–1Werder Bremen
  • 28 Oct 2023Werder Bremen2–0Union Berlin

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union BerlinWerder BremenForecast
Scored per game 0.832.00
Conceded per game 2.832.00
Match goals 3.674.00
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 67%83%
Over 3.5 67%83%
Both teams scored 33%100%
Clean sheets 33%0%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games66
Union BerlinWerder BremenForecast
Scored per game 1.501.40
Conceded per game 2.301.90
Match goals 3.803.30
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 80%60%
Over 3.5 80%60%
Both teams scored 50%80%
Clean sheets 30%0%
Failed to score 30%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union BerlinWerder BremenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.003.67
Corners conceded5.835.83
Match total9.839.5010.72
Over 8.583% 5/667% 4/6
Over 9.567% 4/650% 3/6
Over 10.533% 2/650% 3/6
Cards
Cards2.501.17
Opponent cards2.001.33
Match total4.502.503.51
Over 3.583% 5/617% 1/6
Over 4.533% 2/60% 0/6
Union BerlinWerder BremenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.103.90
Corners conceded6.506.40
Match total10.6010.3010.72
Over 8.580% 8/1080% 8/10
Over 9.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 10.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards2.201.20
Opponent cards1.901.00
Match total4.102.203.51
Over 3.570% 7/1020% 2/10
Over 4.530% 3/100% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Union Berlin6 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
3 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
4 61-75
4 2 76-90
Werder Bremen6 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
1 31-45
1 3 46-60
4 61-75
6 3 76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
5 16-30
2 3 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 6 61-75
9 2 76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
1 1 0-15
1 6 16-30
2 31-45
1 4 46-60
5 2 61-75
6 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München Borussia Mönchengladbach May 814:30 SC Freiburg 1.FC Köln May 814:30 FSV Mainz 05 Borussia Dortmund May 814:30 Bayer Leverkusen Hamburger SV May 814:30 FC Augsburg VfB Stuttgart May 814:30 RB Leipzig SC Paderborn 07 May 814:30 FC Schalke 04 Eintracht Frankfurt May 814:30 Union Berlin Werder Bremen May 814:30 SV Elversberg 1899 Hoffenheim May 814:30