FSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FSV Mainz 05 were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards FSV Mainz 05. FSV Mainz 05 had 8.2 days of rest, SC Freiburg 2.9 and had to travel 223 km.
Away travel223 kmRest days8.2 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
FSV Mainz 0544%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg29%
FSV Mainz 0544%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg29%
FSV Mainz 0546%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg28%
FSV Mainz 0537%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg36%
FSV Mainz 0544%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg29%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mainz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 127
Team strength
FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
68
AttackIn forecast
63
56
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FSV Mainz 05SC Freiburg
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.46
1.54
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.68
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
68%
Scored inContext
71%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
10.86
ShotsContext
12.54
3.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.36
34%
On target shareContext
35%
8.69
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
75%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.46
14.32
Shots allowedContext
13.43
4.93
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.64
4.19
BlocksContext
4.44
3.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.07
68%
Save rateContext
66%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
352
PassesContext
400
263
Accurate passesContext
327
75%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.39
FoulsContext
8.96
9.89
Fouls sufferedContext
11.46
2.11
Yellow cardsContext
1.61
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
80%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.40
ShotsContext
12.00
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
37%
On target shareContext
42%
8.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
77%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
3.11
OffsidesContext
2.20
11.30
Shots allowedContext
14.10
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
3.20
BlocksContext
4.60
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
75%
Save rateContext
65%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
336
PassesContext
397
256
Accurate passesContext
327
76%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.60
FoulsContext
7.90
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FSV Mainz 05
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km184 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Freiburg
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel223 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FSV Mainz 05 |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 9 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 223 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 184 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
33D. Batz(G)
31D. Kohr
4S. Posch
21D. da Costa
6K. Sano
2P. Mwene
8P. Nebel
24Sota Kawasaki
22N. Veratschnig
23S. Becker
20P. Tietz
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
43B. Ogbus
28M. Ginter
17L. Kübler
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant
9L. Höler
22Cyriaque Irié
31I. Matanović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FSV Mainz 05
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FSV Mainz 05-1.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- SC Freiburg+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
FSV Mainz 05 · Home
1.21points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-5
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.21
SC Freiburg · Away
0.86points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-8
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FSV Mainz 05 | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H | D 3–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A | W 2–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | W 4–3 A |
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–4 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Union Berlin | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Bayern München | D 2–2 A | L 2–3 HL 2–6 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Points | 33 of 81 · 1.22 per game | 34 of 81 · 1.26 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
0 FSV Mainz 05 wins6 draws3 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets22% · 44%
- 30 Nov 2025SC Freiburg4–0FSV Mainz 05
- 15 Mar 2025FSV Mainz 052–2SC Freiburg
- 3 Nov 2024SC Freiburg0–0FSV Mainz 05
- 21 Apr 2024SC Freiburg1–1FSV Mainz 05
- 3 Dec 2023FSV Mainz 050–1SC Freiburg
- 19 Mar 2023FSV Mainz 051–1SC Freiburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FSV Mainz 05 | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.46 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.54 | 1.68 | |
| Match goals | 2.79 | 3.14 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 64% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 61% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 29% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FSV Mainz 05 | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.38 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 9.38 | 9.21 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 15/26 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 12/26 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 9/26 | 29% 7/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.82 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 4.11 | 4.14 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 17/28 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 10/28 | 39% 11/28 | |
| FSV Mainz 05 | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 8.66 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.40 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 127 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.68league 3.74
Red cards0.15league 0.18
Cards 5+54%league 38%
Fouls21.9league 20.4
Penalties0.31league 0.37
Home wins43%league 44%
FSV Mainz 0510 with this referee
Record5-1-4
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0
Pens for · against4 · 0
- L17 Jan 26A · 1.FC Köln1–24
- L26 Oct 25A · VfB Stuttgart1–22
- D19 Apr 25H · VfL Wolfsburg2–22
- W22 Feb 25H · FC St. Pauli2–03
- L19 Oct 24H · RB Leipzig0–21
SC Freiburg8 with this referee
Record1-3-4
Cards · opp.2.1 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D14 Dec 25H · Borussia Dortmund1–13
- L23 Aug 25H · FC Augsburg1–34
- L5 Apr 25H · Borussia Dortmund1–41
- L18 Jan 25A · VfB Stuttgart0–43
- D24 Sep 23A · Eintracht Frankfurt0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FSV Mainz 0528 games · scored 35 · conceded 43
5
9
0-15
4
6
16-30
7
6
31-45
4
5
46-60
7
2
61-75
8
15
76-90
SC Freiburg28 games · scored 41 · conceded 47
7
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
7
9
31-45
8
15
46-60
7
3
61-75
10
12
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
4
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
