FSV Mainz 05
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FSV Mainz 0544.2%fair odds 2.26
Draw26.5%fair odds 3.77
SC Freiburg29.3%fair odds 3.41
Expected goals1.53 – 1.20total 2.73
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
SC Freiburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FSV Mainz 05 ↓ · SC Freiburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FSV Mainz 05 goals, columns SC Freiburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.93
- 1–09.3%10.73
- 2–19.2%10.93
- 2–07.6%13.14
- 1–27.2%13.88
- 0–17.2%13.89
- 0–07.1%13.99
- 2–25.5%18.17
- 0–24.7%21.22
- 3–14.7%21.45
Winning margin
8.9%
FSV Mainz 05 by 3+
fair 11.19
13.5%
FSV Mainz 05 by 2
fair 7.42
21.7%
FSV Mainz 05 by 1
fair 4.60
26.5%
Draw
fair 3.77
17.0%
SC Freiburg by 1
fair 5.89
8.4%
SC Freiburg by 2
fair 11.97
4.0%
SC Freiburg by 3+
fair 25.16
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
FSV Mainz 05 goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
SC Freiburg goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 win | 44.2% | 44.1% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 26.5% | 27.1% | -0.6 pp |
| SC Freiburg win | 29.3% | 28.8% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 48.9% | +2.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.4% | 53.4% | +2.0 pp |
| Expected goals FSV Mainz 05 | 1.53 | 1.48 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals SC Freiburg | 1.20 | 1.15 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FSV Mainz 05 win44.2%2.26
- Draw26.5%3.77
- SC Freiburg win29.3%3.41
- Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw70.7%1.41
- Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or SC Freiburg73.5%1.36
- Double chance SC Freiburg or draw55.8%1.79
- Draw no bet FSV Mainz 0560.1%1.66
- Draw no bet SC Freiburg39.9%2.51
Goals
- Over 0.592.9%1.08
- Over 1.576.3%1.31
- Over 2.551.4%1.95
- Over 3.529.3%3.42
- Over 4.514.2%7.05
- Under 1.523.7%4.22
- Under 2.548.6%2.06
- Under 3.570.7%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes55.4%1.80
- No44.6%2.24
- Yes and over 2.542.8%2.34
- FSV Mainz 05 win and yes21.3%4.70
- Draw and yes19.4%5.16
- SC Freiburg win and yes14.8%6.77
Team goals
- FSV Mainz 05 over 0.578.3%1.28
- FSV Mainz 05 over 1.545.2%2.21
- FSV Mainz 05 over 2.519.8%5.04
- SC Freiburg over 0.570.0%1.43
- SC Freiburg over 1.533.8%2.95
- SC Freiburg over 2.512.1%8.25
- FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet30.0%3.33
- SC Freiburg clean sheet21.7%4.61
- FSV Mainz 05 win to nil22.9%4.37
- SC Freiburg win to nil14.5%6.88
Handicap
- FSV Mainz 05 −1.522.4%4.46
- FSV Mainz 05 −2.58.9%11.19
- SC Freiburg +1.577.6%1.29
- SC Freiburg +2.591.1%1.10
- SC Freiburg −1.512.3%8.11
- FSV Mainz 05 +1.587.7%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored260
Favourite won56.9%
Avg chance given to result43.5%
1X2 Brier0.556
Over 2.5 called right61.2%
BTTS called right57.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 35 | 38.3% | 37.1% |
| 40–50% | 81 | 44.9% | 46.9% |
| 50–60% | 69 | 55.2% | 59.4% |
| 60–70% | 40 | 64.6% | 70.0% |
| 70–80% | 23 | 74.0% | 78.3% |
| 80%+ | 12 | 86.6% | 83.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 213 of 260 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5484 | 0.5475 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.9% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 58.2% | 56.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 213 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 260 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.