Bundesliga Gameweek 33 Sun, May 10 · 18:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05 10th · 37 pts · 32 played
1–3Full time
Union Berlin 13th · 33 pts · 32 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
FSV Mainz 0567.6%fair odds 1.48
Draw19.1%fair odds 5.23
Union Berlin13.3%fair odds 7.53
Expected goals2.29 – 0.93total 3.22
Likeliest score2–010.5%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

FSV Mainz 05

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Union Berlin

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

FSV Mainz 05 ↓ · Union Berlin →0123456+
04.53.31.70.50.10.00.0
18.78.93.91.20.30.10.0
210.59.74.51.40.30.10.0
38.07.43.41.10.20.00.0
44.64.32.00.60.10.00.0
52.12.00.90.30.10.00.0
6+1.21.10.50.20.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FSV Mainz 05 goals, columns Union Berlin goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 2–010.5%9.52
  • 2–19.7%10.27
  • 1–18.9%11.17
  • 1–08.7%11.47
  • 3–08.0%12.46
  • 3–17.4%13.44
  • 4–04.6%21.74
  • 2–24.5%22.16
  • 0–04.5%22.47
  • 4–14.3%23.46

Winning margin

24.8% FSV Mainz 05 by 3+ fair 4.04
20.2% FSV Mainz 05 by 2 fair 4.94
22.6% FSV Mainz 05 by 1 fair 4.43
19.1% Draw fair 5.23
8.9% Union Berlin by 1 fair 11.28
3.3% Union Berlin by 2 fair 30.22
1.1% Union Berlin by 3+ fair 90.60

Goal distribution

Total goals

4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+

FSV Mainz 05 goals

10%0
23%1
27%2
20%3
20%4+

Union Berlin goals

40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
FSV Mainz 05 win 67.6% 67.0% +0.6 pp
Draw 19.1% 19.6% -0.5 pp
Union Berlin win 13.3% 13.4% -0.1 pp
Over 2.5 62.4% 60.5% +1.9 pp
Both teams score 54.8% 53.5% +1.3 pp
Expected goals FSV Mainz 05 2.29 2.23 +0.06
Expected goals Union Berlin 0.93 0.90 +0.03

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • FSV Mainz 05 win67.6%1.48
  • Draw19.1%5.23
  • Union Berlin win13.3%7.53
  • Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw86.7%1.15
  • Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or Union Berlin80.9%1.24
  • Double chance Union Berlin or draw32.4%3.09
  • Draw no bet FSV Mainz 0583.6%1.20
  • Draw no bet Union Berlin16.4%6.09

Goals

  • Over 0.595.5%1.05
  • Over 1.583.6%1.20
  • Over 2.562.4%1.60
  • Over 3.540.2%2.49
  • Over 4.522.3%4.49
  • Under 1.516.4%6.09
  • Under 2.537.6%2.66
  • Under 3.559.8%1.67

Both teams to score

  • Yes54.8%1.83
  • No45.2%2.21
  • Yes and over 2.545.8%2.18
  • FSV Mainz 05 win and yes32.5%3.08
  • Draw and yes14.7%6.81
  • Union Berlin win and yes7.6%13.12

Team goals

  • FSV Mainz 05 over 0.589.9%1.11
  • FSV Mainz 05 over 1.566.7%1.50
  • FSV Mainz 05 over 2.540.2%2.49
  • Union Berlin over 0.560.4%1.66
  • Union Berlin over 1.523.7%4.21
  • Union Berlin over 2.56.7%14.85
  • FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet39.6%2.53
  • Union Berlin clean sheet10.1%9.89
  • FSV Mainz 05 win to nil35.1%2.85
  • Union Berlin win to nil5.7%17.68

Handicap

  • FSV Mainz 05 −1.545.0%2.22
  • FSV Mainz 05 −2.524.8%4.04
  • Union Berlin +1.555.0%1.82
  • Union Berlin +2.575.2%1.33
  • Union Berlin −1.54.4%22.66
  • FSV Mainz 05 +1.595.6%1.05

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored296 Favourite won55.7% Avg chance given to result43.2% 1X2 Brier0.564 Over 2.5 called right62.2% BTTS called right60.1%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3838.3%34.2%
40–50%9545.1%45.3%
50–60%7555.1%60.0%
60–70%4664.6%67.4%
70–80%2974.5%79.3%
80%+1387.2%76.9%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 240 of 296 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.56280.5582
Avg chance given to result43.3%42.7%
Favourite won56.7%55.4%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 240 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 296 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.