FSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
FSV Mainz 05
10th · 37 pts · 32 played
WLDLW
1–3Full time
Union Berlin
13th · 33 pts · 32 played
DLLLD
Our take
FSV Mainz 05 were clear favourites.
FSV Mainz 05 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 35). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FSV Mainz 05. FSV Mainz 05 had 7.2 days of rest, Union Berlin 8.2 and had to travel 455 km.
Away travel455 kmRest days7.2 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
FSV Mainz 0568%
Draw19%
Union Berlin13%
FSV Mainz 0556%
Draw24%
Union Berlin20%
FSV Mainz 0567%
Draw19%
Union Berlin13%
FSV Mainz 0560%
Draw22%
Union Berlin18%
FSV Mainz 0567%
Draw20%
Union Berlin13%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mainz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Exner
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 29
Team strength
FSV Mainz 05Union Berlin
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
68
AttackIn forecast
42
56
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FSV Mainz 05Union Berlin
1.28
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.16
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.78
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
69%
Scored inContext
75%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
11.34
ShotsContext
11.88
4.03
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.47
34%
On target shareContext
29%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
74%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.64
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.72
Shots allowedContext
12.47
4.81
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.41
3.94
BlocksContext
3.88
3.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.04
66%
Save rateContext
64%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
359
PassesContext
322
271
Accurate passesContext
232
76%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.34
FoulsContext
12.03
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.59
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.96
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.70
ShotsContext
10.20
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
37%
On target shareContext
33%
9.56
Shots in the boxContext
7.38
73%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.25
10.60
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.90
BlocksContext
4.71
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
63%
Save rateContext
66%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
346
PassesContext
330
270
Accurate passesContext
237
78%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.71
10.40
FoulsContext
11.50
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
7.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FSV Mainz 05
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km828 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union Berlin
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel455 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FSV Mainz 05 |
Union Berlin |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 3 May | 8.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 455 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 828 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
27R. Zentner(G)
31D. Kohr
4S. Posch
21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene
10N. Amiri
6K. Sano
8P. Nebel
19A. Caci
23S. Becker
20P. Tietz
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
25C. Klaus(G)
15T. Rothe
4Diogo Leite
5D. Doekhi
28C. Trimmel
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
9Livan Burcu
10Ilyas Ansah
7O. Burke
23A. Ilić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FSV Mainz 05
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Union Berlin
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FSV Mainz 05+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Union Berlin-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
FSV Mainz 05 · Home
1.06points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-7
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.38
Union Berlin · Away
0.88points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-10
- Scored
- 0.94
- Conceded
- 1.94
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FSV Mainz 05 | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 3–4 HD 2–2 A | L 0–4 AD 2–2 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | L 1–3 AL 2–4 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | L 1–3 AW 3–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H |
| Points | 36 of 93 · 1.16 per game | 32 of 93 · 1.03 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
0 FSV Mainz 05 wins4 draws5 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.89
Over 2.567%
Both scored89%
Clean sheets11% · 11%
- 10 Jan 2026Union Berlin2–2FSV Mainz 05
- 19 Jan 2025Union Berlin2–1FSV Mainz 05
- 24 Aug 2024FSV Mainz 051–1Union Berlin
- 7 Feb 2024FSV Mainz 051–1Union Berlin
- 20 Aug 2023Union Berlin4–1FSV Mainz 05
- 4 Feb 2023Union Berlin2–1FSV Mainz 05
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FSV Mainz 05 | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.28 | 1.16 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.78 | |
| Match goals | 2.84 | 2.94 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 59% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 63% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 25% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.90 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FSV Mainz 05 | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.55 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.45 | 4.65 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 9.20 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 17/29 | 65% 20/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 14/29 | 42% 13/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 34% 10/29 | 26% 8/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.16 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.03 | 1.97 | |
| Match total | 4.19 | 4.19 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 20/32 | 56% 18/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 12/32 | 44% 14/32 | |
| FSV Mainz 05 | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 9.20 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.70 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Exner Germany · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.62league 3.70
Red cards0.21league 0.17
Cards 5+48%league 37%
Fouls22.2league 20.1
Penalties0.38league 0.35
Home wins41%league 44%
FSV Mainz 053 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.3.7 · 3.7
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds1
- L18 Oct 25H · Bayer Leverkusen3–45
- L19 Jan 25A · Union Berlin1–22
- L28 Sep 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim0–24
Union Berlin4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D8 Nov 25H · Bayern München2–22
- D15 Mar 25H · Bayern München1–11
- W19 Jan 25H · FSV Mainz 052–12
- L21 Dec 24A · Werder Bremen1–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FSV Mainz 0532 games · scored 41 · conceded 50
7
10
0-15
5
6
16-30
9
6
31-45
4
7
46-60
7
3
61-75
9
18
76-90
Union Berlin32 games · scored 37 · conceded 57
2
4
0-15
6
5
16-30
4
18
31-45
5
10
46-60
6
6
61-75
14
14
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
6
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 9 · conceded 20
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
