Fulham vs Brighton – 24 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 23 Sat, Jan 24 · 15:00 Craven Cottage, London

Fulham 11th · 31 pts · 22 played WDDWL

2–1Full time

Brighton 12th · 30 pts · 22 played LDWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 69). Fulham had 7 days of rest, Brighton 4.8 and had to travel 72 km.

Away travel72 kmRest days7 · 4.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Fulham39%

Draw26%

Brighton36%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.42

Fulham38%

Draw27%

Brighton34%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.30

Fulham39%

Draw26%

Brighton35%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.40

Fulham31%

Draw26%

Brighton43%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.59

Fulham38%

Draw27%

Brighton35%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.31

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 200

Team strength

Fulham

Brighton

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 77

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

66 AttackIn forecast 87

68 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fulham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fulham

Brighton

1.36 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.45

1.41 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.32

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

82% Scored inContext 82%

23% Clean sheetsContext 23%

11.77 ShotsContext 13.36

3.81 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.45

31% On target shareContext 33%

7.95 Shots in the boxContext 8.41

65% Box shareContext 65%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.10 OffsidesContext 2.29

11.45 Shots allowedContext 12.64

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.14

3.36 BlocksContext 3.65

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.82

71% Save rateContext 68%

51% PossessionIn forecast 53%

473 PassesContext 468

396 Accurate passesContext 394

84% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.87

11.09 FoulsContext 12.05

9.55 Fouls sufferedContext 10.18

2.27 Yellow cardsContext 2.59

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.58

1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.76

+0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

90% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.60 ShotsContext 14.30

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

33% On target shareContext 29%

8.78 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

66% Box shareContext 69%

14% ConversionContext 9%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.11

11.70 Shots allowedContext 15.10

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

3.40 BlocksContext 4.67

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

73% Save rateContext 70%

54% PossessionIn forecast 55%

546 PassesContext 490

466 Accurate passesContext 418

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.88

8.70 FoulsContext 12.40

7.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fulham

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km544 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brighton

Rest4.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel72 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fulham	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Jan	4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 19 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	72 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	544 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 5	1 / 1 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fulham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Leno(G)

33A. Robinson 15Jorge Cuenca 5J. Andersen 21T. Castagne

16S. Berge 17A. Iwobi

22Kevin 32E. Smith Rowe 8H. Wilson

7R. Jiménez

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1B. Verbruggen(G)

21O. Boscagli 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 24F. Kadıoğlu

30P. Groß 17C. Baleba 26Y. Ayari

22K. Mitoma 18D. Welbeck 25D. Gómez

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fulham Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brighton Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fulham-0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Brighton+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Fulham · Home 1.82points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 6-2-3
Scored: 1.73
Conceded: 1.18

Brighton · Away 0.91points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 2-4-5
Scored: 1.18
Conceded: 1.55

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Fulham	Brighton
Leeds	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H	W 3–0 H
Chelsea	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A	W 3–1 A
Liverpool	D 2–2 H	L 0–2 A
Crystal Palace	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H	D 0–0 A
West Ham	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H
Nottingham Forest	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 A
Burnley	W 3–2 A	W 2–0 H
Manchester City	L 4–5 H	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Tottenham	W 2–1 A	D 2–2 H
Sunderland	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 H
Everton	L 0–2 A	L 0–2 A
Wolves	W 3–0 H	D 1–1 A
Newcastle	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
Arsenal	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 A
Bournemouth	L 1–3 A	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Aston Villa	L 1–3 A	L 3–4 H
Brentford	W 3–1 H	W 2–1 H
Manchester United	D 1–1 H	L 2–4 A
Points	30 of 63 · 1.43 per game	29 of 63 · 1.38 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

4 Fulham wins4 draws1 Brighton wins

Goals per game1.33 – 0.67 Over 2.544% Both scored56% Clean sheets44% · 22%

16 Aug 2025Brighton1–1Fulham
8 Mar 2025Brighton2–1Fulham
5 Dec 2024Fulham3–1Brighton
2 Mar 2024Fulham3–0Brighton
29 Oct 2023Brighton1–1Fulham
18 Feb 2023Brighton0–1Fulham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fulham	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.36	1.45
Conceded per game	1.41	1.32
Match goals	2.77	2.77	2.91
Over 1.5	73%	91%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	27%	23%
Both teams scored	59%	68%	59%
Clean sheets	23%	23%
Failed to score	18%	18%
Games	22	22

	Fulham	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.30
Conceded per game	1.50	1.30
Match goals	3.20	2.60	2.91
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	56%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fulham	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.45	4.95
Corners conceded	5.77	4.68
Match total	10.22	9.63	9.93
Over 8.5	77% 17/22	59% 13/22
Over 9.5	64% 14/22	55% 12/22
Over 10.5	41% 9/22	45% 10/22
Cards
Cards	2.27	2.59
Opponent cards	1.59	2.18
Match total	3.86	4.77	3.89
Over 3.5	59% 13/22	77% 17/22
Over 4.5	45% 10/22	50% 11/22

	Fulham	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	4.50
Corners conceded	6.00	5.20
Match total	9.60	9.70	9.93
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.50
Opponent cards	1.50	2.40
Match total	4.00	4.90	3.89
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.61league 3.76

Red cards0.14league 0.10

Cards 5+34%league 39%

Fouls22.4league 21.3

Penalties0.26league 0.21

Home wins42%league 45%

Fulham8 with this referee

Record4-1-3 Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 1

W13 Dec 25A · Burnley3–22
W20 Sep 25H · Brentford3–14
L14 Apr 25A · Bournemouth0–12
L2 Apr 24A · Nottingham Forest1–30
W24 Feb 24A · Manchester United2–15

Brighton10 with this referee

Record5-3-2 Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.8 Pens for · against3 · 0 Reds1

W30 Nov 25A · Nottingham Forest2–01
W1 Nov 25H · Leeds3–00
W10 May 25A · Wolves2–01
W25 Feb 25H · Bournemouth2–12
L15 Dec 24H · Crystal Palace1–31

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.