Fulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fulham were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Fulham had 6 days of rest, Everton 7 and had to travel 286 km.
Away travel286 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Fulham46%
Draw25%
Everton28%
Fulham44%
Draw27%
Everton29%
Fulham46%
Draw26%
Everton28%
Fulham39%
Draw26%
Everton35%
Fulham45%
Draw26%
Everton28%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeStuart Attwell
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 132
Team strength
Fulham
Everton
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
66
AttackIn forecast
61
68
DefenceIn forecast
66
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEverton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FulhamEverton
1.42
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.08
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
83%
Scored inContext
71%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
11.88
ShotsContext
10.58
3.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.17
32%
On target shareContext
30%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
7.22
64%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.05
OffsidesContext
2.07
11.58
Shots allowedContext
13.63
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.26
3.38
BlocksContext
4.54
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
69%
Save rateContext
69%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
478
PassesContext
378
402
Accurate passesContext
300
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.96
FoulsContext
10.50
9.25
Fouls sufferedContext
11.79
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
1.79
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.80
ShotsContext
10.90
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
33%
On target shareContext
30%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
61%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.10
Shots allowedContext
15.10
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.20
BlocksContext
4.20
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
69%
Save rateContext
74%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
529
PassesContext
391
450
Accurate passesContext
311
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.97
9.20
FoulsContext
10.60
6.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fulham
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Everton
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel286 km691 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fulham |
Everton |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 524 km | 691 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
30K. Sessegnon
15Jorge Cuenca
5J. Andersen
21T. Castagne
16S. Berge
17A. Iwobi
19S. Chukwueze
32E. Smith Rowe
8H. Wilson
7R. Jiménez
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
5M. Keane
6J. Tarkowski
15J. O'Brien
27I. Gueye
37J. Garner
45H. Armstrong
22K. Dewsbury-Hall
10I. Ndiaye
11T. Barry
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fulham
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Everton
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fulham+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Everton+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Fulham · Home
1.92points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-3
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.17
Everton · Away
1.50points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-4
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 0.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Fulham | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Brighton | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Leeds | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Liverpool | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Crystal Palace | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| West Ham | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Burnley | W 3–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Manchester City | L 4–5 H | L 0–2 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Sunderland | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Wolves | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 A | L 1–4 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Bournemouth | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Brentford | W 3–1 H | L 2–4 H |
| Points | 34 of 69 · 1.48 per game | 31 of 69 · 1.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Fulham wins3 draws3 Everton wins
Goals per game1.11 – 1.11
Over 2.533%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets44% · 33%
- 8 Nov 2025Everton2–0Fulham
- 10 May 2025Fulham1–3Everton
- 26 Oct 2024Everton1–1Fulham
- 30 Jan 2024Fulham0–0Everton
- 12 Aug 2023Everton0–1Fulham
- 15 Apr 2023Everton1–3Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fulham | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.42 | 1.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 2.21 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 29% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 42% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 29% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Fulham | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.10 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fulham | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 4.08 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 5.21 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 9.29 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 79% 19/24 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 16/24 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 10/24 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 1.92 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.58 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 3.67 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 13/24 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 10/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Fulham | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.30 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.20 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stuart Attwell 132 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.95league 3.71
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+44%league 38%
Fouls20.9league 21.3
Penalties0.20league 0.20
Home wins49%league 45%
Fulham10 with this referee
Record4-2-4
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W29 Nov 25A · Tottenham2–12
- W4 Nov 24H · Brentford2–12
- D27 Apr 24H · Crystal Palace1–10
- W14 Apr 24A · West Ham2–02
- L3 Dec 23A · Liverpool3–40
Everton17 with this referee
Record5-2-10
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W24 Aug 25H · Brighton2–04
- D8 Mar 25A · Wolves1–12
- D9 Nov 24A · West Ham0–02
- L31 Aug 24H · Bournemouth2–32
- W11 May 24H · Sheffield Utd1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fulham24 games · scored 34 · conceded 35
5
0-15
1
7
16-30
6
6
31-45
5
11
46-60
6
1
61-75
11
10
76-90
Everton24 games · scored 26 · conceded 27
3
3
0-15
5
7
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
9
4
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
9
4
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
