Fulham vs Liverpool – 4 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 20 Sun, Jan 4 · 15:15 Craven Cottage, London

Fulham 13th · 27 pts · 19 played LWWWD

2–2Full time

Liverpool 4th · 33 pts · 19 played DWWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were slight favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 68). Absences weigh more on Fulham. Fulham had 2.9 days of rest, Liverpool 2.9 and had to travel 286 km.

Away travel286 kmRest days2.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d3 · 2

Fulham26%

Draw25%

Liverpool49%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.76

Fulham28%

Draw26%

Liverpool46%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.55

Fulham27%

Draw25%

Liverpool48%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.73

Fulham20%

Draw23%

Liverpool57%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.97

Fulham26%

Draw26%

Liverpool47%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.58

Over 2.5 57% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeCraig Pawson

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 136

Team strength

Fulham

Liverpool

68 L90 StrengthIn forecast 87

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 84

66 AttackIn forecast 85

68 DefenceIn forecast 84

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fulham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fulham

Liverpool

1.37 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.58

1.42 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.37

1.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

84% Scored inContext 84%

26% Clean sheetsContext 32%

11.95 ShotsContext 15.32

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.32

32% On target shareContext 28%

8.22 Shots in the boxContext 10.05

66% Box shareContext 66%

12% ConversionContext 10%

2.12 OffsidesContext 2.75

11.26 Shots allowedContext 11.00

3.95 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.24

3.53 BlocksContext 3.28

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71

71% Save rateContext 64%

52% PossessionIn forecast 62%

468 PassesContext 547

391 Accurate passesContext 471

84% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.94

11.11 FoulsContext 9.74

10.21 Fouls sufferedContext 10.68

2.16 Yellow cardsContext 1.74

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.69

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

+0.38 Goals minus xGContext -0.29

90% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.30 ShotsContext 16.60

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

33% On target shareContext 30%

9.56 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

66% Box shareContext 66%

13% ConversionContext 8%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.63

10.90 Shots allowedContext 10.20

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.80 BlocksContext 3.30

2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

75% Save rateContext 67%

54% PossessionIn forecast 62%

509 PassesContext 576

429 Accurate passesContext 503

84% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.98

8.40 FoulsContext 9.20

9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fulham

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Liverpool

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel286 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fulham	Liverpool
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Jan	2.9Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3.2	4.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fulham Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1B. Leno(G)

15Jorge Cuenca 5J. Andersen 31I. Diop

33A. Robinson 10T. Cairney 20S. Lukić 21T. Castagne

32E. Smith Rowe 8H. Wilson

7R. Jiménez

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 12C. Bradley

10A. Mac Allister 38R. Gravenberch

17C. Jones 7F. Wirtz 8D. Szoboszlai

18C. Gakpo

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fulham Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Liverpool Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fulham-1.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Liverpool+1.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Fulham · Home 1.78points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 5-1-3
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 1.11

Liverpool · Away 1.44points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 4-1-4
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 1.78

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Fulham	Liverpool
Crystal Palace	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H	L 1–2 A
West Ham	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 A
Nottingham Forest	W 1–0 H	L 0–3 H
Burnley	W 3–2 A	W 1–0 A
Manchester City	L 4–5 H	L 0–3 A
Tottenham	W 2–1 A	W 2–1 A
Sunderland	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
Everton	L 0–2 A	W 2–1 H
Wolves	W 3–0 H	W 2–1 H
Newcastle	L 1–2 A	W 3–2 A
Arsenal	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 H
Bournemouth	L 1–3 A	W 4–2 H
Aston Villa	L 1–3 A	W 2–0 H
Brentford	W 3–1 H	L 2–3 A
Leeds	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 HD 3–3 A
Chelsea	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 A
Manchester United	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 H
Brighton	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 H
Points	27 of 57 · 1.42 per game	33 of 57 · 1.74 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Fulham wins3 draws3 Liverpool wins

Goals per game1.63 – 1.88 Over 2.563% Both scored75% Clean sheets13% · 13%

6 Apr 2025Fulham3–2Liverpool
14 Dec 2024Liverpool2–2Fulham
21 Apr 2024Fulham1–3Liverpool
3 Dec 2023Liverpool4–3Fulham
3 May 2023Liverpool1–0Fulham
6 Aug 2022Fulham2–2Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fulham	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	1.37	1.58
Conceded per game	1.42	1.37
Match goals	2.79	2.95	2.99
Over 1.5	74%	84%
Over 2.5	47%	63%	57%
Over 3.5	26%	21%
Both teams scored	58%	58%	59%
Clean sheets	26%	32%
Failed to score	16%	16%
Games	19	19

	Fulham	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.40
Conceded per game	1.30	1.20
Match goals	3.00	2.60	2.99
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	57%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	59%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fulham	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	4.74	5.26
Corners conceded	5.32	4.63
Match total	10.06	9.89	9.88
Over 8.5	74% 14/19	74% 14/19
Over 9.5	58% 11/19	47% 9/19
Over 10.5	37% 7/19	37% 7/19
Cards
Cards	2.16	1.74
Opponent cards	1.53	2.16
Match total	3.69	3.90	3.80
Over 3.5	58% 11/19	53% 10/19
Over 4.5	42% 8/19	37% 7/19

	Fulham	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	5.70
Corners conceded	5.20	4.20
Match total	10.10	9.90	9.88
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.30
Opponent cards	1.90	2.10
Match total	4.20	3.40	3.80
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Craig Pawson 136 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.92league 3.67

Red cards0.10league 0.10

Cards 5+38%league 37%

Fouls22.7league 21.3

Penalties0.21league 0.20

Home wins42%league 46%

Fulham7 with this referee

Record1-2-4 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.1 Pens for · against1 · 0

L2 Dec 25H · Manchester City4–50
W13 Sep 25H · Leeds1–01
L14 Jan 25A · West Ham2–33
L21 Apr 24H · Liverpool1–33
L15 May 21A · Southampton1–31

Liverpool13 with this referee

Record11-1-1 Cards · opp.0.9 · 1.9 Pens for · against2 · 0

W13 Dec 25H · Brighton2–01
W21 Apr 24A · Fulham3–10
W28 Feb 24H · Southampton3–00
W21 Oct 23H · Everton2–01
W15 May 23A · Leicester3–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.