Fulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester City were slight favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 66). Fulham had 3 days of rest, Manchester City 3.2 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days3 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Fulham25%
Draw24%
Manchester City51%
Fulham25%
Draw26%
Manchester City49%
Fulham25%
Draw24%
Manchester City51%
Fulham19%
Draw22%
Manchester City59%
Fulham25%
Draw26%
Manchester City49%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeCraig Pawson
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 132
Team strength
Fulham
Manchester City
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
88
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
91
66
AttackIn forecast
92
68
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FulhamManchester City
1.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.08
1.31
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.92
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
77%
Scored inContext
85%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
11.69
ShotsContext
14.38
3.92
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.38
31%
On target shareContext
37%
7.62
Shots in the boxContext
10.46
64%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
10.92
Shots allowedContext
9.15
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.23
3.15
BlocksContext
2.69
2.92
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.31
70%
Save rateContext
71%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
429
PassesContext
548
355
Accurate passesContext
482
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.06
12.77
FoulsContext
9.85
11.31
Fouls sufferedContext
11.46
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.92
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.10
ShotsContext
15.50
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
31%
On target shareContext
42%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.70
61%
Box shareContext
74%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.90
Shots allowedContext
8.10
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
3.30
BlocksContext
2.60
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
68%
Save rateContext
73%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
432
PassesContext
577
357
Accurate passesContext
516
83%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.09
12.20
FoulsContext
10.40
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fulham
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Manchester City
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel262 km342 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fulham |
Manchester City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Premier League 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 342 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
30K. Sessegnon
3C. Bassey
5J. Andersen
2K. Tete
16S. Berge
20S. Lukić
17A. Iwobi
32E. Smith Rowe
8H. Wilson
7R. Jiménez
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
24J. Gvardiol
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
4T. Reijnders
14Nico González
20Bernardo Silva
11J. Doku
9E. Haaland
47P. Foden
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fulham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester City
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fulham-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Manchester City+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Fulham · Home
2.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Manchester City · Away
1.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 11 this season
| Opponent | Fulham | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Everton | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Wolves | W 3–0 H | W 4–0 A |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bournemouth | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Aston Villa | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Brentford | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Leeds | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Manchester United | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Brighton | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 14 of 33 · 1.27 per game | 19 of 33 · 1.73 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Fulham wins0 draws8 Manchester City wins
Goals per game0.63 – 2.88
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 25 May 2025Fulham0–2Manchester City
- 5 Oct 2024Manchester City3–2Fulham
- 11 May 2024Fulham0–4Manchester City
- 2 Sep 2023Manchester City5–1Fulham
- 30 Apr 2023Fulham1–2Manchester City
- 5 Nov 2022Manchester City2–1Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fulham | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.15 | 2.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.31 | 0.92 | |
| Match goals | 2.46 | 3.00 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 62% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 46% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 15% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Fulham | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.00 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fulham | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.08 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.31 | 4.15 | |
| Match total | 10.31 | 10.23 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 9/13 | 77% 10/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 69% 9/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 6/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.92 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.69 | 1.92 | |
| Match total | 3.69 | 3.84 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 8/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 6/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Fulham | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 6.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 10.30 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.30 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Craig Pawson 132 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.95league 3.72
Red cards0.11league 0.12
Cards 5+39%league 42%
Fouls22.7league 22.1
Penalties0.22league 0.20
Home wins42%league 51%
Fulham6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W13 Sep 25H · Leeds1–01
- L14 Jan 25A · West Ham2–33
- L21 Apr 24H · Liverpool1–33
- L15 May 21A · Southampton1–31
- D18 Apr 21A · Arsenal1–13
Manchester City9 with this referee
Record7-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against3 · 2
- W22 Apr 25H · Aston Villa2–14
- W4 May 24H · Wolves5–10
- W4 Nov 23H · Bournemouth6–10
- L30 Sep 23A · Wolves1–24
- W11 Aug 23A · Burnley3–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fulham13 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
7
46-60
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
Manchester City13 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
7
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2
0-15
6
3
16-30
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
