Fulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fulham were slight favourites.
Fulham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 55). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for West Ham. Fulham had 3.2 days of rest, West Ham 4.2 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days3.2 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Fulham51%
Draw24%
West Ham25%
Fulham53%
Draw25%
West Ham22%
Fulham52%
Draw24%
West Ham25%
Fulham43%
Draw25%
West Ham32%
Fulham50%
Draw25%
West Ham26%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeMatt Donohue
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 138
Team strength
Fulham
West Ham
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
66
AttackIn forecast
68
68
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWest Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FulhamWest Ham
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.21
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.93
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
82%
Scored inContext
68%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
12.21
ShotsContext
10.54
3.85
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.96
30%
On target shareContext
34%
8.41
Shots in the boxContext
7.32
67%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.92
OffsidesContext
1.92
11.86
Shots allowedContext
14.82
3.93
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.36
3.61
BlocksContext
4.58
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.57
67%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
475
PassesContext
375
398
Accurate passesContext
296
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.00
FoulsContext
11.00
9.36
Fouls sufferedContext
11.07
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
1.64
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
80%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.40
ShotsContext
12.40
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
31%
On target shareContext
32%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
67%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
1.56
OffsidesContext
1.25
12.50
Shots allowedContext
13.10
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.50
BlocksContext
4.00
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
60%
Save rateContext
66%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
503
PassesContext
428
428
Accurate passesContext
342
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.60
FoulsContext
12.30
7.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fulham
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km774 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
West Ham
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fulham |
West Ham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 774 km | 573 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10.8 | 10 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
33A. Robinson
3C. Bassey
31I. Diop
2K. Tete
10T. Cairney
16S. Berge
17A. Iwobi
24J. King
19S. Chukwueze
7R. Jiménez
West Ham
Confirmed XI
1M. Hermansen(G)
12E. Diouf
4A. Disasi
25J. Todibo
29A. Wan-Bissaka
7C. Summerville
18Mateus Fernandes
28T. Souček
20J. Bowen
9C. Wilson
11V. Castellanos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fulham
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
West Ham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fulham-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- West Ham+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Fulham · Home
1.86points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-4
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 1.21
West Ham · Away
0.93points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-7
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.93
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Fulham | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Sunderland | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H | W 3–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Manchester City | L 0–3 AL 4–5 H | L 0–3 A |
| Everton | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Manchester United | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Brighton | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Leeds | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | L 2–3 AL 1–5 H |
| Liverpool | D 2–2 H | L 2–5 AL 0–2 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Burnley | W 3–2 A | W 2–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Wolves | W 3–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Bournemouth | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–3 A | L 2–3 H |
| Brentford | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 37 of 81 · 1.37 per game | 25 of 81 · 0.93 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Fulham wins2 draws4 West Ham wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets44% · 33%
- 27 Dec 2025West Ham0–1Fulham
- 14 Jan 2025West Ham3–2Fulham
- 14 Sep 2024Fulham1–1West Ham
- 14 Apr 2024West Ham0–2Fulham
- 10 Dec 2023Fulham5–0West Ham
- 8 Apr 2023Fulham0–1West Ham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fulham | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.21 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.93 | |
| Match goals | 2.93 | 3.14 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 64% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 61% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 32% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Fulham | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.30 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fulham | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.64 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.71 | 6.30 | |
| Match total | 10.35 | 11.63 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 79% 22/28 | 78% 21/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 68% 19/28 | 70% 19/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 12/28 | 67% 18/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.07 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.79 | 1.93 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 3.68 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 16/28 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 12/28 | 29% 8/28 | |
| Fulham | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 11.60 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.30 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matt Donohue 138 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.21league 3.76
Red cards0.15league 0.12
Cards 5+48%league 39%
Fouls23.1league 21.5
Penalties0.10league 0.21
Home wins46%league 43%
Fulham2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W19 May 24A · Luton4–24
- W8 Feb 22H · Millwall3–01
West HamNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fulham28 games · scored 40 · conceded 42
6
0-15
2
9
16-30
7
7
31-45
6
11
46-60
7
3
61-75
12
12
76-90
West Ham28 games · scored 34 · conceded 54
9
8
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
10
31-45
3
9
46-60
3
12
61-75
9
12
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
8
5
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
5
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
