Genoa vs Juventus – 28 Oct 2026

Serie A Gameweek 9 Wed, Oct 28 · 19:45 Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova

Genoa 17th · 4 pts · 7 played LDLWL

VS— Compare

Juventus 8th · 11 pts · 7 played DLWDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Juventus are slight favourites.

Juventus are the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 29). Juventus come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Genoa have 3.2 days of rest, Juventus 3.1 and have to travel 124 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel124 kmRest days3.2 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 4

Genoa25%

Draw28%

Juventus46%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.42

Genoa23%

Draw25%

Juventus52%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.70

Genoa25%

Draw28%

Juventus46%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.42

Genoa20%

Draw26%

Juventus54%

Expected goals 0.88 – 1.59

Genoa23%

Draw26%

Juventus50%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.61

Over 2.5 43% Both score 48% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 36 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Genova)

13°CClear

Precipitation 7%
Wind 7 km/h
Humidity 91%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Genoa

Juventus

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

23 AttackIn forecast 57

44 DefenceIn forecast 76

24 Form indexContext 74

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genoa

Attack−21%

Defense risk+9%

Juventus

Attack+2%

Defense risk−22%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Genoa

Juventus

0.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.50

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

57% Scored inContext 86%

0% Clean sheetsContext 43%

11.14 ShotsContext 16.71

2.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.86

26% On target shareContext 35%

7.57 Shots in the boxContext 8.86

68% Box shareContext 53%

6% ConversionContext 8%

2.29 OffsidesContext 3.00

15.00 Shots allowedContext 7.29

4.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.71

6.17 BlocksContext 1.83

2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

61% Save rateContext 67%

45% PossessionIn forecast 58%

380 PassesContext 547

306 Accurate passesContext 480

81% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.56 Team ratingContext 6.77

9.43 FoulsContext 12.57

11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

2.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.29

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

0.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.61

-0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.30

50% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.60 ShotsContext 16.70

2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

25% On target shareContext 35%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

68% Box shareContext 60%

6% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.75

13.40 Shots allowedContext 8.20

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

5.38 BlocksContext 1.89

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.13

60% Save rateContext 68%

48% PossessionIn forecast 57%

395 PassesContext 532

322 Accurate passesContext 466

82% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.62 Team ratingContext 6.85

9.40 FoulsContext 12.60

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genoa LDLWL

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km804 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

L17 OctA · AS Roma0–20.5 xPts
W10 OctH · Fiorentina2–11.3 xPts
L20 SepA · Parma1–21.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Frosinone1–11.6 xPts
L4 SepH · Como1–41.0 xPts

Juventus WWDWL

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel124 km4,716 km in 14d

Schedule load53%High

Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

L18 OctH · Lazio0–32.1 xPts
W15 OctA · Celta Vigo2–11.6 xPts
D11 OctA · Cagliari1–11.7 xPts
W20 SepH · Atalanta2–01.9 xPts
W17 SepH · NEC Nijmegen5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genoa	Juventus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	High · 53
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	Yes
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Serie A 2026-2027, 25 Oct	3.1Serie A 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	124 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	804 km	4,716 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	2 / 4 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Genoa Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs AS Roma (A) 0–2, 17 Oct

1J. Bijlow(G)

22J. Vásquez 5L. Østigård 27A. Marcandalli

31D. Puczka 32M. Frendrup 71S. Wiafe 77M. Ellertsson

92S. El Shaarawy 10J. Messias

18M. Osmajić

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Juventus Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Lazio (H) 0–3, 18 Oct

25G. Vicario(G)

2M. Çelik 26J. Lucumí 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu

29P. Sarr 12Douglas Luiz

17Kerim Alajbegović 22W. McKennie 31N. González

9R. Kolo Muani

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genoa

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes 1 without recent minutes (no impact): L. Venturino

Juventus No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Genoa+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Juventus+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Genoa · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Juventus · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Genoa	Juventus
Parma	L 1–2 A	W 2–0 H
Frosinone	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 A
Lazio	L 0–1 A	L 0–3 H
Points	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Genoa wins2 draws5 Juventus wins

Goals per game0.38 – 1.38 Over 2.525% Both scored25% Clean sheets13% · 75%

6 Apr 2026Juventus2–0Genoa
31 Aug 2025Genoa0–1Juventus
29 Mar 2025Juventus1–0Genoa
28 Sep 2024Genoa0–3Juventus
17 Mar 2024Juventus0–0Genoa
15 Dec 2023Genoa1–1Juventus

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Genoa	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	0.71	1.29
Conceded per game	1.86	1.14
Match goals	2.57	2.43	2.41
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	43%	29%	43%
Over 3.5	14%	14%
Both teams scored	57%	43%	48%
Clean sheets	0%	43%
Failed to score	43%	14%
Games	7	7

	Genoa	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	1.80
Conceded per game	1.60	1.10
Match goals	2.20	2.90	2.41
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	43%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	48%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genoa	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	4.43	8.00
Corners conceded	4.57	3.14
Match total	9.00	11.14	9.38
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	86% 6/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	71% 5/7
Over 10.5	14% 1/7	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.29
Opponent cards	1.86	2.29
Match total	4.86	3.58	3.43
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	14% 1/7

	Genoa	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	7.67
Corners conceded	4.10	3.22
Match total	8.50	10.89	9.38
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.40
Opponent cards	1.80	2.00
Match total	4.10	3.40	3.43
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.