AS Roma vs Cagliari – 27 Oct 2026

Serie A Gameweek 9 Tue, Oct 27 · 19:45 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

AS Roma 3rd · 17 pts · 7 played WWDDW

VS— Compare

Cagliari 7th · 13 pts · 7 played WWWDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma are clear favourites.

AS Roma are the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 33). AS Roma come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. AS Roma have 3.2 days of rest, Cagliari 3.3 and have to travel 412 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel412 kmRest days3.2 · 3.3Matches / 14d4 · 2

AS Roma70%

Draw18%

Cagliari12%

Expected goals 2.32 – 0.85

AS Roma70%

Draw19%

Cagliari11%

Expected goals 2.24 – 0.80

AS Roma70%

Draw19%

Cagliari12%

Expected goals 2.31 – 0.85

AS Roma63%

Draw21%

Cagliari16%

Expected goals 2.07 – 0.95

AS Roma75%

Draw16%

Cagliari10%

Expected goals 2.66 – 0.89

Over 2.5 61% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 36 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

14°CClear

Precipitation 12%
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 87%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

AS Roma

Cagliari

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 33

72 AttackIn forecast 31

75 DefenceIn forecast 31

68 Form indexContext 72

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AS Roma

Attack+15%

Defense risk−16%

Cagliari

Attack−21%

Defense risk+26%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

AS Roma

Cagliari

2.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.86

0.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

2.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.95

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

86% Scored inContext 71%

71% Clean sheetsContext 43%

18.14 ShotsContext 10.57

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

33% On target shareContext 38%

12.86 Shots in the boxContext 6.57

70% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 8%

3.57 OffsidesContext 3.00

10.29 Shots allowedContext 19.57

3.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.29

2.60 BlocksContext 4.86

2.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.29

82% Save rateContext 81%

56% PossessionIn forecast 41%

526 PassesContext 408

447 Accurate passesContext 345

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.14 Team ratingContext 6.98

11.86 FoulsContext 10.43

8.57 Fouls sufferedContext 8.57

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.29

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

2.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.82

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

90% Scored inContext 70%

60% Clean sheetsContext 30%

16.80 ShotsContext 13.40

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.22

35% On target shareContext 35%

11.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

70% Box shareContext 61%

13% ConversionContext 8%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.75

10.70 Shots allowedContext 17.10

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

2.57 BlocksContext 4.10

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

76% Save rateContext 78%

57% PossessionIn forecast 45%

542 PassesContext 429

466 Accurate passesContext 365

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.92

12.70 FoulsContext 10.00

9.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AS Roma WDDLW

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel0 km373 km in 14d

Schedule load43%High

Form 68 · 8 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected

W17 OctH · Genoa2–02.3 xPts
L14 OctH · Real Madrid3–41.2 xPts
D11 OctA · Como0–01.4 xPts
D19 SepH · Inter2–21.6 xPts
W14 SepA · Torino2–02.1 xPts

Cagliari WWWDL

Rest3.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel412 km1,412 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

Form 72 · 10 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · +3.8 vs expected

L19 OctA · Monza0–41.4 xPts
D11 OctH · Juventus1–11.1 xPts
W19 SepA · Udinese1–01.2 xPts
W12 SepA · Atalanta2–10.8 xPts
W7 SepH · Lecce1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AS Roma	Cagliari
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	High · 43	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	Yes	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Serie A 2026-2027, 24 Oct	3.3Serie A 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	412 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	373 km	1,412 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 4 / 5	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	4.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AS Roma Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Genoa (H) 2–0, 17 Oct

95P. Gollini(G)

3K. Koulierakis 5O. Ndicka 26L. Balerdi

2D. Rensch 61N. Pisilli 15M. de Roon 77Emanuele Lulli

86Rodrigo Mora 18M. Soulé

9S. Castro

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Cagliari Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-1-2 · vs Monza (A) 0–4, 19 Oct

1E. Caprile(G)

33A. Obert 15J. Rodríguez 26Y. Mina 2Zé Pedro

4Alessandro Romano 6H. Winks 8M. Adopo

70D. Maldini

18M. Nzola 31Paul Mendy

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AS Roma

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes 1 without recent minutes (no impact): Muhammed Bah

Cagliari Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −2.2% of weighted minutes

DEF Riyad Idrissi Rotation 6.47 Def −2.2%

Total impact vs full squads

AS Roma+0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Cagliari-0.1 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

AS Roma · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 0.75

Cagliari · Away 2.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	AS Roma	Cagliari
Inter	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 H
Atalanta	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 A
Lecce	W 4–0 A	W 1–0 H
Points	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

6 AS Roma wins1 draws1 Cagliari wins

Goals per game1.75 – 0.38 Over 2.538% Both scored25% Clean sheets63% · 25%

9 Feb 2026AS Roma2–0Cagliari
7 Dec 2025Cagliari1–0AS Roma
16 Mar 2025AS Roma1–0Cagliari
18 Aug 2024Cagliari0–0AS Roma
5 Feb 2024AS Roma4–0Cagliari
8 Oct 2023Cagliari1–4AS Roma

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AS Roma	Cagliari	Forecast
Scored per game	2.29	0.86
Conceded per game	0.43	1.00
Match goals	2.71	1.86	3.17
Over 1.5	86%	43%
Over 2.5	57%	29%	61%
Over 3.5	43%	14%
Both teams scored	29%	29%	52%
Clean sheets	71%	43%
Failed to score	14%	29%
Games	7	7

	AS Roma	Cagliari	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.00
Conceded per game	0.80	1.10
Match goals	3.00	2.10	3.17
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	61%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	52%
Clean sheets	60%	30%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AS Roma	Cagliari	League
Corners
Corners won	5.14	4.00
Corners conceded	2.57	6.29
Match total	7.71	10.29	9.38
Over 8.5	29% 2/7	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	14% 1/7	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	14% 1/7	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.29
Opponent cards	1.71	1.14
Match total	3.71	2.43	3.43
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	14% 1/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	0% 0/7

	AS Roma	Cagliari	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.60
Corners conceded	3.40	5.40
Match total	8.40	10.00	9.38
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.30
Opponent cards	2.00	1.30
Match total	4.00	2.60	3.43
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.