Monza
Attack−18%
Defense risk+18%
Our take
Napoli are slight favourites.
Napoli are the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Monza. Napoli are without A. Buongiorno. Monza have 5 days of rest, Napoli 4.2 and have to travel 663 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel663 kmRest days5 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 3
Monza23%
Draw24%
Napoli54%
Monza18%
Draw23%
Napoli59%
Monza22%
Draw24%
Napoli54%
Monza17%
Draw22%
Napoli61%
Monza23%
Draw23%
Napoli54%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 35 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monza)
11°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 3%
- Wind 3 km/h
- Humidity 84%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Monza and Napoli. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Napoli
+1.02
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.81xG against0.79
-
Trend
Monza
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Napoli
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Napoli
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Monza
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Monza
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Napoli
+1.02
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.81xG against0.79
-
Trend
Monza
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Monza
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Monza
7
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Defence
-
Insight
Napoli
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Napoli
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Monza
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Team strength
MonzaNapoli
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
61
34
AttackIn forecast
61
26
DefenceIn forecast
70
43
Form indexContext
44
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack+22%
Defense risk−14%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
MonzaNapoli
1.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
2.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
100%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
13.71
ShotsContext
16.71
5.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.43
43%
On target shareContext
33%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.86
74%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
3.83
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.14
Shots allowedContext
15.57
5.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.86
2.71
BlocksContext
4.40
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
64%
Save rateContext
74%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
376
PassesContext
510
306
Accurate passesContext
443
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.57
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.86
FoulsContext
8.57
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.86
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
0.86
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.61
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.90
ShotsContext
14.70
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
41%
On target shareContext
34%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
68%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
3.78
OffsidesContext
2.90
14.30
Shots allowedContext
16.20
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.90
BlocksContext
5.13
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
65%
Save rateContext
69%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
407
PassesContext
516
341
Accurate passesContext
450
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.80
FoulsContext
9.00
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monza
DLWLW
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km273 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 43 · 7 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Napoli
WDWLL
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel663 km1,067 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monza |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Serie A 2026-2027, 23 Oct | 4.2Serie A 2026-2027, 24 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 663 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 273 km | 1,067 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monza
Last XI · not confirmed
1N. Törnqvist(G)
44A. Carboni
2S. Goglichidze
60E. Kouadio
7Ricardo Mangas
14E. Akinsanmiro
8M. Foe-Ondoa
19S. Birindelli
46J. Robinson
47Dany Mota
9Gustavo Varela
Napoli
Last XI · not confirmed
1A. Meret(G)
5B. Badiashile
13A. Rrahmani
31S. Beukema
37L. Spinazzola
68S. Lobotka
6B. Gilmour
22G. Di Lorenzo
8S. McTominay
23Giovane
20L. Lucca
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monza
No reported absences
Napoli
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −11.8% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Buongiorno Starter 6.65 Def −11.8%
Total impact vs full squads
- Monza+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Napoli-0.6 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Monza · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Napoli · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Monza | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Inter | L 1–4 A | L 2–3 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Monza wins1 draws4 Napoli wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.83
Over 2.533%
Both scored17%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 19 Apr 2025Monza0–1Napoli
- 29 Sep 2024Napoli2–0Monza
- 7 Apr 2024Monza2–4Napoli
- 29 Dec 2023Napoli0–0Monza
- 14 May 2023Monza2–0Napoli
- 21 Aug 2022Napoli4–0Monza
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Monza | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.86 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.14 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.43 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 43% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 71% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 43% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Monza | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.86 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.14 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.30 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 40% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 71% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monza | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.60 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 0.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 1.29 | |
| Match total | 3.42 | 2.15 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Monza | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.26 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 2.70 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Monza7 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Napoli7 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Monza10 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
6
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
