Sassuolo vs Lazio – 27 Oct 2026

Serie A Gameweek 9 Tue, Oct 27 · 17:30 MAPEI Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia

Sassuolo 13th · 8 pts · 7 played DWLDL

VS— Compare

Lazio 2nd · 19 pts · 7 played WDWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lazio are slight favourites.

Lazio are the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sassuolo. Sassuolo are without I. Koné. Sassuolo have 3.2 days of rest, Lazio 2.9 and have to travel 347 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel347 kmRest days3.2 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Sassuolo30%

Draw26%

Lazio44%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.59

Sassuolo27%

Draw26%

Lazio47%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.57

Sassuolo30%

Draw26%

Lazio44%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.57

Sassuolo23%

Draw24%

Lazio52%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.79

Sassuolo30%

Draw24%

Lazio45%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.74

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 36 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Reggio Emilia)

12°CClear

Precipitation 7%
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 68%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Sassuolo

Lazio

33 L90 StrengthIn forecast 62

32 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

41 AttackIn forecast 53

32 DefenceIn forecast 63

32 Form indexContext 87

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sassuolo

Attack−15%

Defense risk+8%

Lazio

Attack+16%

Defense risk−7%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Sassuolo

Lazio

1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.57

1.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.67

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 57%

15.86 ShotsContext 12.71

6.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.29

41% On target shareContext 34%

9.57 Shots in the boxContext 6.86

60% Box shareContext 56%

11% ConversionContext 16%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.75

15.71 Shots allowedContext 12.43

6.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.71

4.43 BlocksContext 3.43

4.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

70% Save rateContext 85%

48% PossessionIn forecast 48%

446 PassesContext 446

387 Accurate passesContext 381

87% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.80 Team ratingContext 7.06

9.71 FoulsContext 12.00

11.43 Fouls sufferedContext 11.29

1.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.45

90% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.30 ShotsContext 11.90

5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

41% On target shareContext 39%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.40

62% Box shareContext 56%

11% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.83

15.20 Shots allowedContext 12.20

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

3.80 BlocksContext 3.00

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

67% Save rateContext 78%

51% PossessionIn forecast 48%

458 PassesContext 450

397 Accurate passesContext 388

87% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.92

9.80 FoulsContext 12.00

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sassuolo DWLDL

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,156 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 32 · 5 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

L16 OctA · Frosinone2–41.3 xPts
D11 OctH · AC Milan1–11.2 xPts
L18 SepA · Monza1–21.6 xPts
W13 SepH · Juventus3–21.1 xPts
D6 SepA · Bologna2–20.9 xPts

Lazio WDWWW

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel347 km1,051 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

Form 87 · 13 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected

W18 OctA · Juventus3–00.7 xPts
W11 OctH · Monza3–12.1 xPts
W19 SepA · Venezia2–02.2 xPts
D12 SepH · AC Milan2–21.5 xPts
W7 SepA · Udinese2–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sassuolo	Lazio
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Serie A 2026-2027, 24 Oct	2.9Serie A 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	347 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,156 km	1,051 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6	4.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sassuolo Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Frosinone (A) 2–4, 16 Oct

49A. Murić(G)

3J. Doig 15D. Ćaleta-Car 26C. Odenthal 20I. Van der Brempt

50D. Bakola 18N. Matić

45A. Laurienté 42K. Thorstvedt 10D. Berardi

94S. Esposito

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Lazio Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Juventus (A) 3–0, 18 Oct

35C. Mandas(G)

17Nuno Tavares 25Oliver Provstgaard 37J. Šutalo 15R. Floriani Mussolini

24K. Taylor 21R. Belahyane 16D. Frattesi

10M. Zaccagni 14T. Noslin 11G. Isaksen

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sassuolo Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −9.1% · Defence line −6.3% of weighted minutes

MID I. Koné Starter 6.97 Att −9.1% Def −5.3%
DEF Fali Candé Rotation 6.45 Def −1.0%

3 without recent minutes (no impact): E. Pieragnolo, D. Boloca, Y. Paz

Lazio Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −2.1% of weighted minutes

DEF Patric Rotation 6.68 Def −1.8%
DEF A. Furlanetto Depth 6.80 Def −0.3%

Total impact vs full squads

Sassuolo-0.5 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Lazio+0.6 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Sassuolo · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.33

Lazio · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 4-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Sassuolo	Lazio
AC Milan	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
Monza	L 1–2 A	W 3–1 H
Juventus	W 3–2 H	W 3–0 A
Bologna	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 A
Points	5 of 12 · 1.25 per game	10 of 12 · 2.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Sassuolo wins1 draws5 Lazio wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.50 Over 2.538% Both scored50% Clean sheets13% · 38%

9 Mar 2026Lazio2–1Sassuolo
14 Sep 2025Sassuolo1–0Lazio
26 May 2024Lazio1–1Sassuolo
21 Oct 2023Sassuolo0–2Lazio
3 May 2023Lazio2–0Sassuolo
15 Jan 2023Sassuolo0–2Lazio

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sassuolo	Lazio	Forecast
Scored per game	1.71	2.00
Conceded per game	2.00	0.57
Match goals	3.71	2.57	2.87
Over 1.5	100%	71%
Over 2.5	86%	57%	55%
Over 3.5	43%	29%
Both teams scored	100%	43%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	57%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	7	7

	Sassuolo	Lazio	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.60
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	3.50	2.60	2.87
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	55%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	90%	40%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sassuolo	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	4.29	5.14
Corners conceded	6.14	5.00
Match total	10.43	10.14	9.38
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.29	1.86
Opponent cards	2.00	3.29
Match total	3.29	5.15	3.43
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	86% 6/7
Over 4.5	29% 2/7	71% 5/7

	Sassuolo	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	4.90
Corners conceded	5.90	4.40
Match total	9.60	9.30	9.38
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.20
Opponent cards	2.40	2.80
Match total	3.80	5.00	3.43
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.