AC Milan
Attack−2%
Defense risk−9%
Our take
AC Milan are slight favourites.
AC Milan are the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AC Milan. AC Milan have 2.9 days of rest, Bologna 4.2 and have to travel 201 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel201 kmRest days2.9 · 4.2Matches / 14d4 · 2
AC Milan59%
Draw23%
Bologna18%
AC Milan55%
Draw24%
Bologna20%
AC Milan59%
Draw23%
Bologna18%
AC Milan52%
Draw25%
Bologna24%
AC Milan64%
Draw20%
Bologna16%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
12°COvercast
- Precipitation 14%
- Wind 2 km/h
- Humidity 70%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for AC Milan and Bologna. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
AC Milan
+0.70
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.97xG against1.27
-
Insight
AC Milan
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
AC Milan
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
AC Milan
Bologna
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
66
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
72
AttackIn forecast
35
69
DefenceIn forecast
48
74
Form indexContext
32
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack−15%
Defense risk+25%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
AC MilanBologna
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
100%
Scored inContext
57%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.29
ShotsContext
12.57
4.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
38%
On target shareContext
28%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
8.43
67%
Box shareContext
65%
16%
ConversionContext
7%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.83
9.57
Shots allowedContext
13.71
3.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
2.67
BlocksContext
4.14
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
75%
Save rateContext
67%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
583
PassesContext
438
522
Accurate passesContext
380
90%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.68
9.29
FoulsContext
12.71
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.20
ShotsContext
11.90
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
38%
On target shareContext
31%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
69%
Box shareContext
63%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.70
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.44
BlocksContext
3.80
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
78%
Save rateContext
60%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
556
PassesContext
437
498
Accurate passesContext
378
90%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.70
9.90
FoulsContext
12.20
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
LWDWW
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km3,430 km in 14d
Schedule load53%High
Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
Bologna
DLDWL
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel201 km1,227 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 32 · 5 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 53 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9Serie A 2026-2027, 25 Oct | 4.2Serie A 2026-2027, 24 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 201 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,430 km | 1,227 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 4 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Last XI · not confirmed
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
5K. De Winter
34Mario Gila
22Diego Moreira
14L. Modrić
80Y. Musah
21S. Chukwueze
11C. Pulišić
9Gonçalo Ramos
12A. Rabiot
Bologna
Last XI · not confirmed
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
3A. Theate
16N. Casale
36M. Darmian
33Juan Miranda
4T. Pobega
19L. Ferguson
20N. Zortea
28N. Cambiaghi
10F. Bernardeschi
91R. Piccoli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
No reported absences
Bologna
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- AC Milan+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bologna+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Bologna · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | AC Milan | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | W 3–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Sassuolo | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Lecce | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Lazio | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Torino | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 11 of 15 · 2.20 per game | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
6 AC Milan wins3 draws1 Bologna wins
Goals per game1.90 – 0.80
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 10%
- 3 Feb 2026Bologna0–3AC Milan
- 14 Sep 2025AC Milan1–0Bologna
- 9 May 2025AC Milan3–1Bologna
- 27 Feb 2025Bologna2–1AC Milan
- 27 Jan 2024AC Milan2–2Bologna
- 21 Aug 2023Bologna0–2AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.29 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 57% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| AC Milan | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.80 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.14 | 6.17 | |
| Match total | 6.14 | 10.50 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 3.29 | 4.14 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| AC Milan | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 6.80 | 9.11 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.80 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
AC Milan7 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
9
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Bologna7 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
10
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
