Fiorentina vs Atalanta

Serie A Gameweek 9 Thu, Oct 29 · 19:45 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

Fiorentina 18th · 4 pts · 7 played LWDLL

VS— Compare

Atalanta 11th · 9 pts · 7 played LLLWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

Atalanta are the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fiorentina. Fiorentina have 4.3 days of rest, Atalanta 4.2 and have to travel 247 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel247 kmRest days4.3 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Fiorentina39%

Draw26%

Atalanta36%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.45

Fiorentina32%

Draw27%

Atalanta41%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44

Fiorentina38%

Draw26%

Atalanta36%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.45

Fiorentina31%

Draw25%

Atalanta43%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.62

Fiorentina40%

Draw24%

Atalanta36%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.60

Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 33 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Firenze)

13°CMainly clear

Precipitation 11%
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 89%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Fiorentina 5 Scoring in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Fiorentina

Atalanta

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 59

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

42 AttackIn forecast 48

34 DefenceIn forecast 45

20 Form indexContext 21

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fiorentina

Attack0%

Defense risk+3%

Atalanta

Attack+11%

Defense risk−5%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Fiorentina

Atalanta

1.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.43

2.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.10

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.87

-0.45 Goals minus xGContext +0.33

71% Scored inContext 86%

0% Clean sheetsContext 14%

16.43 ShotsContext 13.14

5.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.57

33% On target shareContext 35%

10.14 Shots in the boxContext 8.83

61% Box shareContext 60%

7% ConversionContext 11%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.14 Shots allowedContext 18.00

5.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.86

2.00 BlocksContext 5.17

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.43

55% Save rateContext 76%

47% PossessionIn forecast 46%

390 PassesContext 475

328 Accurate passesContext 420

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.54 Team ratingContext 6.80

11.00 FoulsContext 10.29

12.43 Fouls sufferedContext 8.43

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.06

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.34

70% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.90 ShotsContext 13.10

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.78

32% On target shareContext 33%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.67

61% Box shareContext 63%

7% ConversionContext 11%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.20

13.90 Shots allowedContext 16.60

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90

2.40 BlocksContext 4.33

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.60

70% Save rateContext 78%

47% PossessionIn forecast 47%

388 PassesContext 472

324 Accurate passesContext 414

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.79

11.10 FoulsContext 11.80

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.40

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fiorentina LWDLL

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km496 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 20 · 4 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected

L18 OctH · Como1–31.0 xPts
L10 OctA · Genoa1–21.4 xPts
D20 SepH · Napoli1–11.2 xPts
W11 SepA · Venezia4–21.6 xPts
L5 SepH · Torino1–21.6 xPts

Atalanta LLLWL

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel247 km90 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 21 · 3 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -3.6 vs expected

L18 OctA · AC Milan2–30.7 xPts
W12 OctH · Venezia3–12.4 xPts
L20 SepA · Juventus0–20.8 xPts
L12 SepH · Cagliari1–22.0 xPts
L5 SepA · AS Roma1–20.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fiorentina	Atalanta
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.3Serie A 2026-2027, 25 Oct	4.2Serie A 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	247 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	496 km	90 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fiorentina Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Como (H) 1–3, 18 Oct

43David de Gea(G)

33Viery 5M. Pongračić 3R. Drăgușin 20Álex Jiménez

44N. Fagioli 27C. Ndour

25A. Njie 28Pote 30Franco Mastantuono

32Mateo Pellegrino

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Atalanta Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs AC Milan (A) 2–3, 18 Oct

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

47L. Bernasconi 23S. Kolašinac 31T. Kristensen 16R. Bellanova

8M. Pašalić 13Éderson 10L. Samardžić

11J. Rowe 90N. Krstović 17C. De Ketelaere

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fiorentina

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes 1 without recent minutes (no impact): R. Sottil

Atalanta Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −5.2% of weighted minutes

DEF I. Hien Rotation 6.75 Def −5.2%

Total impact vs full squads

Fiorentina+0.5 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Atalanta-0.4 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Fiorentina · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.25

Atalanta · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Fiorentina	Atalanta
Venezia	W 4–2 A	W 3–1 H
AS Roma	L 0–4 A	L 1–2 A
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

5 Fiorentina wins2 draws3 Atalanta wins

Goals per game1.40 – 1.30 Over 2.540% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%

22 May 2026Fiorentina1–1Atalanta
30 Nov 2025Atalanta2–0Fiorentina
30 Mar 2025Fiorentina1–0Atalanta
15 Sep 2024Atalanta3–2Fiorentina
2 Jun 2024Atalanta2–3Fiorentina
17 Sep 2023Fiorentina3–2Atalanta

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fiorentina	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	1.14	1.43
Conceded per game	2.43	1.57
Match goals	3.57	3.00	2.97
Over 1.5	100%	86%
Over 2.5	86%	71%	57%
Over 3.5	43%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	71%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	14%
Failed to score	29%	14%
Games	7	7

	Fiorentina	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.40
Conceded per game	1.80	1.50
Match goals	2.90	2.90	2.97
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	57%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fiorentina	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	5.29	3.43
Corners conceded	3.86	5.00
Match total	9.15	8.43	9.38
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.14	0.57
Match total	4.14	1.57	3.43
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	0% 0/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	0% 0/7

	Fiorentina	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	3.00
Corners conceded	3.90	4.50
Match total	8.40	7.50	9.38
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.30
Opponent cards	1.80	0.80
Match total	3.50	2.10	3.43
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.