Bundesliga Gameweek 17 Wed, Mar 4 · 19:30 Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Hamburger SV 11th · 26 pts · 23 played
0–1Full time
Bayer Leverkusen 6th · 40 pts · 23 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Hamburger SV23.2%fair odds 4.30
Draw25.6%fair odds 3.91
Bayer Leverkusen51.2%fair odds 1.95
Expected goals1.05 – 1.66total 2.71
Likeliest score1–112.2%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Hamburger SV

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Bayer Leverkusen

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Hamburger SV ↓ · Bayer Leverkusen →0123456+
07.310.49.25.12.10.70.3
16.312.29.65.32.20.70.3
23.66.15.02.81.20.40.1
31.32.11.81.00.40.10.0
40.30.60.50.30.10.00.0
50.10.10.10.10.00.00.0
6+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Hamburger SV goals, columns Bayer Leverkusen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–112.2%8.20
  • 0–110.4%9.58
  • 1–29.6%10.38
  • 0–29.2%10.87
  • 0–07.3%13.78
  • 1–06.3%15.77
  • 2–16.1%16.50
  • 1–35.3%18.70
  • 0–35.1%19.59
  • 2–25.0%19.82

Winning margin

2.5% Hamburger SV by 3+ fair 39.85
6.3% Hamburger SV by 2 fair 15.93
14.4% Hamburger SV by 1 fair 6.92
25.6% Draw fair 3.91
23.3% Bayer Leverkusen by 1 fair 4.29
15.9% Bayer Leverkusen by 2 fair 6.31
12.0% Bayer Leverkusen by 3+ fair 8.33

Goal distribution

Total goals

7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+

Hamburger SV goals

35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+

Bayer Leverkusen goals

19%0
32%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Hamburger SV win 23.2% 23.7% -0.5 pp
Draw 25.6% 27.4% -1.8 pp
Bayer Leverkusen win 51.2% 48.9% +2.3 pp
Over 2.5 50.9% 44.7% +6.3 pp
Both teams score 53.2% 48.7% +4.5 pp
Expected goals Hamburger SV 1.05 0.97 +0.08
Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen 1.66 1.50 +0.17

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Hamburger SV win23.2%4.30
  • Draw25.6%3.91
  • Bayer Leverkusen win51.2%1.95
  • Double chance Hamburger SV or draw48.8%2.05
  • Double chance Hamburger SV or Bayer Leverkusen74.4%1.34
  • Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw76.8%1.30
  • Draw no bet Hamburger SV31.2%3.20
  • Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen68.8%1.45

Goals

  • Over 0.592.7%1.08
  • Over 1.576.0%1.32
  • Over 2.550.9%1.96
  • Over 3.528.8%3.47
  • Over 4.513.9%7.20
  • Under 1.524.0%4.16
  • Under 2.549.1%2.04
  • Under 3.571.2%1.41

Both teams to score

  • Yes53.2%1.88
  • No46.8%2.14
  • Yes and over 2.541.0%2.44
  • Hamburger SV win and yes11.6%8.65
  • Draw and yes18.3%5.46
  • Bayer Leverkusen win and yes23.3%4.28

Team goals

  • Hamburger SV over 0.564.9%1.54
  • Hamburger SV over 1.528.2%3.55
  • Hamburger SV over 2.58.9%11.22
  • Bayer Leverkusen over 0.581.1%1.23
  • Bayer Leverkusen over 1.549.6%2.02
  • Bayer Leverkusen over 2.523.3%4.28
  • Hamburger SV clean sheet18.9%5.28
  • Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet35.1%2.85
  • Hamburger SV win to nil11.7%8.57
  • Bayer Leverkusen win to nil27.8%3.59

Handicap

  • Hamburger SV −1.58.8%11.38
  • Hamburger SV −2.52.5%39.85
  • Bayer Leverkusen +1.591.2%1.10
  • Bayer Leverkusen +2.597.5%1.03
  • Bayer Leverkusen −1.527.9%3.59
  • Hamburger SV +1.572.1%1.39

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored215 Favourite won57.2% Avg chance given to result43.3% 1X2 Brier0.559 Over 2.5 called right62.3% BTTS called right56.7%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2938.2%41.4%
40–50%6545.1%46.2%
50–60%6055.3%60.0%
60–70%3464.5%70.6%
70–80%1874.2%77.8%
80%+985.8%77.8%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 187 of 215 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55280.5475
Avg chance given to result43.6%43.2%
Favourite won57.8%58.3%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 187 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 215 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.